MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 9/22/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
SFJose
Urena
11.55.8452.8%36.8%23.4%13.7%7.3%
COLJohn
Brebbia
11.55.6649.8%33.9%21.1%12.0%6.3%
NYYMichael
Wacha
8.04.3326.8%14.8%7.3%3.3%1.3%
TEXMichael
Lorenzen
8.04.3226.7%14.7%7.3%3.2%1.3%
SDJack
Flaherty
8.04.2826.0%14.2%7.0%3.1%1.3%
MINJon
Heasley
8.04.1523.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
SEAAdrian
Martinez
7.04.1423.7%12.6%6.0%2.6%1.0%
MILHunter
Greene
7.54.0722.6%11.8%5.5%2.4%0.9%
LADZac
Gallen
7.04.0622.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
ATLRanger
Suarez
7.54.0322.0%11.4%5.3%2.2%0.9%
HOUKyle
Bradish
7.04.0021.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
TORJ.T.
Chargois
7.53.9120.1%10.2%4.6%1.9%0.7%
KCJosh
Winder
8.03.8519.2%9.6%4.3%1.7%0.6%
CLEJohnny
Cueto
7.03.7217.3%8.4%3.6%1.4%0.5%
STLJoe
Musgrove
8.03.7217.3%8.4%3.6%1.4%0.5%
LAAMartin
Perez
8.03.6816.7%8.0%3.4%1.3%0.5%
BOSJameson
Taillon
8.03.6716.6%7.9%3.4%1.3%0.5%
TBJose
Berrios
7.53.5915.5%7.2%3.0%1.1%0.4%
PITHayden
Wesneski
7.03.5514.9%6.9%2.9%1.1%0.4%
PHIMax
Fried
7.53.4713.8%6.3%2.6%0.9%0.3%
CHCMitch
Keller
7.03.4513.6%6.2%2.5%0.9%0.3%
CINBrandon
Woodruff
7.53.4313.3%6.0%2.4%0.9%0.3%
CHWShane
Bieber
7.03.2811.5%5.0%1.9%0.7%0.2%
BALJustin
Verlander
7.03.008.4%3.4%1.2%0.4%0.1%
ARIJulio
Urias
7.02.947.8%3.1%1.1%0.3%0.1%
OAKGeorge
Kirby
7.02.867.0%2.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Brandon
Woodruff
CIN7.895.2%89.0%79.2%66.4%52.2%38.2%26.1%
Shane
Bieber
CHW6.588.8%77.6%63.1%47.3%32.7%20.8%12.3%
Hunter
Greene
MIL6.588.8%77.6%63.1%47.3%32.7%20.8%12.3%
Justin
Verlander
BAL6.286.7%74.3%58.9%42.9%28.7%17.6%10.0%
Max
Fried
PHI5.984.3%70.7%54.5%38.4%24.8%14.7%8.0%
Joe
Musgrove
STL5.983.7%69.7%53.3%37.3%23.8%14.0%7.5%
Ranger
Suarez
ATL5.882.8%68.4%51.8%35.8%22.6%13.1%7.0%
Julio
Urias
ARI5.680.6%65.3%48.3%32.5%19.9%11.2%5.7%
Martin
Perez
LAA5.377.8%61.5%44.2%28.7%17.0%9.2%4.5%
Hayden
Wesneski
PIT5.275.9%59.1%41.6%26.5%15.3%8.0%3.9%
George
Kirby
OAK5.073.8%56.3%38.8%24.1%13.5%6.9%3.3%
Zac
Gallen
LAD5.073.6%56.1%38.6%23.9%13.4%6.9%3.2%
Michael
Wacha
NYY4.971.3%53.3%35.8%21.6%11.8%5.9%2.7%
Jose
Berrios
TB4.971.3%53.3%35.8%21.6%11.8%5.9%2.7%
Jameson
Taillon
BOS4.870.9%52.7%35.2%21.2%11.5%5.7%2.6%
Kyle
Bradish
HOU4.566.1%47.2%30.0%17.2%8.8%4.1%1.8%
Johnny
Cueto
CLE4.261.2%41.8%25.3%13.7%6.7%2.9%1.2%
Mitch
Keller
CHC4.159.3%39.8%23.7%12.6%6.0%2.6%1.0%
Michael
Lorenzen
TEX4.056.1%36.5%21.0%10.8%4.9%2.0%0.8%
Jose
Urena
SF3.954.7%35.2%19.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
Adrian
Martinez
SEA3.852.4%33.0%18.3%9.0%4.0%1.6%0.6%
Jon
Heasley
MIN3.851.6%32.2%17.7%8.6%3.8%1.5%0.5%
Ryan
Yarbrough
TOR3.751.0%31.7%17.3%8.4%3.6%1.4%0.5%
Jack
Flaherty
SD3.648.9%29.7%15.9%7.5%3.2%1.2%0.4%
Josh
Winder
KC3.342.4%24.1%12.0%5.2%2.0%0.7%0.2%
John
Brebbia
COL1.01.9%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
J.T.
