NFL
Fantasy Football: Gdula's Stat Simulations for Week 12

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.

Table Terms

Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel

FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection

Value: Projected FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection.

Value %: The frequency with which a player surpassed the given value threshold over 1,000 simulated weeks.

Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game. For quarterbacks and running backs, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For wide receivers and tight ends, it's 3x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.

FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome.

75th Pct:
The player's FanDuel point projection in the top 75th-percentile of his games, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end outcome.

Quarterback

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 3x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
25+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Matt Ryan $7,900 21.4 35.5% 1.56 29.5% 25.9
Russell Wilson $8,200 20.1 27.7% 0.98 26.3% 25.4
Jameis Winston $7,600 19.7 34.3% 1.24 24.4% 24.8
Drew Brees $8,500 19.5 21.3% 0.57 23.0% 24.4
Baker Mayfield $7,500 18.5 26.5% 0.76 16.2% 22.8
Carson Wentz $7,300 18.0 31.7% 1.00 17.1% 23.2
Tom Brady $7,700 17.8 23.3% 0.61 17.1% 22.7
Josh Allen $7,800 17.6 20.9% 0.52 15.5% 22.7
Derek Carr $7,400 17.2 22.7% 0.55 12.4% 21.6
Dak Prescott $8,100 16.9 17.0% 0.38 14.0% 22.0
Jeff Driskel $7,300 16.7 23.7% 0.59 12.5% 21.6
Sam Darnold $7,400 16.3 22.5% 0.52 13.0% 21.4
Ryan Tannehill $7,100 16.2 23.9% 0.61 10.5% 21.1
Nick Foles $7,200 15.4 20.4% 0.44 10.3% 20.3
Mitchell Trubisky $7,000 15.3 22.8% 0.50 10.7% 20.3
Ryan Fitzpatrick $7,100 14.9 21.4% 0.49 9.6% 20.3
Mason Rudolph $6,900 14.9 20.5% 0.46 8.7% 19.7
Daniel Jones $7,500 14.7 12.8% 0.24 7.6% 19.5
Kyle Allen $6,600 14.3 23.1% 0.55 7.9% 19.3
Dwayne Haskins Jr. $6,700 13.4 19.1% 0.40 6.0% 18.9
Brandon Allen $6,600 12.5 16.5% 0.31 4.2% 17.8
Ryan Finley $6,300 12.2 18.3% 0.34 4.0% 16.8


Cash-Game Standouts
Matt Ryan ($7,900) rates out with -- by far -- the best boom/bust marks of the week, meaning he's got a high floor and a high ceiling in a matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' funnel defense. Jameis Winston ($7,600) rates out second in that metric, though the Atlanta Falcons' defense has performed like a top-10 unit the past two weeks since changing play-callers.

Carson Wentz ($7,300) and Russell Wilson ($8,200) grade out similarly in boom/bust ratio in a game against one another. I talked this week on the Heat Check about pace concerns between two run-heavy offenses in that game, but safe plays at quarterback are quite elusive.

Baker Mayfield ($7,500) is a tier above the rest in a matchup against the Miami Dolphins' 32nd-ranked adjusted pass defense, based on numberFire's metrics.

Tournament Standouts
Those five passers rate out with the best value marks when using the 75th-percentile outcomes in the simulations. After them, it's Ryan Tannehill ($7,100), Jeff Driskel ($7,300), Tom Brady ($7,700), Kyle Allen ($6,600), and Mitchell Trubisky ($7,000).

The most likely passers to top 25 FanDuel points: Ryan, Wilson, Winston, Drew Brees ($8,500), Wentz.

