What It Means:

Rafaela made his first start in the big leagues on Wednesday and went 1-for-4 with a double, an RBI, and a run scored. He's taking a seat Friday while Trevor Story takes over at shortstop and bats seventh. Alex Verdugo is moving into the leadoff spot for Boston, followed by Rafael Devers batting second and Justin Turner hitting third. Triston Casas is cleaning things up for the Red Sox.

numberFire’s models project Story ($3,000) for 8.7 and Verdugo ($3,300) for 11.6 FanDuel points on Friday. Per our MLB Heat Map, the Red Sox's implied total is 5.34, second-highest of the day, and the game total is 9.5. Lyles is having another rough campaign in 2023, as he has a 5.22 SIERA and 16.0% strikeout rate while coughing up 2.09 home runs per nine innings off a 48.8% fly-ball rate. In his last five starts, Lyles has allowed at least four runs in each game, and in his last three outings, he's given up seven runs twice.