MLB

5 MLB Hitters Most Likely to Regress Based on Their Batted-Ball Numbers

Ari Ross  —  @aross50 Dec 19th, 2016
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Nelson Cruz, OF, Seattle Mariners

LD%: 18.1% | Hard%: 36.4% | BABIP: .320 | Expected BABIP: .290 | ISO: .268 | Expected ISO: .206

Safeco Field has its advantages, especially for power hitters like Nelson Cruz. With a HR factor of 1.158, sixth-best in the MLB, the confines of Safeco Field are perfect for Cruz and his astronomical HR/FB ratios, which checked in at 26.2 percent in 2016.

Cruz's HR/FB ratio was third in the MLB this past season, and even if he could potentially keep it up with just an above average hard-hit rate and a below average line-drive percentage, Cruz, especially as he'll turn 37 midway through the 2017 season, should see some regression.

Cruz's BABIP was 30 points higher than expected this past year, while his ISO was 62 points higher than expected as the outfielder hit .287/.360/.555 with a .383 wOBA and 147 wRC+, posting a 4.2 fWAR, the second-highest mark of his career. But Steamer projects a significant regression, with Cruz projected to slash .264/.334/.497 with a .357 wOBA and 124 wRC+ coming with 20-plus point drops in both BABIP and ISO.

While the regression may not be so steep due to Safeco Field's park factor, Cruz certainly cannot sustain a .320 BABIP and .268 ISO with his line-drive and hard-hit percentages from 2016.

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