3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Thursday 9/22/22
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.
Therefore, crushing your value plays -- whether it be a pitcher unexpectedly piling up strikeouts or a low-salaried batter racking up points -- can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament.
Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?
Hunter Greene, P, Reds ($8,200)
Hunter Greene always comes with risk, but I'm intrigued by his strikeout upside tonight.
Greene is giving up a 49.8% fly-ball rate and 1.90 homers per nine. That's where the risk comes in. However, he also owns a 29.8% strikeout rate and 13.9% swinging-strike rate, so there's plenty of upside, too.
He's up against the Milwaukee Brewers, and Milwaukee has the ninth-highest strikeout rate (24.4%) over the last 30 days. We project Greene for 6.5 punchouts, tied for the second-most on the slate.
We have Greene scoring 30.0 FanDuel points and rate him as the second-best point-per-dollar arm of the night.
Zach McKinstry, 2B/3B, Cubs ($2,200)
Zach McKinstry has been hitting leadoff against righties, and he should be there today against Mitch Keller.
Keller hasn't been good overall, and he struggles with left-handed hitters. In the split this year, he's giving up a .337 wOBA with a meager 17.2% strikeout rate.
McKinstry has a 43.0% fly-ball rate since coming to the Chicago Cubs, and our model projects him to score 11.6 FanDuel points, rating him as the third-best point-per-dollar hitter. He's a great way to fill a weak second-base position.
Jeremy Pena, SS, Astros ($2,700)
The Houston Astros are a solid stacking option on a night when we don't have many standout stacks.
Houston holds a 4.00 implied total for their date with Kyle Bradish. A righty, Bradish has displayed reverse splits this season, getting hammered in righty-righty matchups to the tune of a .377 wOBA, 1.81 homers per nine and 40.7% fly-ball rate.
Jeremy Pena is projected to hit atop the order with Jose Altuve expected to sit out. That's a big boost to Pena's outlook.
We have Pena scoring 14.1 FanDuel points, and he ranks as the fourth-best point-per-dollar bat.
