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tony elliott
Lynch for D Thomas trade
Ive got the chance to trade Marshawn lynch for Demaryius Thomas in a ppr league. Should I take the offer? Value for Value
  • 0
    Justin Roland (308 Reputation Points)
    Since we are on Numberfire, which stresses the importance of the numbers, I felt that I had to answer this question again. In some circumstances D.Thomas for Lynch would be a good trade. In this instance, with his depth at WR, and lack at RB, it would be an awful trade. Lets play it by the numbers. Lets assume NF is right about Lynch and DT. We can factor their potential in later, but for now, NF's projections will be taken literally.

    Assuming the WR will play the slot every week since the position is strong on this team, lets crunch the numbers. Lynch, Martin, White, Crabtree, and Keenan Allen will combine for 1382 points as the 2 RB's and the 3 WRs over the course of the season.

    I was generous and counted on him having a scrub like Vereen MJD or Spiller. They are all supposed to score 175 in a PPR league, so they make a nice example.

    Add DT, Subtract Lynch. This team then loses the production of Keenan Allen. A valuable player who can't even start based on roster composition. We must now add a RB scrub Vereen MJD or Spiller.

    The new lineup of Doug Martin, Scrub, DT, Roddy White, and Michael Crabtree will combine for 1252 points.
    That is a difference of 150 points or a whopping 9.375 points per game deficit with DT. So maybe Lynch isn't as good, and DT explodes. If you think that DT will outscore Lynch by 150 points this fantasy season, or 10 points a game, this is a good trade. Otherwise, it is always wise to consult the numbers, and the numbers say no.
    2 Comments
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    Justin Roland (308 Reputation Points)
    Sorry guys, I just double checked my math and I didn't add correctly, so this is incorrect, NF really needs to allow answers to be edited. My bad guys, disregard these numbers as I screwed up
    ↳
    Sahib Bennett (320 Reputation Points)
    The number might be messed up, but the theory is absolutley on point. In a vacuum, Lynch for DT is a no branier. But due to Tony's RB2, its not as easy. But Tony, if you are willing to scrub the waiver wire for RB backups to take fliers on, this could be a great trade for you.
  • 0
    m f (500 Reputation Points)
    Yes. Even if I had scrubs for other RB's I would make this trade, but then again I don't trust Lynch this year.
  • 0
    Jason Barney (422 Reputation Points)
    I like Lynch more than most. I think the Hawks will feed him and get as much out of him as they can. That being said, I'd trade Lynch for Demaryius all day long, especially in PPR. DT is primed for a monster season.
  • 0
    Kiki G. (540 Reputation Points)
    Dude, not even close! Thomas all day long- Lynch isn't half the player he was last yr (Holdout; Contract; Age; No longer a Hawk next yr; Cap cost will lean towards Wilson next yr) NOW, would you want to go balls out with that in your head? I don't think so... Thomas is projected to be in the area of 1300-1400 Rec. Yds Lynch will have his rushing yds, but no way will he have anywhere near the rec. yds of Thomas- Lynch projection 250 yds- Jump all over that bro, that's NFL's best QB go to man!!! Good Luck
    4 Comments
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    Justin Roland (308 Reputation Points)
    You have to factor in value over replacement, and he has startable backups at WR. He would be Doug Martin and scrubs at RB and that is a recipe for disaster
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    Kiki G. (540 Reputation Points)
    Yeah that's true- Maybe I got to excited- Great point!!!
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    Jason Barney (422 Reputation Points)
    Shouldn't we wait for the season to begin before declaring Lynch as not being "half the player he was last yr?" For a player to become half of what he once was in eight months is pretty dramatic.
    ↳
    Kiki G. (540 Reputation Points)
    Lynch will be the next Terrell Owens of old this year!!!
  • 0
    Justin Roland (308 Reputation Points)
    If Lynch is beast mode this year, its a bad trade. It depends on how serious you take all the question marks about Lynch. his age, his insane volume over the past few seasons, blah blah blah, i would probably keep Lynch. If you have another back better than Lynch and are desperate for WR, maybe.
    3 Comments
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    tony elliott (500 Reputation Points)
    Ive got doug martin but not much after that. I have k allen, Roddy, crabtree, britt and j hunter at wr
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    Kevin Waida (541 Reputation Points)
    With how deep receivers are (and how shallow good RBs are), i think it's imperative to stay on the RB side. much more likely to get a breakout WR from your group than et a good RB off waivers
    ↳
    Justin Roland (308 Reputation Points)
    If all you have behind him is Doug martin, you have to keep Lynch. Your WR's can hold their own. Roddy is undervalued, Crabtree and Hunter are breakout candidates
  • -1
    Tristan Marchand (429 Reputation Points)
    Heck yes
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