Chargois
TOR0.91.6%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Joc
Pederson
SFYes109Jose
Urena
29.2%+245
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNo111Hunter
Greene
26.3%+280
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes110Kyle
Bradish
25.7%+290
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes109Michael
Wacha
25.5%+290
David
Villar
SFNo108Jose
Urena
25.5%+295
Willy
Adames
MILNo111Hunter
Greene
25.5%+295
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo96Joe
Musgrove
24.9%+300
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORYes94Ryan
Yarbrough
23.9%+320
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo103Michael
Wacha
23.8%+320
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes111Johnny
Cueto
23.4%+330
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo103Jameson
Taillon
23.3%+330
Mookie
Betts
LADNo107Zac
Gallen
22.9%+335
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes95Hayden
Wesneski
22.9%+335
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORYes94Ryan
Yarbrough
22.4%+345
Emmanuel
Rivera
ARIYes107Julio
Urias
22.4%+345
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYNo103Michael
Wacha
22.3%+350
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo112Kyle
Bradish
22.1%+355
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes92Adrian
Martinez
21.9%+355
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes110Kyle
Bradish
21.6%+365
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes113Hunter
Greene
21.4%+365
Jake
Fraley
CINYes113Brandon
Woodruff
21.4%+365
Anthony
Santander
BALYes110Justin
Verlander
21.0%+375
LaMonte
Wade
Jr
SFYes109Jose
Urena
20.9%+380
Trea
Turner
LADNo107Zac
Gallen
20.8%+380
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo96Joe
Musgrove
20.7%+380
Salvador
Perez
KCNo92Josh
Winder
20.6%+385
Rhys
Hoskins
PHIYes110Max
Fried
20.4%+390
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes101Michael
Lorenzen
20.3%+395
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes101Michael
Lorenzen
20.3%+395
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFYes109Jose
Urena
20.3%+395
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo92Mitch
Keller
20.1%+395
Josh
Jung
TEXNo95Michael
Lorenzen
20.1%+400
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo112Kyle
Bradish
19.7%+405
William
Contreras
ATLYes110Ranger
Suarez
19.2%+420
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo112Kyle
Bradish
19.1%+425
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo92Josh
Winder
19.1%+425
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo111Hunter
Greene
19.0%+425
Mike
Trout
LAAYes95Martin
Perez
18.9%+430
Isaac
Paredes
TBNo94Jose
Berrios
18.9%+430
Rodolfo
Castro
PITYes95Hayden
Wesneski
18.8%+430
Christian
Walker
ARIYes107Julio
Urias
18.8%+435
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes111Shane
Bieber
18.7%+435
Joey
Bart
SFNo108Jose
Urena
18.6%+440
Gunnar
Henderson
BALYes110Justin
Verlander
18.5%+440
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo95Michael
Lorenzen
18.5%+440
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes109Jameson
Taillon
18.4%+445
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo94Adrian
Martinez
18.3%+445
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes95Hayden
Wesneski
18.3%+445
Jack
Suwinski
PITYes95Hayden
Wesneski
18.3%+445
Albert
Pujols
STLNo96Joe
Musgrove
18.1%+455
Corey
Seager
TEXYes101Michael
Lorenzen
18.0%+455
Daulton
Varsho
ARINo102Julio
Urias
17.8%+460
Austin
Riley
ATLYes110Ranger
Suarez
17.8%+460
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo94George
Kirby
17.8%+460
Luis
Urias
MILNo111Hunter
Greene
17.7%+465
TJ
Friedl
CINYes113Brandon
Woodruff
17.6%+470
Manny
Machado
SDNo96Jack
Flaherty
17.5%+470
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo103Michael
Wacha
17.3%+480
Matt
Olson
ATLNo106Ranger
Suarez
17.3%+480
Seth
Brown
OAKYes92George
Kirby
17.3%+480
Kyle
Farmer
CINNo111Brandon
Woodruff
17.0%+485
Aristides
Aquino
CINNo111Brandon
Woodruff
17.0%+485
Tyrone
Taylor
MILNo111Hunter
Greene
17.0%+485
Danny
Jansen
TORYes94Ryan
Yarbrough
17.0%+490
Christian
Yelich
MILYes113Hunter
Greene
16.9%+490
Victor
Caratini
MILYes113Hunter
Greene
16.9%+490
Wilmer
Flores
SFNo108Jose
Urena
16.7%+500
Chas
McCormick
HOUNo112Kyle
Bradish
16.5%+505
Brandon
Crawford
SFYes109Jose
Urena
16.4%+510
J.T.
