50-50 in terms of hitting. A team would have to think they have a greater than 50 percent chance of getting a productive Peterson for that type of draft capital. And in Juan’s carry rate study referenced earlier, it showed running backs averaged a nearly 800 percent decrease in NEP the season after hitting the 1,800 carry mark. That’s crazy and we can even safely assume Peterson, even in decline, is not the average back.

That brings us back to what type of production Peterson might have going forward. It could be argued there's the possibility Peterson could be more rested than the typical 1,800-plus carry back after basically resting his body for a year, potentially slowing his decline phase. Regardless the pace of his decline, it's hard to project Peterson as a top back in the league. But, at the same time, what's remaining on Peterson's contract pays him as the top back in the league, by a fairly wide margin.

And over the past few seasons, the top running back in the league has produced at least 20.00 Rushing NEP. Peterson has only done that once, in his stellar 2012 MVP season. If prime AP hasn't even reached those levels, how could a team feel comfortable paying a 30-year-old back to accomplish the feat?

So, in essence, the contract situation would need to be addressed if any trade were to occur. There's still three years and $47.4 million left on his current deal, however none of the remaining money is guaranteed. And Peterson’s $15.4 million cap hit for 2015 is the only one for a running back over $10 million -- Matt Forte is second with a $9.2 million cap hit, and Forte is the only other back over $9 million. Even at top form, Peterson isn’t roughly 67 percent better than Forte, if you want to think of it that way.

A contract for the upside of Peterson’s current ability might need to be more along the lines of LeSean McCoy or DeMarco Murray. Even that’s not a great sign, because both of those contracts were widely viewed as overpays this offseason. Both McCoy and Murray have put together top-10 seasons by Rushing NEP within the past two years, but do not have the length of Peterson's track record. But both backs have yet to hit 30 years of age, which does add some value.

If a new team can work Peterson’s contract down to $8 million a year -- likely by guaranteeing some of the up front payments -- getting the Vikings to eat some money by converting some of this year’s salary to a signing bonus and spreading out the total cost over an extra year on the deal could be closer to the market value of Peterson’s actual production. That’s probably as favorable as a deal could get for an acquiring team, and probably at the minimum Peterson and his agent would find acceptable if done correctly.

What’s most likely to happen is the team that trades for Peterson -- if a trade occurs -- will still view him as one of the top backs in the league. Peterson should be worth no more than a second-round pick though, as well as a contract that pays him about $8 million per year. It’s going to be an overpay -- paying for name value over what Peterson is likely to provide on the field over the next few seasons. The amount of work needed to create equal value in trading for Peterson makes not trading for Peterson look like the much better option.