5 Under-the-Radar Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays for 4/20/16
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you realize by now the importance of being contrarian, especially in large-field tournaments. Being able to recognize which players are going to be owned by the majority of the field and to find players who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The purpose of this article will be to bring you some high-upside players who will likely go overlooked and give you an edge.
Rick Porcello, SP, Boston Red Sox
FanDuel Price: $7,400
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
This slate has some big name pitchers up top, but I expect the ownership will likely gravitate more towards the value plays, who are in much better spots. Among those value plays, Ian Kennedy, Ross Stripling, Joe Ross, and Drew Pomeranz all deserve consideration. On FanDuel, you can only pick one, though, which should leave Rick Porcello under-owned.
Why You Should Use Him:
Porcello was due for improvement this season after some extraordinary bad luck last year, but he has been more impressive than anyone could have hoped so far. While his ERA isn't pretty, Porcello has bested Toronoto -- one of the best lineups in recent history -- twice already to start the season and has a 0.89 WHIP and 30 percent strikeout rate to show for it.
Porcello will have things much easier tonight against the Rays, who ranked 23rd in wOBA against righties last year. The Rays were one of the few teams Porcello didn't struggle with last season, as he posted a 2.67 ERA in four starts against them. He also struck out 27 batters in 27 innings against Tampa Bay, which isn't surprising considering they had the seventh-highest strikeout rate against righties.
Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
FanDuel Price: $3,400
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
After a hot start, Corey Seager has cooled off considerably. The rookie shortstop has hits in just 2 of his last 20 at-bats and isn't likely to be popular tonight.
Why You Should Use Him:
Seager's outlook last night was slightly dampened when Julio Teheran was scratched and replaced by Williams Perez, who is much more of a ground-ball pitcher. If we loved Seager yesterday, we should against love him again tonight against Teheran, who has struggled his way to a 6.35 ERA through three starts. Teheran wasn't much better last year, posting a 4.24 SIERA. He struggled specifically against lefties, who maintained a .507 slugging percentage against him.
This all bodes well for the hard-hitting left-handed shortstop. In his short career, Seager has posted an improved slugging percentage, ISO, wOBA, fly-ball rate, and hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. He should have no problem with Teheran tonight.
Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee Brewers
FanDuel Price: $2,800
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Jonathan Lucroy has struggled this season, averaging just 6.9 FanDuel points per game.
Why You Should Use Him:
Lucroy will face off with lefty Tommy Milone today, who posted a 4.39 SIERA last season and posted some ugly splits against right-handed batters.
Throughout his career, Lucroy has significantly raised his slugging percentage, ISO, wOBA, fly-ball rate, and hard-hit rate against lefties.
This game will also be played at Miller Park, which has the fourth-highest park factor over the past three seasons. Vegas has Milwaukee projected for the fourth-highest implied team total tonight, and their cleanup hitter should be a big part of reaching that total.
Lucas Duda, 1B, New York Mets
FanDuel Price: $2,700
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
First base is as deep as ever, and Lucas Duda is off to a slow start, averaging just 7.3 FanDuel points. Don't expect him to be popular, outside of Mets stacks.
Why You Should Use Him:
Duda started the season slow, but like the rest of the Mets' lineup, the powerful left-hander is heating up.
He has now homered in consecutive games and looks to make that three tonight against right-hander Jeremy Hellickson. Hellickson had a 4.14 SIERA in 2015 and pitched worse to left-handed batters. This game is also being played at Citizens Bank Park, which has the highest home run park factor over the past three seasons.
86 of Duda's 112 career home runs have come against right-handers, which is no surprise when you look at the underlying numbers. Duda has elevated his career hard-hit rate against righties to 38.8 percent and his fly-ball rate to 48 percent. He's also significantly lowered his strikeout rate and raised his walk rate against righties.
Duda is a good bet for production tonight and is the one New York player who may not be overly popular.
Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
FanDuel Price: $2,600
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Ryan Howard has shown signs of life this season, but unfortunately, it hasn't yet translated to on-field production, as he is only averaging 7.7 FanDuel points. He won't be a popular option amid a deep first base pool.
Why You Should Use Him:
Howard's opponent on the mound will be Bartolo Colon, who -- along with a 4.02 SIERA -- posted the third-lowest power/finesse ratio in 2015. Colon's struggles were accentuated when pitching to left-handed batters, to whom he allowed a 40.6 percent fly-ball rate last season.
Enter Ryan Howard, a lefty with a career .297 batting average and .587 slugging percentage against finesse pitchers, as opposed to .221 and .451 marks against power pitchers.
As mentioned with Duda, this game will be played at a hitter's ball park, where Howard has some impressive splits -- especially against righties. Hitting against righties at home last season made Howard look like the elite power threat he was in the past, as he posted a .536 slugging percentage and .266 ISO, along with a 43.1 percent hard-hit rate.
Howard has been hitting the ball hard all season, and tonight may be the night some of those hard-hit balls turn into extra-base hits. Target him in tournaments tonight, especially if you are considering fading the Mets stack.
