NCAAF
College Football Market Share Report: Week 6
Brian Robinson Jr. scored four times for Alabama on Saturday thanks to a massive amount of carries. What other market shares standing out heading into Week 6 of the college football season?

Since many of the 2018 law changes that marked the return of college football daily fantasy, it has been quickly growing. After all, more individuals watched the 2020 National Championship Game than any other non-NFL sporting event.

With so many eyeballs on the games, and some monster statistics put up by the elite players in the sport, it is natural for many to gravitate to playing daily fantasy instead of traditional betting. FanDuel offers college football contests each weekend, which can include Thursday, Friday, and Saturday main slates -- depending on game volume.

College football is a unique challenge for DFS, as a lot of necessary information is not easily found. Often, injury news is reported through the schools themselves and newspaper beat reporters. It can also be particularly difficult to find accurate information on which players are on the field, who has the best usage, and where inefficiencies in the salary cap model may reside.

The latter point is the premise for this piece, which in addition to numberFire's betting guides and daily fantasy helpers, is designed to help you find out which college football players are on the field and seeing work.

With that in mind, let's examine the market shares for players on Saturday's main slate on FanDuel.

Note: Players with fewer than 10 pass attempts, 10 rushing attempts, and 5 targets in the previous week will not be featured but may still be viable in daily fantasy formats. For players returning from off weeks, previous reports will contain their most recent sample.

Quarterbacks

PlayerTeam
Name
Week 5
Attempts
2021
Attempts
Per
Game
2021
Season-Long
YPA
Rush
Attempts
Per Game
Rushing
Yards
Per
Game
Hank BachmeierBOIS4937.08.173.214.8
Max JohnsonLSU4636.08.132.810.0
Bo NixAUB4429.86.573.226.6
Brennan ArmstrongUVA4444.68.772.232.8
Luke DotySCAR3629.06.602.08.7
Henry ColombiTTU3419.710.141.014.3
Sean CliffordPSU3330.88.693.237.0
Sam HowellUNC3230.89.704.085.4
Jordan TravisFSU3215.06.134.351.5
Spencer PetrasIOWA3027.06.942.06.2
Matt CorralMISS3032.39.405.055.3
Cade McNamaraMICH2916.48.912.42.6
Taulia TagovailoaMD2834.68.552.820.4
Max DugganTCU2826.88.419.047.0
Malik CunninghamLOU2632.08.129.074.2
Spencer RattlerOU2632.47.753.822.8
Bryce YoungALA2630.09.090.25.0
C.J. StroudOSU2331.010.430.810.3
Casey ThompsonTEX2215.29.302.428.6
Drew PyneND2215.07.470.09.0
Jack CoanND2229.87.381.88.2
Zach CalzadaTXAM2025.85.761.816.2
Baylor RomneyBYU1915.011.001.07.7
Hendon HookerTENN1918.09.344.849.2
Will LevisUK1723.68.383.425.2
Adrian MartinezNEB1725.09.747.087.7
KJ JeffersonARK1318.010.065.857.2
Stetson BennettUGA1110.312.611.520.8


This week is a great lesson on why volume is not everything in college football. Bo Nix ($6,800) is untouchable this weekend despite a monstrous 27.6 FanDuel points on the road against Louisiana State last weekend. Georgia held Arkansas to just 162 total yards of offense in their 37-0 win over the 8th-ranked Razorbacks, and Nix has not been the most efficient passer himself (6.57 yards per attempt). Nix is an easy cross-off in that matchup -- even at home.

With that matchup in mind, Arkansas's KJ Jefferson ($8,900) is an interesting spot to rebound at a lowry salary against Mississippi. Ole Miss is giving up 5.04 yards per play despite having Austin Peay (FCS) and Tulane in half their contests with a significant athletic advantage, and that led to them getting bludgeoned by Alabama last week. Jefferson's rushing upside is apparent inside the 5.8 attempts per game, and he has cashed in on a pair of scores as well. Combined with his solid 10.06 yards per attempt throwing, he is a tremendous budget option to find a dual-threat quarterback with QB1 upside.