Realmuto
PHIYes110Max
Fried
16.4%+510
Joey
Gallo
LADYes102Zac
Gallen
16.2%+515
Ty
France
SEANo94Adrian
Martinez
16.1%+520
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo94Jose
Berrios
16.1%+520
Zack
Collins
PITYes95Hayden
Wesneski
15.9%+530
Mike
Toglia
COLYes109John
Brebbia
15.7%+535
Stuart
Fairchild
CINNo111Brandon
Woodruff
15.6%+540
Bryce
Harper
PHINo106Max
Fried
15.6%+540
Michael
Harris
II
ATLNo106Ranger
Suarez
15.6%+540
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes102Zac
Gallen
15.6%+545
Tommy
Pham
BOSNo103Jameson
Taillon
15.4%+550
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo103Michael
Wacha
15.4%+550
Chris
Taylor
LADNo107Zac
Gallen
15.2%+560
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes110Justin
Verlander
15.1%+560
George
Springer
TORYes94Ryan
Yarbrough
15.1%+565
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLENo106Johnny
Cueto
15.1%+565
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo95Michael
Lorenzen
15.0%+565
Jake
Cave
MINYes92Jon
Heasley
14.9%+570
Dermis
Garcia
OAKNo94George
Kirby
14.9%+570
Max
Muncy
LADYes102Zac
Gallen
14.9%+570
Juan
Soto
SDYes95Jack
Flaherty
14.7%+580
Jose
Miranda
MINNo92Jon
Heasley
14.6%+585
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes107Julio
Urias
14.6%+585
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes111Johnny
Cueto
14.5%+590
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes111Johnny
Cueto
14.5%+590
Kyle
Schwarber
PHINo106Max
Fried
14.4%+595
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo112Justin
Verlander
14.3%+600
Ronald
Acuna
ATLYes110Ranger
Suarez
14.1%+610
Lars
Nootbaar
STLYes95Joe
Musgrove
14.0%+615
Jordan
Luplow
ARIYes107Julio
Urias
13.8%+625
Justin
Turner
LADNo107Zac
Gallen
13.8%+625
Matt
Chapman
TORYes94Ryan
Yarbrough
13.7%+625
Nick
Gordon
MINYes92Jon
Heasley
13.7%+630
Austin
Hays
BALNo112Justin
Verlander
13.6%+640
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYes109John
Brebbia
13.5%+640
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes102Zac
Gallen
13.5%+640
Jonathan
India
CINNo111Brandon
Woodruff
13.5%+645
Carlos
Correa
MINNo92Jon
Heasley
13.4%+645
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo92Mitch
Keller
13.4%+645
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes95Jack
Flaherty
13.4%+650
Josh
Bell
SDYes95Jack
Flaherty
13.4%+650
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLYes110Ranger
Suarez
13.3%+650
Dansby
Swanson
ATLYes110Ranger
Suarez
13.3%+650
Brandon
Drury
SDNo96Jack
Flaherty
13.2%+655
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes95Martin
Perez
13.2%+660
Elehuris
Montero
COLNo108John
Brebbia
13.1%+660
Bo
Bichette
TORYes94Ryan
Yarbrough
13.1%+665
Carson
Kelly
ARIYes107Julio
Urias
13.0%+670
Abraham
Toro
SEAYes92Adrian
Martinez
13.0%+670
Christian
Bethancourt
TBNo94Jose
Berrios
13.0%+670
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo106Shane
Bieber
12.9%+675
Gio
Urshela
MINNo92Jon
Heasley
12.8%+685
P.J.
