MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 7/20/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Wilmer Flores To Record an RBI (+140)
The San Francisco Giants have a solid 4.46 implied run total today as they close out their series versus the Cincinnati Reds.
The Reds will have one of their exciting rookies on the mound, Andrew Abbott. While he's been off to a good start in his 47.2 innings pitched this season, some of his rates are outliers and unsustainable going forward.
When facing right-handed hitters this season, Abbott has allowed a 5.07 xFIP, .211 BABIP, 1.67 HR/9, .396 SLG, 61.5% fly-ball rate, and 38.1% hard-contact rate. His numbers are all over the place due to a small sample size, but he's due for some clear regression.
For context, the league average BABIP versus righties this season is .295, while we see Abbott at .211. He's massively overperforming, and we should target righties against him to jump on the coming regression.
We'll turn to Wilmer Flores, who has a strong 154 wRC+, .399 wOBA, .229 ISO, and 47.5% fly-ball rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. Flores is hot at the dish right now and in a great matchup to grab a simple RBI.
Michael Kopech Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
For a pitching prop today, let's go to under 4.5 strikeouts for Michael Kopech of the Chicago White Sox.
Kopech has been wildly inconsistent this season, and today's matchup against the New York Mets doesn't set up to be a good one. So far this year, Kopech has a 25.5% strikeout rate which is certainly very solid, but there's much more to his pitching than just that.
He also comes in with a horrible 13.9% walk rate, 1.87 HR/9, 48.6% fly-ball rate, and 14.4% barrel rate. Those are some really rough numbers, and while he has a strikeout rate that sits above the league average, he doesn't always get to show it off since he often gets into trouble.
Letting hitters on base for free with that super-high walk rate and allowing a ton of fly balls is a disaster waiting to happen. That has led him to not getting past the fifth inning in any of his last five starts, something we could easily see happen today.
When it comes to the Mets, they enter with a 20.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the fourth-lowest in the league. They are super disciplined at the plate and don't present a matchup where a pitcher would be racking up a ton of strikeouts. It's all about the under for Kopech today.