Running Back

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 3x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
20+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Christian McCaffrey $10,500 20.2 11.6% 0.21 49.4% 26.6
Alvin Kamara $8,300 19.1 24.4% 0.63 45.9% 24.7
Nick Chubb $8,200 17.3 20.3% 0.47 39.4% 23.1
Derrick Henry $8,400 16.2 15.2% 0.29 32.3% 22.5
Leonard Fournette $7,000 16.1 29.6% 0.74 34.9% 22.0
Saquon Barkley $7,900 15.9 18.5% 0.36 31.8% 21.9
Josh Jacobs $8,000 15.7 16.6% 0.31 30.4% 21.3
Ezekiel Elliott $8,100 14.9 11.6% 0.20 25.4% 20.1
Chris Carson $7,700 14.7 13.4% 0.25 24.1% 19.8
Le'Veon Bell $7,300 14.7 19.1% 0.39 25.4% 20.2
Jaylen Samuels $6,900 13.7 16.0% 0.31 18.5% 18.4
David Montgomery $6,600 12.5 15.0% 0.28 14.4% 17.4
Joe Mixon $6,700 12.2 11.9% 0.20 12.1% 16.7
Phillip Lindsay $6,300 11.8 15.5% 0.29 11.7% 16.7
Devin Singletary $6,300 11.3 13.7% 0.24 11.0% 15.8
Kareem Hunt $5,600 10.9 16.0% 0.29 6.3% 14.5
James White $6,100 10.8 14.3% 0.26 9.8% 15.2
Brian Hill $5,500 10.6 18.6% 0.36 7.3% 15.2
Miles Sanders $5,600 10.6 15.6% 0.30 5.3% 14.7
Sony Michel $6,300 10.0 9.4% 0.14 7.3% 14.2
Ronald Jones II $6,000 9.7 8.2% 0.13 4.5% 13.9
Kalen Ballage $5,500 9.7 12.3% 0.21 3.4% 13.5
Latavius Murray $5,400 9.1 12.5% 0.21 3.7% 13.3
Tarik Cohen $5,700 8.9 8.2% 0.12 2.8% 12.8
Jordan Howard $6,100 8.6 3.3% 0.04 2.1% 11.8
Bo Scarbrough $6,400 8.5 3.7% 0.05 2.7% 12.5
Adrian Peterson $5,800 8.2 2.8% 0.04 0.6% 11.4
Derrius Guice $5,400 8.0 7.3% 0.11 1.5% 11.9
Royce Freeman $5,300 7.4 7.0% 0.10 1.1% 11.4


Cash-Game Standouts

The best floor/ceiling combinations this week belong to Leonard Fournette ($7,000) and Alvin Kamara ($8,300) by a good margin on a mostly unappealing running back slate in terms of slam-dunk, can't-miss options.

Nick Chubb ($8,200), Le'Veon Bell ($7,300), Saquon Barkley ($7,900), and Brian Hill ($5,500) rate out next.

Miles Sanders ($5,600) is also relatively likely to pay off his price tag if Jordan Howard misses the Philadelphia Eagles' game against the Seattle Seahawks.

Tournament Standouts
If seeking raw upside, McCaffrey, Kamara, Chubb, Fournette, Derrick Henry ($8,400), Barkley, and Josh Jacobs ($8,000) are the most likely to net 20 FanDuel points, which shouldn't surprise us, given their possible workloads.

The best 75th-percentile value ratings belong to Fournette, Kamara, Chubb, Barkley, Bell, Hill, Henry, Jaylen Samuels ($6,900), Jacobs, and Phillip Lindsay ($6,300).

Wide Receiver

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 2x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
15+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Michael Thomas $9,200 19.6 56.6% 2.50 73.1% 25.1
Julio Jones $8,400 17.6 53.4% 1.87 60.4% 22.8
Mike Evans $8,000 15.4 45.7% 1.34 49.8% 20.3
Tyler Lockett $7,400 14.3 48.0% 1.58 46.4% 19.3
Odell Beckham Jr. $7,000 13.7 47.5% 1.39 42.1% 18.3
Chris Godwin $7,800 13.6 40.5% 1.06 43.6% 18.5
Julian Edelman $7,500 13.5 39.5% 1.10 39.5% 17.7
Calvin Ridley $6,700 13.4 49.8% 1.57 40.6% 18.0
DJ Chark Jr. $7,000 12.4 37.3% 0.91 31.3% 16.3
DJ Moore $6,400 12.1 44.5% 1.29 31.1% 15.9
Jarvis Landry $6,900 12.0 38.7% 1.02 31.0% 15.8
Amari Cooper $7,700 12.0 31.8% 0.65 33.0% 17.1
Allen Robinson II $7,500 11.6 25.0% 0.49 25.0% 15.0
John Brown $6,500 11.5 41.4% 1.09 29.5% 15.9
Jamison Crowder $6,500 11.2 40.3% 1.02 28.3% 15.6
Courtland Sutton $6,800 11.0 35.0% 0.78 26.4% 15.2
Kenny Golladay $7,800 10.7 22.9% 0.41 26.0% 15.2
DeVante Parker $6,000 10.7 42.7% 1.10 26.4% 15.3
DK Metcalf $6,700 10.6 33.1% 0.76 24.6% 14.9
Tyrell Williams $6,400 10.3 32.1% 0.71 18.7% 13.9
Marvin Jones Jr. $7,200 10.0 21.3% 0.38 17.6% 13.8
Golden Tate $6,400 10.0 32.1% 0.68 20.6% 14.0
Terry McLaurin $5,800 10.0 40.8% 1.01 17.8% 13.6
Tyler Boyd $5,600 9.9 41.2% 1.03 18.9% 13.8
Michael Gallup $6,800 9.6 27.2% 0.53 20.3% 14.0
Alshon Jeffery $6,200 9.3 30.3% 0.61 16.9% 13.3
Curtis Samuel $5,700 9.3 36.0% 0.85 15.6% 13.0
James Washington $6,100 8.5 23.4% 0.45 9.5% 11.9
Dede Westbrook $5,300 8.4 31.6% 0.70 10.7% 11.6
Sterling Shepard $6,500 8.3 20.6% 0.34 11.2% 12.1
Diontae Johnson $5,600 8.1 26.4% 0.48 10.5% 11.6
Demaryius Thomas $5,200 8.0 31.8% 0.62 9.1% 11.3
Cole Beasley $5,300 7.8 25.6% 0.47 7.3% 10.7
Randall Cobb $6,000 7.8 20.0% 0.33 8.2% 11.0
Taylor Gabriel $5,600 7.7 26.6% 0.49 9.2% 11.5
Hunter Renfrow $5,900 7.6 21.4% 0.35 6.5% 11.2
Robby Anderson $5,400 7.6 25.1% 0.46 7.8% 10.8
Russell Gage $5,300 7.5 26.9% 0.50 8.4% 10.9
A.J. Brown $5,300 7.4 30.4% 0.59 8.4% 11.4
Phillip Dorsett II $5,400 7.3 20.1% 0.35 4.4% 10.1
Darius Slayton $6,300 7.3 13.1% 0.20 6.2% 10.7
Chris Conley $5,700 7.1 19.4% 0.32 7.2% 10.4
Danny Amendola $5,700 7.1 18.2% 0.29 4.4% 10.3
Nelson Agholor $4,800 6.8 24.9% 0.46 2.8% 9.6
Ted Ginn Jr. $5,200 6.6 22.6% 0.38 3.3% 10.1
Corey Davis $5,200 6.6 18.5% 0.30 3.0% 9.3


