Like an eight-year-old talking to his parents after fighting with his brother, yards per carry averages don't always tell the entire story.
Take Felix Jones' 2008 campaign for example. That year, Jones, a rookie, rushed for 266 yards on 30 attempts. His 8.87 rushing yards per attempt was good for the most ever by a running back with at least 30 touches, and while he was fine as a runner, two-thirds of those rushes went for fewer than his rushing average. Because -- and yes, I know I'm not talking to people here who don't understand basic math -- a couple of big runs were able to skew his average.
To a lesser extent, you could say the same about Andre Ellington in 2013. His efficiency numbers were sensational, averaging 5.5 yards per carry on 118 carries. And that's really what a lot of fantasy owners are intrigued about, as his 2014 injured-filled campaign saw that average drop to just 3.3 yards per touch.
But a deeper dive into his numbers shows that his rookie season may not be as sensational as it appears. And that's not good news for his 2015 outlook.
An Overrated Rookie Campaign?
Don't twist my words -- Ellington was good as a rookie in the NFL. It's just that his efficiency may be a little overblown in terms of what he may be able to do moving forward for the Cardinals and for fantasy football owners.
According to our David Johnson guy who the Cardinals selected in the third round of the NFL Draft. As I mentioned in an article yesterday, Johnson could be considered just a larger version of Ellington, and the Cardinals' willingness to spend reasonable equity (in today's NFL) on the position could show you where their head is at.
Overall, it's not as though Ellington can't live up to his draft cost. In fact, if he's used heavily through the air, he could be fine in PPR leagues. It's just that, if you're spending a top-four round pick on him, you may want a little more reasonable upside than what you're getting.
As it stands, he's the 25th best running back in fantasy football according to our algorithm.