MLB

Fantasy Baseball: 5 Hitters Due for Negative Home Run Regression in 2019

Matt Kupferle  —  @MKupferle Feb 22nd, 2019
Use your ← → (arrow) keys to browse the slideshow

J.D. Martinez, OF, Boston Red Sox

2018 - Home Runs: 43 (2nd), FB: 34.0%, HR/FB: 29.5%

One of the premier sluggers in the game, J.D. Martinez finished just behind Khristopher Davis in jacks last season, but the data sticks out a bit. He was below league average in fly-ball rate, but his HR/FB was almost 2.5 times the league average. That doesn't add up.

If we peer into Martinez's profile, he showed a similar oddity in 2017, when he smacked his way to 45 long balls with a 33.8% HR/FB. In that season, however, he posted a very healthy 43.2% fly-ball rate, which dropped down almost nine percentage points in 2018.

In 2016, spanning 460 plate appearances, Martinez hit a reasonable 22 home runs with an 18.0% HR/FB%.

After posting back-to-back seasons of 40-plus homers, it's hard betting against Martinez, and we still predict him for 42 homers in 2019. Just be aware that he is significantly outperforming league average rates, so those numbers could tumble.

Prev Next