NFL
7 Fantasy Football Sleepers for Week 15

Somehow, it's already Week 15, which means the fantasy football playoffs are here. There's never been a more important time to identify diamonds in the rough for our lineups.

Sleeper is an ambiguous term. For the purpose of this article, we'll define anyone on fewer than half of Yahoo! rosters as a sleeper. Typically, I'll actually aim to feature players on fewer than 40 percent of rosters.

Don't worry, deep-league gamers, this article is intended to help folks in leagues of all shapes and sizes. With that in mind, I'm following my predecessor's lead, including honorable mentions. If the featured players are already rostered in your league, the honorable mentions should provide you with players to consider filling in for an injured starter or a player on a bye -- or for whatever other reason you're diving into the free-agent pool.

While this article is primarily written through a season-long lens, sleepers are certainly viable as daily fantasy punts in certain builds, too. Keep that in mind when you're looking for cash-game savings or trying to gain cheap leverage in tournaments. That's why you'll see every player's FanDuel salary listed next to their Yahoo! roster percentage this year.

Mercifully, there are no more bye weeks for the rest of the season, so we are finally working with the full player pool once again.

Of course, with sleeper recommendations, they can't all be hits, but the results positively matched the process once again in Week 14's article. D.J. Chark was the WR6, Ryan Tannehill was the QB12, Demarcus Robinson had 10 PPR points, and Chigoziem Okonkwo was the TE2.

Let's aim for more strong results in Week 15.

Quarterbacks

Ryan Tannehill (36% | $6,900) - We're at the point in the season where many of our former sleeper candidates no longer meet the threshold for this article. The last man standing is Ryan Tannehill -- because of course he is.

Tannehill has quietly stacked at least 18.5 fantasy points in three of five games since returning from injury. In fact, John Daigle of 4for4 notes that since his return, the Tennessee Titans sneakily rank top 10 in neutral pass rate. The hope is for Treylon Burks to return from his scary concussion, but even without Burks, we saw Tannehill deliver a top-12 performance last week.

This Week 15 game could be a fun one. The total is 47.5, tied for the second-highest on the week, and as just three-point underdogs, Vegas is expecting a tight game.

It's early in the week, and while Joey Bosa (groin) is finally expected to practice this week, that doesn't mean the Los Angeles Chargers will rush their star defender back into the lineup by Sunday. The same can be said for Derwin James (quad) and Bryce Callahan (groin), who both missed last week's contest and are probably questionable at best for this week before practice reports roll in.

Regardless, the Chargers rank 22nd in team defense per our schedule-adjusted rankings and, per Daigle, have given up the fourth-highest rate of explosive passes on the year. Tannehill is an easy QB2 with legitimate QB1 upside in what should be a game we want to target.

Brock Purdy (17% | $7,200) - It would go against my religion to write up a sleepers article and not mention Brock Purdy, whose nickname is redacted from this article. Purdy has been legitimately good in spot-start duty, and he's scored 15 and 21 fantasy points in his two games played despite some non-layup matchups.

Now, Purdy faces the Seattle Seahawks in a key division game. Seattle ranks 26th against the pass, per our schedule-adjusted metrics, and is down to the bottom 10 in pressure rate and hurry rate on the season.

Even with Deebo Samuel out, Purdy's weapons still consist of Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk. Of all the streaming options, Purdy's implied team total of 23.5 is clearly the highest. He's a confident QB2 on Thursday night, provided he plays.

Honorable Mentions: Russell Wilson if he plays (49% | $7,200), Mike White (25% | $7,000), Andy Dalton (9% | $6,700)

Running Backs

Chuba Hubbard (37% | $6,100) - Hubbard's low roster numbers are a classic case of fantasy managers reacting too late to news. Hubbard quietly has 31(!) rushing attempts over the Carolina Panthers' last two games, which is a carry total most sleepers would salivate over.

Hubbard may even have a higher floor than backfield mate D'Onta Foreman considering Hubbard has registered a 9% target share in two of his last four games.

Regardless, Carolina enters as 2.5-point home favorites against either Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett (concussion). Given that Carolina is running the ball at a near league-high clip with Sam Darnold in, and we just saw the ghost of J.K. Dobbins run all over this Pittsburgh Steelers run defense, Hubbard feels like a lock for another 15-plus touches this week.

Dare Ogunbowale (1% | $5,000) - I love me a deep cut. We already know that Dameon Pierce is ruled out for one-to-two weeks with an ankle injury. Eno Benjamin was released. That leaves Rex Burkhead and Ogunbowale to man the backfield.

