NFL
2015 Offense-Only NFL Mock Draft: Does Jameis Winston Deserve the Top Spot?
What if the NFL Draft was an offense-only one? Two numberFire writers, Michael Luchies and Cory Rindone, take a look at what it could look like.

One of the biggest and most-anticipated NFL weekends of the year is quickly approaching.

It’s amazing to think of all the hype and coverage around an event that doesn’t even include any actual football, isn't it?

The 2015 NFL Draft is heading to Chicago, and once again, there are no shortage of predictions, speculations, and mock drafts around the event. We won’t see this much hype over less game action until fantasy football drafts start to take over our lives in a few months.

To further play into our love for mock drafts and fantasy football, we decided to put together an offense-only NFL mock draft. While taking the defense out of the mock draft makes it even more unrealistic, it gives us a chance to look at the offensive needs of each team and what early-round draft prospects may be a fit to fill those needs.

Your GMs: Winston and Mariota by the numbers, they provide a graph showing where both quarterbacks stack up to current pros based on their ability to make big-time throws versus risky throws. Mariota ranks significantly higher than Winston and most of the quarterbacks in the NFL.

Even if Jameis Winston is the better overall prospect -- which you can certainly make a case for -- he would not be my pick. As GM in this scenario, I’m simply not comfortable with having Jameis Winston lead my team and be the face of my franchise. I hope he proves me wrong, but there’s too much on the line with the number-one overall pick, and his off-the-field troubles could ruin any potential on-the-field results.

2. Tennessee Titans Select QB Jameis Winston (Florida St.)

Cory Rindone: Well, one man’s trash is another man’s treasure. The Titans are basically at the mercy of the Buccaneers, and are fine taking whichever quarterback Tampa decides to leave on the board. Some may like what they see out of incumbent reported just a week before the NFL draft, may hurt his draft position slightly, but he remains one of the most talented and physical lineman in the draft.

With the offensive weapons that the Cincinnati Bengals have, there’s no reason they should be in the middle of the pack in terms of production. Putting Clemmings on the Bengals’ line will help protect quarterback Andy Dalton and give running backs Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard enough space to keep the chains moving. Clemings is a great fit for Cincinnati.

22. Pittsburgh Steelers Select WR/TE Devin Funchess (Michigan)

Cory Rindone: While the Steelers will almost certainly be taking players on the defensive side of the ball for the majority of their real draft, in an offense-only draft, they'll look to add another dimension to an already fantastic group. Heath Miller will turn 33 during the season, and while he’s still very solid (55.74 Reception NEP, 12th among tight ends), he isn’t the weapon he once was in the passing game.

Funchess is a bit of a tweener, as he’s not strong enough to be a true tight end, but may not be fast and fluid enough to be a full-time wide receiver. He did use his Pro Day to improve greatly on his NFL Combine 40 time of 4.70, running a 4.47 and 4.53 to try to dispel the speed concerns I listed above. While he may not lack a true position, he definitely has the skills to play in the league, and could be a matchup nightmare right out of the gate.

23. Detroit Lions Select RB Tevin Coleman (Indiana)

Michael Luchies: This was a no-brainer for my beloved Detroit Lions. Coleman is a home run hitter and proved he can withstand a grueling season on a bad team. Coleman gained over 2,000 yards in 2014 with an average of 7.5 YPC, which was the same as fellow Big Ten back Melvin Gordon. Gordon had a better offense and offensive line. Comparisons to Darren McFadden are scary due to his injury problems and inability to live up to lofty expectations in Oakland. The Lions will still need to beef up their offensive line in order to give Coleman room to run, but they’ve already met with the running back twice in the offseason and he would be a perfect complement to current top back Joique Bell.

24. Arizona Cardinals Select RB David Johnson (Northern Iowa)

Cory Rindone: This is one of the more clear-cut needs in the entire draft, as the Cardinals’ rumored interest in trading for Adrian Peterson shows they are really looking for a true workhorse back to complement Andre Ellington. Arizona ranked 26th in the NFL last year with an Adjusted Rushing NEP per play average of -0.05, so they will be looking to take a foundation back to play on early downs at some point this weekend.

With most of the bigger name running backs off the board, David Johnson is a little bit of a sleeper in this year’s crop. He didn’t get much national recognition at Northern Iowa, but he was All-Conference in both his junior and senior years, and became the first player in school history with three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, finishing his career with 64 total touchdowns. He is a big back at 6’1” 224 pounds, but moves well for his size and is a very good receiver out of the backfield, making for a perfect complement to Ellington.

25. Carolina Panthers Select OT Jake Fisher (Oregon)

Michael Luchies: Simple logic here. Cam Newton was sacked over 40 times in 2014. Taking Fisher to sure up their offensive line is the best pick here, and Fisher, a third-team All-American, is polished and can start week one.

26. Baltimore Ravens Select WR Tyler Lockett (Kansas State)

Cory Rindone: Another obvious need, the Ravens lack of talent at the wide receiver position is a bit alarming. Just this weekend, Joe Flacco was quoted as saying that the Ravens lack “that one guy who can stretch the field” since Torrey Smith fled for San Francisco earlier in the offseason. Steve Smith (84.65 Reception NEP, 22nd among wide receivers) is an ageless wonder, but the remaining group of Kamar Aiken (26.06, 95th), Marlon Brown (21.83, 101st), and Michael Campanaro (13.52, 118th) is nothing to write home about and is severely lacking in depth and experience.

