NFL
Why Justin Forsett Is a Value Pick in Fantasy Football This Year
Entering his age-30 season, Justin Forsett offers major fantasy value in the late-second round of fantasy drafts.

Running backs are by far the toughest position to draft with any consistency in fantasy football every single year. It's not close.

In recent seasons, runners drafted as a top-12 back overall typically finish as a "RB1" (top-12) just 50% of the time, My Fantasy League ADP and is the 12th back taken on average according to Fantasy Football Calculator. Coming off a late breakout season at age-29 and averaging the ninth-best per-game PPR output last year (15.3 points), Forsett may have the safest floor of any running back who is being drafted in between 20 and 35 overall on average.

Age-29 Breakout in 2014

In retrospect, running backs rarely (if ever) breakout late in their career like Justin Forsett did. After bouncing around on a total of five different teams in eight years, Forsett has made a home in Baltimore. Let's go back and quickly re-visit what his 2014 season looked like.

Here at numberFire, we use an advanced statistic called one of 27 running backs since 1958 to average more than 5.3 yards per carry while seeing at least 230 attempts on a season. That's unbelievable company.

On the ground, Forsett finally got the chance to prove his ability last year -- and he was pretty dominant. Forsett and the only two backs to have seven-plus runs of 30 yards or more last season (Foster had eight and Forsett had seven).

Forsett's major downfall last year, as seen above, was in the passing game. He caught 44 balls last year which was tied for the ninth-most among running backs last year -- but he failed to hit pay-dirt through the air once. However, this was basically all opportunity-based. Forsett only saw five red zone targets last year, finishing sixth on his own team for targets inside of the 20-yard line.

But, as we're about to find out below -- Justin Forsett's receiving and PPR floor is about to change drastically with more volume.

Marc Trestman's Effect on Fantasy Backs

Looking at the new Baltimore offensive coordinator, 4for4's T.J. Hernandez outlined Marc Trestman's historical effect on offenses.

Trestman has been either a head coach or an offensive coordinator in the NFL for a total of 10 seasons. His starting running backs have averaged at least 15.1 touches and 3.1 receptions per game in nine of 10 seasons when he's calling plays.

Two things here. First, a coach's impact on players is often overstated and deals with small samples for the most part -- but it's fairly safe to say Trestman identifies one back in his offense and rides him primarily. It's a major boon to Forsett's fantasy value that the Ravens spent only fourth-round (125 overall) draft capital on USC product have never finished worse than 16th in pass attempts. Plus, Trestman's offensive units have finish top-10 in pass attempts in six of 10 seasons he's had play-calling duties.

All of this leads up to one major thing: Forsett may see a slight dip in rush attempts per-game, but his PPR floor is heavily elevated just due to the volume influx quarterback Joe Flacco and company will likely enjoy this year. Last year, Baltimore threw 555 times which was good enough for 17th most in the entire league and Forsett averaged "only" 2.8 receptions per game.

For what it's worth, numberFire's early projections have Forsett pegged for 54.8 receptions (3.4 catches per-game) on the season -- which may just be Forsett's floor this year.

Fantasy Verdict

There's some well-placed skepticism surrounding the Ravens offense this year. There is no doubt about that. Rookie Breshad Perriman will seemingly have a lot on his plate in year one as Baltimore's "X" receiver while Steve Smith Sr. will look to turn back the clocks one more time in his age-36 season.

Of course I would also be remiss without mentioning Justin Forsett is set to turn 30 in mid-October this season. But, unlike current and soon-to-be 30-year-old backs -- Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte -- Forsett doesn't cost a first round pick in PPR-leagues. Instead, Forsett's average draft position has been hovering near the mid-to-late second round.

Also helping Forsett's case: he has just 741 career touches on his career odometer. Adrian Peterson owns 2,279 career touches and Matt Forte has a lofty 2,260 touch-mark tread on his tires.

Perhaps Forsett is being drafted a full round and a half later than both Peterson and Forte on name value alone or on age and offense-related concerns. Maybe it's all three factors. But as of right now in early-July, Justin Forsett is a pretty stark value in fantasy football leagues.

Related News

Justin Forsett Sticks With Baltimore: Can We Expect Him to Repeat His 2014 Success?

Brandon Gdula  --  Jul 6th, 2015

3 Things Justin Forsett Has Taught Us in 2014

JJ Zachariason  --  Jul 6th, 2015

An Introduction to FanDuel Research

Jim Sannes  --  Jul 6th, 2015