Ogunbowale, who had quietly been siphoning 20-30% of the backfield snaps the two weeks prior to Pierce's injury, led the backfield with a 37% route rate once Pierce went down, per Dwain McFarland.

That route participation should come in handy against the Kansas City Chiefs considering the Houston Texans are 14.0-point home favorites. Kansas City sports our 23rd-graded rush defense and has permitted the most catches (88), second-most receiving yards (671), and third-most receiving touchdowns (4) to running backs.

Dare is a sleeper in the most classic sense of the word, but given game script, usage, and matchup, he checks the boxes as a desperation PPR flex this week.

Honorable Mentions: Tyler Allgeier (37% | $5,800), Jordan Mason (13% | $5,200), Pierre Strong Jr. if Rhamondre Stevenson is out (10% | $4,500)

Wide Receivers

Parris Campbell (34% | $5,800) - Similar to the D.J. Chark recommendation last week, Campbell is an affordable way to attack the Minnesota Vikings in a cushy matchup. Minnesota is up to second last in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, which matches their pass defense's 27th ranking in our metrics. Minnesota is also a pass funnel, ranking fifth against the run, which may mean more pass volume for Campbell.

We've mentioned Campbell a few times in this space this year, as he's earned nine-plus targets in three of Matt Ryan's starts. In a game that ranks second in pace and fourth in pass rate over expectation this week, we're going to want pieces. Sure enough, this dome game is tied for the highest over/under of the week (48.5). As four-point underdogs in a pass-funnel matchup, Campbell's volume should be secure.

Chris Moore (5% | $6,000) - Last week, I wrote up Nico Collins, who randomly proceeded to not practice all week and miss Week 14 with a foot injury. Chris Moore stepped in and put up 10 catches for 124 yards on 11 targets. Score one for the process, right?

Again, it's too early in the week to know how the Houston Texans receiver corps will shake out. After not practicing all week, Collins is likely questionable at best. Brandin Cooks, who may be quiet quitting, already looks unlikely to play Sunday. Now, it's worth noting with Cooks out in Week 13, it was Phillip Dorsett who ran a route on 81% of the team's drop backs with Moore at just 45%, per Dwain McFarland.

On Sunday with both Cooks and Collins out, however, Moore jumped up to a notable 93% route rate. And more impressively, he earned a target on a whopping 39% of his routes, an elite number.

All of this is to say, I'd rather target Moore than Dorsett because he's shown an ability to earn targets, but Moore is a better recommendation if Collins sits. As 14.0-point home 'dogs, we should expect plenty of passing volume for the Texans again this week against a Chiefs team that's allowed the fifth-most points to wide receivers.

Mack Hollins (30% | $5,700), Elijah Moore (33% | $5,600), Tutu Atwell (1% | $5,100), Demarcus Robinson (14% | $6,000), Jahan Dotson (16% | $5,600), Isaiah Hodgins (1% | $5,700), Terrace Marshall Jr. (5% | $5,300)

Tight Ends

Chigoziem Okonkwo (23% | $5,100) - Everyone's favorite tight end streamer came through for us in a big way last week, tallying season highs in targets (6) and catches (6), scoring a touchdown and two-point conversion, and ending the week as the TE2.

Even though Treylon Burks was out, it's worth noting Okonkwo's rising route rate was about the same as Week 13 when Burks played the first quarter. Now targeted on a blistering (and team-leading) 25% of his routes this season, Okonkwo's 50% route rate feels here to stay.

Obviously, as with most tight ends, the floor is low here. He's still a 50% route player on a run-first offense. But, as mentioned in Tannehill's section above, the Titans have quietly thrown the ball more since Tannehill returned from injury.

This is a game environment to target, and stud safety Derwin James is questionable at best. For all these reasons, Okonkwo is firmly back on the TE1 radar.

Honorable Mentions: Tyler Conklin (28% | $5,000), Juwan Johnson if healthy (20% | $5,200), Jeff Driskel on TE-eligible sites (9% | $6,300)


Eli Weiner is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Eli Weiner also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Eweiner2. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

Related News

An Introduction to FanDuel Research

Jim Sannes  --  Dec 14th, 2022

The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, Mailbag 7/21/23

JJ Zachariason  --  Dec 14th, 2022

The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, Approaching Unique Leagues

JJ Zachariason  --  Dec 14th, 2022