With an equal opponent alongside, Spencer Rattler ($8,800) may never get lower in terms of both fantasy production and salary. Rattler only threw 26 times last Saturday against Kansas State, likely in a smart effort to keep the Wildcats from pounding Oklahoma in time of possession. The game environment should be perfect for Rattler this weekend in the "Red River Rivalry" against Texas. Rattler and the Sooners are 3.5-point favorites in a game with a massive, 63.5-point total. For the fans of trends, Oklahoma's quarterback has thrown at least three touchdowns in every contest with Texas since 2018 -- including Rattler last year.

Running Backs

Player Team
Name
Week 5
Total
Opps
Week 5
Carries
Season
Carries
Season
Rush
Share %
Week 5
Targets
Season
Target
Share %
Bijan Robinson TEX 38 35 105 52.2% 3 10.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. ALA 36 36 73 43.7% 0 3.4%
Tyler Allgeier BYU 26 22 102 60.7% 4 6.0%
Tyler Goodson IOWA 22 19 99 56.6% 3 11.6%
Hassan Haskins MICH 20 19 80 35.4% 1 3.4%
Zach Evans TCU 20 15 57 39.0% 5 8.3%
Jashaun Corbin FSU 19 14 62 42.8% 5 13.1%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. UK 19 19 104 63.0% 0 5.9%
Jalen Mitchell LOU 18 17 77 45.0% 1 3.9%
Blake Corum MICH 17 15 84 37.2% 2 12.4%
Mike Hollins UVA 16 10 26 22.8% 6 7.6%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio BOIS 16 10 36 23.8% 6 8.2%
Zamir White UGA 16 16 53 27.2% 0 0.9%
Kyren Williams ND 16 13 77 58.3% 3 8.7%
Kevin Harris SCAR 15 11 46 30.3% 4 11.3%
Isaiah Spiller TXAM 15 15 67 48.9% 0 10.6%
Tiyon Evans TENN 15 15 57 27.7% 0 5.3%
Ty Chandler UNC 14 12 74 52.1% 2 3.4%
Kennedy Brooks OU 14 14 53 37.1% 0 0.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. MISS 14 11 36 23.2% 3 7.8%
John Lovett PSU 14 10 23 15.5% 4 3.9%
Wayne Taulapapa UVA 13 11 27 23.7% 2 2.2%
Jaquez Yant NEB 13 13 18 7.5% 0 0.0%
Trevion Cooley LOU 12 11 21 12.3% 1 1.9%
SaRodorick Thompson TTU 12 11 31 22.3% 1 0.7%
Tank Bigsby AUB 12 9 74 46.3% 3 4.9%
James Cook UGA 12 12 34 17.4% 0 6.8%
Rahmir Johnson NEB 12 11 54 22.5% 1 4.0%
Kendall Milton UGA 12 12 36 18.5% 0 1.7%
Noah Cain PSU 11 11 59 39.9% 0 6.5%
Kenny McIntosh UGA 11 10 29 14.9% 1 5.1%
Marcus Pierce Jr. TENN 11 11 24 11.7% 0 0.0%
Jerrion Ealy MISS 11 9 40 25.8% 2 7.0%
Len'Neth Whitehead TENN 11 10 15 7.3% 1 0.8%
Master Teague III OSU 10 10 39 25.2% 0 1.3%
Ivory Kelly-Martin IOWA 10 8 32 18.3% 2 3.9%
Devon Achane TXAM 10 8 43 31.4% 2 9.3%


There are two clear options for running back from the table, and the name of the game is "Robinson". Bijan Robinson ($11,200) and Brian Robinson Jr. ($8,800) both had at least 10 more opportunities than the next highest back, and both are tremendously talented backs in great game environments. Coming off a rib injury, Alabama's Robinson Jr. saw 36 carries (and scored four times) against Ole Miss. The backfield could be primarily his for good now, as Jase McClellan, unfortunately, suffered a season-ending knee injury. Bijan Robinson has had the backfield to himself, but it was nice to see his carry total balloon in Week 5. He is the perfect stacking partner for Rattler if assuming a positive game script for Texas.

