Pick upsets early. Pick conservatively late.

Win your pool.

That's how we've been taught to fill out our NCAA Tournament brackets. It's the right approach, if we're being honest. There's less randomness than most think within the NCAA Tournament, as the upsets that do occur tend to happen early on in the big dance. And then the powerhouses do powerhouse things and win.

But that's not fun. Picking only 1 and 2 seeds in your Final Four is the opposite of fun.

You want upsets. You want Cinderella stories. You want to win your office pool by picking the random double-digit seeded team that makes it to the Sweet 16.

So which low-seeded teams do our numbers dig? Let's take a look.

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Butler, who rank 28th in the country with a 10.97 rating. Annoyingly, though, the selection committee did a pretty good job seeding teams based on performance, so there aren't many lower-seeded teams that rank incredibly high within nERD. For instance, since the turn of the century, the average 10 seed has had a nERD of 10.49, meaning Butler's barely above the norm. But they're far above the norm in this tournament.

With all of this being said, Butler's one of just four teams to beat top-seeded Villanova, and they've now won at least one game in each of the past three NCAA Tournaments. If they get by Arkansas (who, by the way, have a lower nERD rating than Butler), Butler will have a rematch against Purdue, our top-ranked 2 seed. That may not bode well, as Butler lost to Purdue by 15 earlier in the season.

Nevertheless, the Bulldogs are still a strong squad.

Arizona State Sun Devils (11 Seed)

Arizona State isn't entering the tournament on a high note. They lost to Colorado in the Pac-12 Tournament, and they've now dropped five of their last six games. So why are they a potential Cinderella team? Because of their ceiling.

The Sun Devils were the third-ranked team in the country around Christmas time. They've obviously dropped since conference play started, but they have wins against both Kansas and Xavier, two 1 seeds in this year's dance. Arizona State is capable of scoring points, and they were efficient on that side of the ball this year, ranking 19th in adjusted offensive rating. The problem is, they'll have to not only win a play-in game, but they'll have to get by an above-average 6 seed in Texas Christian in the Round of 64 and then potentially Michigan State if they're going to make a run to the Sweet 16.

The path is going to be tough, but with Cinderella teams, you want a high ceiling. And that's what Arizona State offers, as long as they can get some of their early-season magic back.

Seton Hall Pirates (8 Seed)

As an 8 seed, Seton Hall's going to have to get by 1-seeded Kansas in order to make any sort of run in the tournament. And, to be honest, they're not even the best 8 seed in this year's dance according to our numbers -- that honor belongs to Creighton. So why not have Creighton listed here? Well, their nERD is comparable, but their path is more difficult, as Virginia is a bigger threat than Kansas, per nERD.

Seton Hall also has 6'9'' Angel Delgado, who averages a double-double and almost 12 rebounds per game. They should have an advantage on the boards against North Carolina State in the Round of 64, and then there's the possibility of Kansas in the next round, a team ranking 174th in the country in rebounding rate. Seton Hall's a very interesting team to watch this year.

Florida State Seminoles (9 Seed)

Florida State came close to beating Virginia back in February, losing by just four. And they've got a win over North Carolina on their resume as well. Their 10.45 nERD prior to Sunday's games is barely above the historical average for a 9 seed, but again, this year's tournament doesn't have obvious underseeded teams, like last year's Wichita State squad. Their path to the Sweet 16 goes through an 8-seeded Missouri team that ranks lower in nERD, and then one of the worst 1 seeds our database has ever seen. That's enough reason to think they're capable of going on a small run in the tournament.

Montana Grizzlies (14 Seed)

The most fun lower-seeded team to pull for as a Cinderella this year is probably Montana, owners of a 6.46 nERD, nearly two points higher than what we typically see from a 14 seed. They have no noteworthy wins on their resume, but the Grizzlies have the 30th-best defensive rating in the country before adjusting for strength of opponent. They also have one of the best steals per possession rates among tournament teams, and they rank 12th among tourney teams in overall rebounding rate.

They'll get Michigan in their first matchup which clearly won't be a cakewalk, but the Wolverines are the worst 3 seed according to our numbers. If they can get by them, they'll get a Round of 32 game against two non-powerhouse programs in either Houston or San Diego State. Getting that far isn't probable, but it's possible for Montana.