PGA Betting Guide for the Sentry Tournament of Champions
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Sentry Tournament of Champions based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
The 2020 calendar season kicks off with an ode to all the winners from the past 12 months -- a few of whom we hopefully profited from along the way. Since no one wins on the PGA Tour by accident, this is a loaded field even with a few notable names missing. Likewise, the list of prior TOC winners highlights that the cream rises to the top here -- of the few surprise winners throughout the year, very few measure up to the studs that normally own this course. Any mention of golfers longer than 50/1 is only a sprinkle, and we should be identifying which top name we want to back and loading up.
For more info on the Plantation Course at Kapalua, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Dustin Johnson (+1000) - A discounted DJ, you say? Show us where to sign! Johnson shook off some rust at the Presidents Cup and should hopefully be fully recovered from the surgery to repair a knee injury that clearly compromised him in the second half of last season. So now we see the former World No. 1 at double the odds of favorites Jon Rahm (+450) and Justin Thomas (+500). Johnson would not be here if he were not ready to roll, and he has absolutely owned Kapalua over his career. He is a two-time winner and always finds himself in the mix -- it's been a decade since he finished outside the top 10 at the Tournament of Champions, including a T4 in his title defense last year. DJ will likely be similar odds in most full 156-man fields this year -- 10/1 is massive value.
Paul Casey (+2200) - We all know Casey only wins at Innisbrook, but bear with me here. In just his third trip to Maui and returning for a back-to-back season for the first time, Casey is head-scratchingly long at the same odds as rookie Collin Morikawa. His ballstriking is as good as anyone in the field over the last 50 rounds, and he ranks third in strokes gained: off the tee and fourth in strokes gained: approach, according to stats on Fantasy National Golf Club.
Value Spots
Cameron Champ (+3300) - We'd love it if Champ had simply finished in the top five at the Safeway Open, as we'd probably get an extra few points on this number had he not won this fall. That makes two straight appearances for Champ at Kapalua, and he did well with a T11 finish in his debut last year. He is the longest player on Tour off the tee, and at one of the few tracks where distance indisputably matters, he is firmly in play to contend. A bet on Champ this week is a bet that he is on the verge of becoming one of the biggest names in the sport.
Matthew Wolff (+5000) - At double the odds of fellow rookie Morikawa, Wolff pops as an immediate relative value before considering how well his aggressive style can suit this course and this event. Wolff -- one of the premiere blue chip prospects to come out of the NCAA ranks this decade -- has been gifted a chip on his shoulder as golfers he dominated in college get more respect in the betting markets.
Long Shots
Keith Mitchell (+10000) - Mitchell certainly has the length to keep up with the big boys off the tee, finishing 28th and 10th the past two years in driving distance on the entire Tour. With the West Coast swing and dreaded poa annua greens just around the corner, Mitchell should be eager to get rolling on these bermuda surfaces while he can. He went toe-to-toe with Brooks Koepka (not in field) and Rickie Fowler (+1200) on his way to winning the Honda Classic last year, so we know he's not intimidated by the big names at the top of the market. He's live at 100/1.
