So, you may have heard -- Maryland-Baltimore County beat Virginia on Friday night. The 16 seed Retrievers will be must-see TV as they take on 9 seed Kansas State with a Sweet 16 berth on the line.
But there are plenty of other intriguing games on the docket, and there are some good bets out there, too.
Using our models as a guide, below are our best bets for Sunday.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
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(11) Syracuse vs. (3) Michigan State
Over 129.5 (4-star rating out of 5)
Our models have this as one of the day's premier bets, giving the over a 69.01% chance of hitting.
Per KenPom, Syracuse and Michigan State are two of the best defensive teams in the nation, with each ranking in the top 11 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and Cuse plays at the eighth-slowest pace. Wait, we like the over?
Yep.
MSU is ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency, and we have the Spartans as a 5.55-point favorite with a 72.2% win probability. Michigan State is going to want to speed up the Orange, and if they get out to a lead, Cuse won't have any choice but to play faster.
The last time Syracuse faced an elite offense, they gave up 78 points to North Carolina in the ACC Tournament, and MSU just let Bucknell, a team with KenPom's 90th-best offense, rack up 78 points on Friday.
We project these two teams to combine for 138.9 points, nearly 10 points more than the current over/under.
(7) Nevada vs. (2) Cincinnati
Over 136.5 (4-star)
Cincinnati is outstanding defensively, ranking second in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they play at a snail's pace (327th in adjusted tempo). But just like the last game, our models have this one sailing past the 136.5-point over/under as we project a total of 146.9 points.
Nevada can fill it up -- they're eighth in adjusted offense -- and Cincy is pretty good on offense, too, as they sit 50th, per KenPom. There have been at least 140 total points in each of Nevada's last 14 games, and while they haven't faced a truly elite defense like the Bearcats' D, Nevada scored 79 and 90 in two March meetings with San Diego State, a team ranked 33rd in adjusted defensive efficiency.
We have the over hitting 71.01% of the time.
(13) Marshall vs. (5) West Virginia
Marshall +12 (3-star)
Our models project West Virginia to win this in-state battle by 7.0 points, and the spread is 12.0 points. We think Marshall covers 64.07% of the time.
It's eerily similar to the Herd's situation in the first round. Marshall was a 13.5-point dog to Wichita State, and our models had them covering 64.07% of the time.
WVU had a 13-14 record against the spread (ATS) as a favorite this season, including a 4-6 mark against non-conference teams. The Thundering Herd were a perfect 8-0 ATS when playing on one day of rest, and they were 21-11 overall this season ATS.