Cash-Game Standouts

Michael Thomas ($9,200) defies odds in the simulations and is expected to come through even at a high price. Julio Jones ($8,400) isn't far behind. I disagree with the sims on ranking Tyler Lockett ($7,400) third in boom/bust ratio. Calvin Ridley ($6,700), Odell Beckham ($7,000), and Mike Evans ($8,000) make the top six here, so that goes against what we normally seek in cash games for FanDuel (i.e. spending up at running back instead of receiver).

The premier value options are D.J. Moore ($6,400), DeVante Parker ($6,000), John Brown ($6,500), and Jamison Crowder ($6,500).

Tournament Standouts
The best 75th-percentile values belong to Thomas, Jones, Ridley, Beckham, Lockett, Parker, Evans, Moore, Tyler Boyd ($5,600), and John Brown.

Among players priced at or below $6,000, those marks belong to Parker, Boyd, Terry McLaurin ($5,800), Curtis Samuel ($5,700), Dede Westbrook ($5,300), and Demaryius Thomas ($5,200).

Tight End

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 2x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
15+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Zach Ertz $6,100 11.845.8%1.2929.8%15.9
Darren Waller $6,200 10.739.5%1.0123.6%14.7
Jared Cook $6,000 8.019.0%0.327.7%11.2
Greg Olsen $5,100 7.729.8%0.625.9%11.0
Vance McDonald $5,300 7.626.2%0.505.5%10.7
Noah Fant $5,100 7.227.8%0.506.0%10.8
Dallas Goedert $5,200 6.923.7%0.434.1%10.2
Jacob Hollister $5,800 6.415.0%0.224.1%9.9
Jason Witten $5,300 6.418.1%0.284.5%9.6
Mike Gesicki $5,000 6.222.8%0.393.1%9.6
Ryan Griffin $5,600 6.214.7%0.214.4%9.3
T.J. Hockenson $4,900 5.617.7%0.281.8%8.8
Tyler Eifert $5,000 5.617.2%0.262.8%8.8
Cameron Brate $5,400 5.510.4%0.141.3%8.3
Jonnu Smith $5,300 5.211.6%0.161.6%8.3
Dawson Knox $4,800 4.913.9%0.201.1%7.7


Cash-Game Standouts

Zach Ertz ($6,100) pops as the number-one tight end play in the simulations, based on boom/bust ratio. It's not really that close, though Darren Waller ($6,200) is a huge tier above everybody else. The salary-saving option looks to be Greg Olsen ($5,100), followed by Vance McDonald ($5,300) and Noah Fant ($5,100).

Tournament Standouts
Those five have the best 75th-percentile value outcomes in the simulations, but Ertz (29.8%) and Waller (23.6%) are the only tight ends more than 8.0% likely to hit 15 FanDuel points. Tight end is always volatile, but if you can get to Ertz or Waller, your odds for superb tight end production jump up.

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