For a lot of people, the goal in getting a top running back is simply a guy who gets a majority of his team's carries. Sure, 30% of his rushes last season, but he looks a lot more attractive this year with #37 RB in our Draft Kit)
Projected Number of Carries 125.3 (53% of DET carries)
Projected Points: 90.34
Making the list over guys such as suspended for the first two games of the season, Leshoure actually figures to have a higher carries output throughout the season when compared to this weekend. But based on the Lions' high draft expectations (second round pick in 2011) and his high level of production at Illinois (with 1697 yards his senior year and a ritual slaughter of Northwestern at Wrigley Field), expect to see him sooner rather than later. I actually like him more than the starter Smith this season.
4. #36 RB in our Draft Kit)
Projected Number of Carries: 127.5 (31% of CAR carries)
Projected Points: 93.78
If Jonathan Stewart (#15 RB in our fantasy draft kit) should be considered the Carolina starter with roughly 50% of the team's projected carries, then it stands to reason that Deangelo Williams should be included in this list as his backup, and not a bad one at that. Williams has hit 100 fantasy points in four of his past five seasons, and the one season he didn't hit that total, he only played six games. The main reason for that fantasy point boom is touchdowns - he has reached the endzone at least seven times in past of the past four years, even with Stewart and #34 RB in our Draft Kit)
Projected Number of Carries: 155.9 (44%)
Projected Points: 102.69
Our resident Steelers fan CEO Nik Bonnadio asked the other day where you would draft Rashard Mendenhall and the answers from the numberFire community were quite clear: late, if at all. #35 RB in our Draft Kit)
Projected Number of Carries: 144.8 (47% of NO carries)
Projected Points: 95.55
Even though fantasy draft kit due to his 7362 (roughly) catches out of the backfield, we expect Mark Ingram to actually get the lion's share of the carries this season. For what it's worth, Saints' official depth chart, but Ingram has the advantage of being four years younger, a first round draft pick that the Saints want to get on the field, and for the first time in the NFL, he looks to be fully healthy. And did I mention that he had a 36% success rate, meaning that he increased his team's chance of scoring 36% of the time he rushed the ball last season? That's better than a good number of starting NFL backs, including #31 RB in our Draft Kit)
Projected Number of Carries: 144.6 (32% of HOU carries)
Projected Points: 122.9
Not only is he the top handcuff on the board due to Mr. Arian Foster, but he's easily the most talented backup available this season as well. Lost in Foster's spectacular season were Tate's 942 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs on only 175 attempts, giving him 128 fantasy points on the season (not bad for a guy in a flex spot, to be certain). His advanced statistics were even better - he had a +0.01 Net Expected Points per rush value last season, meaning that the Texans gained 0.01 expected points every time that he rushed the ball last season. And that number looks even better when you realize that typically, running backs only have positive NEP rates in very extreme scenarios due to the efficiency of going through the air against rushing it on the ground. Even Foster had a -0.08 NEP per play ratio rushing the ball last year. His success rate was astronomically high as well, helping the Texans get a better chance to score when compared with the average back on 43% of his 175 rushes. Tate will be off the board early simply because of his value as a handcuff to Foster, but even if somebody in your league isn't a handcuff type of person, he's worth picking up on his own merits.