NFL
Is Zach Ertz Ready to Make the Leap for the Philadelphia Eagles?
With Jeremy Maclin out of town, Ertz is eying a bigger piece of the receiving pie. Can he cash in on it?

I think it's probably safe to say that no team has been more ambitious -- or headscratchingly confusing -- than the Philadelphia Eagles this offseason.

The team parted ways with FantasyData.com.

However, because of the Eagles' uptempo approach, he did play 798 snaps, and four of the tight ends ranked ahead of him posted better Reception NEP scores on fewer snaps: Antonio Gates (771 snaps, 90.09 Reception NEP), Jimmy Graham (784, 73.56), Travis Kelce (737, 72.26), and Coby Fleener (789, 70.20).

Still, Ertz's Reception NEP on a per-snap basis was 0.08, and only three 50-plus target tight ends secured a rate better than 0.09: Rob Gronkowski (0.14), Gates (0.12), and Kelce (0.10).

Per target, Ertz added 0.72 Reception NEP, which ranked eighth in the group. By pretty much any of our efficiency measures, Ertz was a top-10 tight end last year despite his limited snap rate.

Splitting Snaps with Celek

Regardless of how good Ertz has been, there's still a major barrier in front of him: Brent Celek.

Since it's impossible to predict just how much more attention Ertz will get in 2015, we have to assume that Celek will eat into his production to some degree, but does he really warrant it?

Well, not really.

In 2014, Celek posted a Reception NEP of just 21.07, good for a per-target average of just 0.41, which ranked 25th and 22nd, respectively, among the 27 tight ends in with at least 50 targets (Celek had 52). Even with the benefit of few targets, Celek couldn't piece together efficiency.

Worse yet, his Target NEP, which indicates expected points gained or lost on all targets thrown at a player, was -7.87, last in the subset. Now, that could be the result of poor quarterbacking, but Ertz managed to post a Target NEP of 29.98, more than six touchdowns better during the course of the season.

Filling a Void

Jeremy Maclin is leaving some significant volume on the table in Philadelphia. Maclin's 148 targets tied for eighth among all receivers, and his Reception NEP (111.21) ranked ninth among 99 receivers with at least 50 targets.

Jordan Matthews wound up with the 30th-best Reception NEP in the group (78.90), and his Reception NEP per target (0.77) ranked 24th. (Maclin's was 0.78, ranking 22nd.) Meanwhile, Riley Cooper posted a Reception NEP per target of just 0.48, 84th among the 99 receivers with 50 or more targets.

The truth is that the only Eagles to maintain a Reception NEP better than 0.48 were Maclin, Matthews, and Ertz, all of whom were at least 0.72 or better. (In case you're curious, Darren Sproles posted a score of 0.40, and McCoy posted an abysmal 0.04.)

It's likely that Chip Kelly will continue to involve Celek and the rest of his offensive pieces heavily, but it's fairly clear that Ertz -- especially compared to the current talent on the depth chart -- is ready to take the next step in 2015.

Once they figure out what they're doing at quarterback that is.

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