Higgins
CHCNo92Mitch
Keller
12.8%+685
Oswaldo
Cabrera
NYYYes109Michael
Wacha
12.7%+685
Michael
Brosseau
MILNo111Hunter
Greene
12.7%+690
Alejandro
Kirk
TORYes94Ryan
Yarbrough
12.4%+710
Will
Smith
LADNo107Zac
Gallen
12.3%+715
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes111Shane
Bieber
12.2%+725
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes109John
Brebbia
12.0%+735
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes92Adrian
Martinez
11.7%+755
Matt
Wallner
MINYes92Jon
Heasley
11.7%+755
Franmil
Reyes
CHCNo92Mitch
Keller
11.5%+775
Tommy
Edman
STLYes95Joe
Musgrove
11.3%+785
Rougned
Odor
BALYes110Justin
Verlander
11.2%+790
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo112Justin
Verlander
11.2%+795
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes92Adrian
Martinez
11.0%+810
MJ
Melendez
KCYes92Josh
Winder
11.0%+810
Jose
Siri
TBNo94Jose
Berrios
11.0%+810
Randal
Grichuk
COLNo108John
Brebbia
10.8%+820
Nelson
Velazquez
CHCNo92Mitch
Keller
10.8%+825
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes95Joe
Musgrove
10.6%+840
Trey
Mancini
HOUNo112Kyle
Bradish
10.4%+865
Ramon
Urias
BALNo112Justin
Verlander
10.4%+865
Luis
Arraez
MINYes92Jon
Heasley
10.3%+870
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCYes92Josh
Winder
10.3%+870
Dalton
Guthrie
PHIYes110Max
Fried
10.0%+905
Trent
Grisham
SDYes95Jack
Flaherty
9.9%+910
Zach
McKinstry
CHCYes95Mitch
Keller
9.9%+910
Kole
Calhoun
TEXYes101Michael
Lorenzen
9.7%+935
Steven
Kwan
CLEYes111Johnny
Cueto
9.7%+935
Christian
Arroyo
BOSNo103Jameson
Taillon
9.6%+940
Jake
McCarthy
ARINo102Julio
Urias
9.6%+940
David
Peralta
TBYes92Jose
Berrios
9.6%+940
Sam
Haggerty
SEAYes92Adrian
Martinez
9.6%+940
Triston
Casas
BOSYes109Jameson
Taillon
9.5%+955
Alan
Trejo
COLNo108John
Brebbia
9.2%+985
Jake
Cronenworth
SDYes95Jack
Flaherty
9.1%+995
Elvis
Andrus
CHWNo106Shane
Bieber
9.1%+1000
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo106Shane
Bieber
9.1%+1000
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo106Shane
Bieber
9.1%+1000
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo106Shane
Bieber
9.1%+1000
Yandy
Diaz
TBNo94Jose
Berrios
8.9%+1025
Connor
Wong
BOSNo103Jameson
Taillon
8.8%+1030
Stone
Garrett
ARIYes107Julio
Urias
8.8%+1030
Ian
Happ
CHCYes95Mitch
Keller
8.4%+1090
Yadier
Molina
STLNo96Joe
Musgrove
8.3%+1105
Ha-Seong
Kim
SDNo96Jack
Flaherty
8.3%+1105
Alec
Bohm
PHIYes110Max
Fried
8.1%+1130
Harold
Ramirez
TBNo94Jose
Berrios
8.1%+1130
Yu
Chang
BOSNo103Jameson
Taillon
8.0%+1145
Edward
Olivares
KCNo92Josh
Winder
8.0%+1155
Yasmani
Grandal
CHWYes111Shane
Bieber
7.9%+1165
Christian
Vazquez
HOUNo112Kyle
Bradish
7.8%+1185

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