Kyren Williams ($8,500) does not pop off this chart, but Notre Dame faced an exclusively negative game script against Cincinnati. The most encouraging news for Williams is that his 58.3% rush share is growing, but his passing-game work is, too. Chris Tyree ($5,600) was limited to just five carries and two targets, and Williams himself saw three targets in addition to the bulk of the rushing work (16 carries). The backfield is trending toward Williams, and he now gets a Virginia Tech defense that struggled against West Virginia's star running back Leddie Brown. Brown averaged 8.5 yards per rush and scored in the 27-21 win in Week 3.

A running back that might see some buzz is Zach Evans ($10,000), but I have my concerns. Evans may see an uptick in scoring chances in a game with a 61.5-point total. Texas Christian is just a 1.5-point road favorite against Texas Tech, and numberFire's model actually prefers Texas Tech to win. Texas Tech limited Leddie Brown to just 57 yards rushing last week, Bijan Robinson did not score against them, and Texas Tech is actually 57th overall against the run in terms of yards per game. Passing is the path of least resistance against the Red Raiders, so while Evans may have more chances to score, he may also not be in the best matchup to pile up yards.

Wide Receivers

Player Team
Name
Week 5
Targets
Week 5
Target
Share
Week 5
Yards
Share
Total
2021
Targets
2021
Target
Share
Total
2021
Yardage
Share
Josh Downs UNC 13 41.9% 52.3% 56 38.4% 40.3%
Michael Mayer ND 12 29.3% 36.2% 46 26.6% 25.7%
Stefan Cobbs BOIS 11 25.6% 34.0% 18 10.6% 16.9%
Billy Kemp IV UVA 11 26.8% 30.2% 44 19.6% 17.6%
Jahan Dotson PSU 11 37.9% 42.2% 47 30.7% 31.3%
Kaylon Geiger TTU 10 29.4% 30.0% 29 21.2% 20.6%
Avery Davis ND 10 24.4% 15.2% 26 15.0% 17.3%
Gunner Romney BYU 9 32.1% 17.1% 26 19.5% 24.0%
Jack Bech LSU 9 21.4% 25.8% 25 14.2% 16.7%
Rakim Jarrett MD 9 25.7% 6.4% 36 19.8% 17.6%
Keytaon Thompson UVA 9 22.0% 20.5% 32 14.3% 14.5%
Derius Davis TCU 8 28.6% 19.2% 20 18.5% 14.6%
Braden Lenzy ND 8 19.5% 23.7% 27 15.6% 12.6%
Demetris Robertson AUB 8 18.2% 20.7% 25 15.2% 14.3%
Roman Wilson MICH 8 26.7% 32.0% 12 13.5% 16.0%
John Samuel Shenker AUB 8 18.2% 35.2% 23 14.0% 19.7%
Velus Jones Jr. TENN 8 42.1% 35.1% 22 16.5% 21.7%
Kayshon Boutte LSU 8 19.0% 39.1% 42 23.9% 28.5%
Octavius Evans BOIS 7 16.3% 21.9% 22 12.9% 14.1%
Kobe Hudson AUB 7 15.9% 6.9% 27 16.5% 18.1%
Sam LaPorta IOWA 7 21.2% 17.3% 33 25.6% 27.1%
Deion Smith LSU 7 16.7% 3.1% 22 12.5% 11.7%
Cornelius Johnson MICH 7 23.3% 18.6% 17 19.1% 27.0%
Ainias Smith TXAM 7 38.9% 21.6% 31 20.5% 19.1%
Chris Olave OSU 6 22.2% 35.7% 35 23.5% 22.2%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba OSU 6 22.2% 19.8% 27 18.1% 20.8%
Camren McDonald FSU 6 23.1% 34.5% 19 13.9% 13.7%
Neil Pau'u BYU 6 21.4% 20.0% 32 24.1% 25.0%
Wan'Dale Robinson UK 6 35.3% 74.7% 44 37.0% 44.9%
Dontayvion Wicks UVA 6 14.6% 28.0% 40 17.9% 27.1%
Cedric Tillman TENN 6 31.6% 32.4% 19 14.3% 13.7%
Treylon Burks ARK 6 40.0% 11.5% 36 37.1% 39.5%
Brian Thomas Jr. LSU 6 14.3% 9.8% 15 8.5% 9.5%
Marshon Ford LOU 6 25.0% 11.0% 31 20.1% 17.7%
Jameson Williams ALA 6 26.1% 27.0% 28 19.3% 24.3%
Arland Bruce IV IOWA 6 18.2% 15.2% 9 7.0% 5.1%
Khalil Shakir BOIS 6 14.0% 18.0% 43 25.3% 34.3%
Loic Fouonji TTU 6 17.6% 19.0% 9 6.6% 9.7%
Xavier Worthy TEX 6 27.3% 4.9% 26 23.6% 24.8%
Dontay Demus Jr. MD 5 14.3% 35.5% 36 19.8% 32.3%
Parker Washington PSU 5 17.2% 15.1% 32 20.9% 23.2%
KeAndre Lambert-Smith PSU 5 17.2% 12.6% 24 15.7% 15.6%
Jahleel Billingsley ALA 5 21.7% 19.5% 14 9.7% 11.9%
Braylon Sanders MISS 5 18.5% 15.0% 21 16.3% 13.4%
Justin Marshall LOU 5 20.8% 14.9% 19 12.3% 12.3%
Dontario Drummond MISS 5 18.5% 20.2% 31 24.0% 31.2%
Joshua Moore TEX 5 22.7% 9.2% 17 15.5% 7.4%
Michael Woods II OU 5 20.0% 12.9% 25 14.9% 13.6%
Kurt Rafdal BOIS 5 11.6% 11.1% 8 4.7% 3.7%
Jordan Watkins LOU 5 20.8% 22.1% 25 16.2% 16.2%
Jadon Jackson MISS 5 18.5% 14.1% 5 3.9% 2.5%
Jeshaun Jones MD 5 14.3% 9.9% 24 13.2% 14.0%

