3 NBA Prop Bets to Target on 5/22/18
Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the NBA. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors
Chris Paul OVER 6.5 Assists (-114)
Chris Paul is averaging a career-low 5.9 assists per game in the playoffs, and frankly put, his teammates aren't makings shots when he passes to them. The Houston Rockets are shooting a combined 22-for-60 (36.7%) from the floor when Paul passes them the ball this series, but our models are optimistic tonight on Paul's assist numbers.
Paul owns a career-low 30.4% assist rate this postseason, which is probably due to the missed shots and playing with another distributor in James Harden. However, with his back against the wall in Game 4, our models predict Paul will dish out 9.7 assists.
Kevin Durant OVER 6.5 Rebounds (-114)
Kevin Durant took a small step back offensively in Game 3, but he also racked up six assists and six rebounds. So far in the playoffs, Durant has grabbed at least six rebounds in all seven of the Golden State Warriors' home games, and our models think he will do it again on Tuesday.
Durant is averaging 6.9 rebounds per 36 minutes in the playoffs this season, and considering he is producing 7.4 rebounds per game at home this postseason, our models like him to come down with 8.4 rebounds in Game 4.
Stephen Curry OVER 26.5 Points (-125)
We have swung and missed on Stephen Curry twice in this series, but as soon as we jumped off him in Game 3, he exploded for 35 points. Oracle Arena has been kind to Curry this postseason, and our models are looking for that to continue in Game 4.
So far through three home playoff games, Curry is averaging 30.3 points per game, and so far in the playoffs, Curry has a 27.4% usage rate on the road compared to 29.8% at home. Taking note of this, our models are projecting Curry for 30.7 points in Game 4.