What It Means:

Gabbert is the favorite to start after getting most of the first-team reps this offseason. "Many in the organization" see him as a better fit than Colin Kaepernick, who missed OTAs and was limited at minicamp. Even with Kaepernick ready for training camp, it sounds like the starting job is Gabbert’s to lose. The 49ers can potentially save $2 million in roster bonuses from benching Kaepernick.

Among passers with at least 100 drop backs, Gabbert and Kaepernick finished 38th and 39th, respectively, in Passing Net Expected Points per drop back last season. We project Kaepernick to win the starting job, though he could lose it. Our algorithms give him a line of 2,979 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, as well as 87 rushes for 394 yards and 3 touchdowns.