It is incredibly difficult to pass up Josh Downs ($10,000) even at his high salary. Downs leads all receivers on the slate in both target share (38.4%) and yards share (40.3%) for North Carolina, and there comes the added bonus of stacking him with Sam Howell ($11,200) as a persistent dual threat. Florida State, despite far from a daunting passing schedule, is 97th in total passing defense, and despite the fact UNC is a 17.5-point favorite, the market share for Downs gives reasonable assurance he would be involved in much of the pre-blowout damage.

Another reason that KJ Jefferson is interesting is the clear stacking partner that Treylon Burks ($7,900) makes with him. Last week against Georgia was brutal as expected, but Burks still saw 6 of the team's 15 total targets. Burks still has a tremendous 37.1% target share and 39.5% yardage share overall. Especially considering his matchup with Ole Miss, Burks' salary dropped way too far, as he posted 167 yards receiving two weeks ago against Texas A&M's much stronger defense. Overall, he is the top value at receiver on the main slate.

Brennan Armstrong ($11,000) has been a dual-threat delight all season, but it appears there is finally a stacking partner for him. Billy Kemp IV ($7,700) has now seen at least 10 targets and an 18.0% target share in three straight games after seeing just 12 targets in each of the first two games of Virginia's season. This is a slight opportunity to buy that workload low in a good offense, as Kemp IV hasn't scored in either of the past two games. Virginia is sure to put up points (again) this week against Louisville; their game has a 69.5-point total, but the Cardinals are favored by 2.5 points.

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