Sure, in the grand scheme of life, getting your brackets busted on the first day of March Madness isn't a big deal, but it sure is disappointing when your Elite 8 picks get bounced because they played poorly against a weaker opponent.
Sometimes, relying on the gritty, tested teams that consistently give it their all is a smart route to go, as these teams tend to be in the mix near each and every final buzzer.
Anything can happen in college basketball once the calendar flips to March, but which teams might be the safest squads in the field of 68?
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Baylor Bears went from unranked and off-the-radar in the preseason to the 13th-best team by our Sports Reference, and 12th in adjusted defensive rating. The Bears are a safe bet to handle New Mexico State, but they could face an inconsistent threat in the second round.
9. Dayton Flyers, 7 Seed, South Region
Dayton is top 50 in adjusted offensive rating and defensive rating, culminating in the 37th-ranked nERD score. They also grade out as a consistent squad overall. However, their opening opponent -- the Wichita State Shockers -- rank 10th in nERD overall. That's a tough draw for the Flyers.
8. Northern Kentucky Norse, 15 Seed, South Region
The Northern Kentucky Norse may have shown consistency this season, but they've got their work cut out for them against the Kentucky Wildcats in the first round. Kentucky's nERD of 19.39 ranks fourth overall, and the Norse's nERD is just 0.90, meaning they're about an average Division I team. Despite ranking in the 72nd percentile offensively and 64th defensively, they might not have the upside to challenge a heavy favorite.
7. Troy Trojans, 15 Seed, East Region
Similar to Northern Kentucky, Troy's consistency earned them just a 15 seed. Their nERD of 1.14 is a smidgeon better, but Duke's 17.12 nERD is 11th in the nation.
When adjusting for opponent, Troy ranks just 103rd in points per 100 possessions. Defensively, they're 283rd.
6. Minnesota Golden Gophers, 5 Seed, South Region
The Minnesota Golden Gophers finished the season ranked 31st in nERD (12.04), thanks primarily to their defense, which finished in the 92nd percentile. They finished ninth in adjusted defensive rating overall.
Offensively, they were a respectable 73rd, and this consistent team that plays tough defense could end the tournament hopes of the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders early on.
5. Winthrop Eagles, 13 Seed, South Region
The south is really representing with this consistency thing. The Winthrop Eagles have a nERD of 3.20, 112th in the nation and 55th among the field of 68. They rank 148th in adjusted offensive rating and 144th in adjusted defensive rating. However, hanging with Butler, who ranks 23rd in nERD and 11th in consistency in the field, might not be doable unless they can break out of their consistent style.
4. UNC Wilmington Seahawks, 12 Seed, East Region
UNC Wilmington is a pretty solid squad despite the 12 seed they were given. The Seahawks rank 61st in nERD in the nation and sit in the 98th percentile in offensive rating. Even when adjusting for opponent, they're a top-35 offensive unit.
They do draw our ninth-ranked team in the first round, the Virginia Cavaliers. Virginia is also a top-35 offense but are the top-ranked defense by adjusted defensive rating. They are, though, the fourth-least consistent team in the field, meaning that the Seahawks could stick around if Virginia plays to their lowest potential.
3. Maryland Terrapins, 6 Seed, West Region
The Maryland Terrapins sit around the 75th percentile in offense and defense, per our metrics, but they're in the 32nd in pace, meaning they like to slow it down. That combined with their consistent play suggests they can impose their will against a weaker opponent. However, the Xavier Musketeers are one of the least consistent teams in the tournament and actually have a higher nERD (11.06). than Maryland does (10.41).
2. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles, 14 Seed, West Region
The Florida Gulf Coast Eagles sit 114th in nERD overall but have a pretty solid balance, with an offense in the 93rd percentile and a defense in the 72nd. That does lead to a nERD of just 3.17 points, though, despite the consistency from game to game.
But they could be in a similar situation as UNC Wilmington. The Florida State Seminoles are the third-least consistent team in the field of 68 despite percentile ranks of 94th in offense and 98th in defense. If the Eagles bring their typical style of play -- in the 40th percentile in pace -- and can slow down Florida State (80th percentile in pace), they could stick around into the second half.
1. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, 12 Seed, South Region
Uh oh. Middle Tennessee is shaping up to be a sharp 12-over-5 pick, even with Minnesota's consistent play. No team has been more reliable game-to-game than Middle Tennessee, according to our algorithms, and the 54th-ranked team by nERD (9.41) could give the Golden Gophers (12.04) a run for their money.
The Blue Raiders boast the 59th-ranked offense by adjusted offensive rating, which will have its hands full against Minnesota's 9th-ranked defense, but the close nERD and consistency scores suggest this one will come down to the wire.