Similar to the aforementioned Steve Smith, Lockett is a smaller receiver but plays like the biggest man on the field. A willing blocker and team leader, he was a Biletnikoff Award semifinalist and second-team All-American in 2014 after posting 106 receptions for 1,515 yards and 11 touchdowns. He also adds special teams value as a return man to a team that lost Jacoby Jones, as he finished his college career with six return touchdowns.

27. Dallas Cowboys Select RB Jay Ajayi (Boise State)

Michael Luchies: There’s no surprise here with the position. The Cowboys need a running back to take advantage of their dominant offensive line. Jay Ajayi was a combine superstar and is similar to former Cowboys’ running back DeMarco Murray. Ajayi ranked in the top five among all running backs in the vertical jump, broad jump, 20-yard shuttle and 60-yard shuttle at the combine. His performance on the field was just as impressive.

Ajayi is the first running back in FBS history to rush for over 1,800 yards and have 500 yards receiving in a single season. It’s hard to imagine any running back getting off to a bad start in Dallas. Ajayi would be a fantastic pick for the Cowboys.

28. Denver Broncos Select C/G/T Cameron Erving (Florida State)

Cory Rindone: While many of these selections (especially as we get later and later into the mock) don’t have much of a chance of happening in real life given our format, this is a marriage that seems to be very popular among draftniks. The Broncos have a big hole on their offensive line after losing Orlando Franklin to the division rival Chargers, and could use one (if not two) new lineman in the early rounds of this year’s draft to give Peyton Manning the most protection possible.

Erving to Denver is such a widespread pick because of his versatility –- at 6’5” 313 pounds, he has the build of a blindside protector and was a first team All-ACC selection in 2013 at left tackle. He then seamlessly transitioned to center late in 2014 and was again outstanding, with most scouts agreeing that should be his NFL position. With such limited experience at the pivot, he should continue to improve as his familiarity with the position increases, and could become a Pro Bowler before we know it.

29. Indianapolis Colts Select RB Ameer Abdullah (Nebraska)

Michael Luchies: Nebraska running back Ameer Abdullah is a steal here and a great pickup for the Colts. Indianapolis was tied for 28th in Rushing NEP per play adjusted for schedule (-.07) a season ago, and Abdullah is a workhorse with the ability to make plays as a receiver and a kick returner. He may not have had the college career of Melvin Gordon or have the flash of Todd Gurley, but he could become the best player out of the bunch if used correctly.

30. Green Bay Packers Select TE Clive Walford (Miami)

Cory Rindone: The Packers are still searching for Jermichael Finley's replacement, and they may have found it here. Andrew Quarless (32.06 Reception NEP, 21st among tight ends) and Richard Rodgers (18.43, 40th) currently top the depth chart, but an all-around tight end to go along with Green Bay’s already-great wide receiving corps could do the unthinkable and take this offense to new heights. The rich get richer.

What makes Walford such an intriguing prospect is his blocking ability, along with a very solid receiving skill set. While most tight ends these days excel at either one or the other, this Dwayne Allen clone has the hands to make tough catches with legit run-after-catch ability, while also not being afraid to stick his nose in there and block in the run game.

31. New Orleans Saints Select WR Rashad Greene (Florida State)

Michael Luchies: This second-team All-American wide receiver is extremely talented -- Greene can play both in the slot and on the outside, but at 5’11” and 182 pounds, his size is a concern.

After selecting La’el Collins with their first pick, the Saints now focus on filling the large hole left by the departure of Kenny Stills -- Stills was first in Reception NEP per target in the entire league among receivers with over 40 targets last year. While the Saints still have aging target Marques Colston (31) and young rising star Brandin Cooks, adding another playmaker to the mix is a good idea to help balance the Saints offense and give Drew Brees a chance to regain his spot as one of the league’s best quarterbacks.

New Orleans is a perfect place for Greene to develop and he won’t be pressured to be the top receiver from the start of the season.

32. New England Patriots Select RB T.J. Yeldon (Alabama)

Cory Rindone: The “Mr. Irrelevant” of our one-round offense-only experiment goes to the Super Bowl champion Patriots, and they take a back who was far from irrelevant during his time in the SEC. While on paper it looks like New England fared pretty well in the run game, ranking sixth in the NFL in Adjusted Rushing NEP per play, a huge chunk of their Total Adjusted Rushing NEP was accumulated during Jonas Gray's Week 11 thrashing of the Colts, making it a pretty big outlier. In fact, if you take out that week, the Patriots’ Adjusted Rushing NEP per play falls from .038 to .002, bringing them all the way down to 15th in the NFL.

Of course Gray only received 20 regular season carries after that game, and he’s joined on the depth chart by LeGarrette Blount, Brandon Bolden, and James White –- an overall uninspiring group. The 6’1” 220 pounds, Yeldon isn’t a game-breaking track star or a true power back, but he offers a nice blend of both that makes him a good overall back. He scored double-digit touchdowns in all three years at Alabama, finishing his career with 39 total scores.

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