As you're filling out your DFS lineups, it's always tempting to simply target the biggest superstars. However, player salaries don't always align with their expected production in a given matchup.
In this preview, I'll highlight a few players who might ordinarily be on your radar but are probably best to avoid this week. These aren't going to be players you absolutely must avoid due to injuries or playing-time demotions but rather players who are in a bad spot due to a matchup or a salary that has risen too high to justify rostering.
Let's take a look at four players who may not live up to expectations this week. All references to betting totals and spreads are from the NCAAF odds. All stats are from Pro Football Reference, unless otherwise noted.
Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers
FanDuel Salary: $7,800
DraftKings Salary: $6,300
Tom Brady is coming off a miserable three-interception performance against the New Orleans Saints, and he's unlikely to have a strong bounce-back game against this much-improved Carolina Panthers defense. Carolina is holding opposing quarterbacks five fantasy points below their season average, and only one quarterback (Patrick Mahomes) has eclipsed his average against the Panthers.
Brady has flashed a high ceiling this season, topping 35 fantasy points twice, but he's also been held under 15 points in four games. That ceiling is enough to put him on our radar for tournament lineups occasionally, but the low floor makes him a risky play against better defenses like Carolina.
James Robinson, RB, Jaguars
FanDuel Salary: $7,300
DraftKings Salary: $6,600
Opponents are averaging just 57.8 plays per game against the Green Bay Packers defense, the second-fewest in the league. Taking that note a step further, opponents are only averaging 40.1 plays per game against Green Bay when the score is within 17 points. The struggling Jacksonville Jaguars are unlikely to buck those trends, which makes it difficult to envision James Robinson seeing a significant workload on Sunday.
Robinson has added to his fantasy value as a receiver, but that may be changing with Jake Luton taking over at quarterback. In Luton's first start last week, Robinson failed to catch a pass for the first time this season and saw just two targets. Given the likely unfavorable game script and his uncertain role in the passing game, this looks like a risky spot to roster Robinson.
D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seahawks
FanDuel Salary: $8,300
DraftKings Salary: $7,600
D.K. Metcalf is having a stellar season, which has caused his salary to rise significantly on both DFS platforms throughout the year. Among receivers on this slate, he carries the fourth-highest cap hit on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings. In other matchups, we could justify rostering Metcalf at his elevated salary, but that's a tough gamble to make on a receiver facing Los Angeles Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey.
According to Next Gen Stats (via ESPN's Seth Walder), Ramsey is forcing a completion rate eight percent below expected as an outside cornerback, the third-best rate in the league. Metcalf is the Seahawks' primary weapon on the outside, with 76 percent of his targets coming while lined up wide, according to Sports Info Solutions. As a result, he's likely to draw consistent coverage from Ramsey and probably doesn't have the elite fantasy ceiling he's shown in recent weeks.
Hunter Henry, TE, Chargers
FanDuel Salary: $5,500
DraftKings Salary: $4,100
Hunter Henry has seen at least seven targets in three of his last four games, but he may have a diminished ceiling against the Miami Dolphins. Opposing tight ends are averaging just 7.7 FanDuel points per game (9.8 DraftKings) against Miami, the seventh-fewest in the league.
Points-allowed data can sometimes be heavily influenced by matchups, but in this case, there's reason to believe Miami really is shutting down tight ends. Safety Eric Rowe, who matches up with tight ends most often on Miami's defense, is allowing just 3.1 yards per target in coverage versus tight ends. Earlier this season, Rowe helped hold George Kittle to just 4 receptions on 8 targets for 44 yards, demonstrating Miami's ability to slow down even the best tight ends.
Ryan McCrystal is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan McCrystal also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username cfbfilmroom. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.