NBA
NBA Betting Guide for 3/12/21: One Underdog the Public and Algorithm Are Leaning Toward

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)

Cleveland Cavaliers at New Orleans Pelicans

This game pits teams with nearly identical records against one another. The Cleveland Cavaliers are 14-22, and the New Orleans Pelicans are 15-22. Despite that, our team rankings view them very differently: the Pels rank 14th in the NBA, and the Cavs are 29th.

Their respective nERD scores (which indicate ultimate winning percentage) suggest the Pelicans play like a team that should have a point differential of 0.0. The Cavaliers' expected point differential, derived from their nERD score, is -6.8. So the 7.0-point spread (favoring the home side) is right on.

Our simulations do like the Cavs to play closer to the 6 than the 7, as they are 54.5% likely to cover that spread. It's just a one-star recommendation (out of five), according to our algorithm, but the betting public is backing that side, as well.

oddsFire shows that 53% of the spread bets in this game have been placed in favor of the Cavaliers, and that also comes with 61% of the money on those bets.

numberFire's algorithm also likes the under (229.0) and considers it 61.1% likely to occur. This goes against the public (and some heavy money that raised the line from 226.5.

Yes, the Pelicans lead the NBA in their rate of games that hit the over (70.3%), but the Cavaliers have done it in just 41.7% of their games -- the second-lowest rate in the NBA -- and have outperformed opponent's defensive rating just over a quarter of the time.

Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls

The algorithm likes another under for this game, which is pretty standard. The total is listed at 221.5, ultimately unchanged from the open but having dropped to 220.5 for a time. This is despite heavy action on the over by way of 74% of the bets and 83% of the money.

Our algorithm is anticipating a tight game between these two teams floating around .500, and it projects the Heat to win 52.5% of the time outright by an average score of 107.1 to 106.4. That's a projected point total of just 213.5, well off the pace of the posted over/under. That's why the algorithm sees this game staying under 63.4% of the time, good for an expected return of 21.6%.

The Chicago Bulls' games have went over 54.3% of the time (a little ahead of the full-season over rate of 52.2% across the NBA). Meanwhile, the Miami Heat have gone over just 45.9% of the time

There's also some love for the Bulls' moneyline here, despite our algorithm's preference for the Heat outright. Chicago's moneyline can be bet at +116, suggesting win odds of 46.3%. We view them as 47.5% likely to win, giving the Chicago moneyline a 1-star rating out of 5.

Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Lakers

The Los Angeles Lakers generally receive a lot of action from the betting public, and that's the case again for their game against the Indiana Pacers.

oddsFire shows the spread data as 84% of the tickets and 90% of the money on the Lakers, and 85% of the tickets and 93% of the money for the moneyline is on LA, as well.

Again, based on nERD ratings, the Lakers have an estimated point differential of 4.4 points, and the Pacers -- completely league average -- are at a 0.0. That makes sense with the 4.5-point spread.

But once accounting for team context and home court and other trends, the Lakers are winning this game by an average score of 111.1 to 103.5, per our model. That's a 7.6-point gap.

They're also coming out as 76.1% likely outright to win this game despite their moneyline of -210 (which implies odds of "only" 67.7%). The Lakers' moneyline is actually the algorithm's preferred play. It's rated as a three-star recommendation out of five. The spread (and once again, the under) is listed as a one-star recommendation.

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