The 5 Best Bets to Miss the 2018-19 NBA Playoffs

Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected playoff probability: 77.2%
Odds to miss the playoffs: +650

Here's our first example of a team that while we expect to make the playoffs, they can still offer some betting value.

At 77.2% to make the playoffs, that means we give the Oklahoma City Thunder a 22.8% chance of missing -- which would suggest an accurate betting line of +339. In contrast, the +650 odds you're getting imply them to have only a 13.3% chance of missing.

The Kevin Durant-less Thunder have won 47 and 48 games in the last two seasons, finishing as the 6-seed and the 4-seed in those years. The Western Conference is so competitive, though, that 48 wins was only 1 more than the 8-seed Minnesota Timberwolves and 2 more than the playoff-missing Denver Nuggets.

Last year was something of an outlier, as as only 41 wins were needed for a playoff spot in the two seasons before, but the West isn't going to get any easier this year with the arrival of LeBron James.

This year's Thunder team doesn't look much different than last year's did, and they will be returning 8 of the 9 players who saw at least 1,000 minutes for them in the 2017-18 season. They have lost Carmelo Anthony, but that shouldn't be overly impactful, as despite playing the team's third-most minutes and attempting the third-most field goals, he tied for only sixth on the team in offensive win shares added (1.2).

The additions they have made don't project to be especially big either, though, with Nerlens Noel coming in to provide depth at center while Dennis Schroder will take some backup point guard duties from Raymond Felton.

With the West getting even tougher, our models project the Thunder's win total to fall to 45.4 this year. While that is often good enough for a playoff spot in the West, it wasn't last season, and with how tight the race for the 8-seed was last year, there's a decent chance we see a quality team like OKC miss the postseason this year.