NFL
Fantasy Football: Gdula's Stat Simulations for Week 7

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.

Table Terms

Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel
FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection
Value: Projected FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection.
Value %: The frequency with which a player surpassed the given value threshold over 1,000 simulated weeks.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game. For quarterbacks and running backs, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For wide receivers and tight ends, it's 3x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome.
75th Pct: The player's FanDuel point projection in the top 75th-percentile of his games, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end outcome.

Quarterback

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 3x

Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
25+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Lamar Jackson $8,400 21.2 32.3% 1.13 33.3% 26.8
Matt Ryan $7,900 21.1 36.4% 1.56 30.1% 26.0
Russell Wilson $8,500 21.1 29.6% 1.03 32.1% 26.5
Josh Allen $7,700 21.0 36.7% 1.54 26.6% 25.5
Deshaun Watson $8,300 21.0 30.1% 1.16 29.6% 26.2
Kyler Murray $7,700 20.8 37.5% 1.57 29.1% 26.0
Jared Goff $7,800 20.4 31.1% 1.04 24.4% 24.9
Aaron Rodgers $7,600 19.9 34.0% 1.39 23.9% 24.8
Daniel Jones $7,200 19.0 34.8% 1.14 19.1% 23.7
Jacoby Brissett $7,300 17.9 28.8% 0.90 15.8% 22.8
Gardner Minshew II $6,900 17.4 33.6% 1.07 16.4% 22.4
Jimmy Garoppolo $7,500 16.9 24.5% 0.62 15.2% 22.4
Kirk Cousins $7,300 16.7 23.0% 0.61 12.1% 21.4
Matthew Stafford $7,300 16.2 20.6% 0.51 10.5% 20.9
Andy Dalton $6,900 16.0 28.8% 0.77 12.1% 21.6
Philip Rivers $7,600 16.0 18.0% 0.38 10.3% 20.9
Mitchell Trubisky $6,800 15.4 25.3% 0.63 10.2% 20.5
Derek Carr $6,500 14.9 24.4% 0.57 7.3% 19.3
Ryan Tannehill $6,400 14.6 27.3% 0.63 8.7% 19.7
Teddy Bridgewater $7,000 13.5 14.9% 0.28 5.4% 18.1
Case Keenum $6,600 12.5 14.6% 0.27 3.6% 17.3
Ryan Fitzpatrick $6,400 10.8 12.1% 0.19 2.8% 15.3


Cash-Game Standouts

- Quarterback is a little scary to me this week, but Kyler Murray ($7,700) has the right stuff and matchup and projections and junk to be my cash-game preference in a possible shootout with the New York Giants. The next four passers in terms of boom/bust ratio -- effectively: good games versus bad games -- are Matt Ryan ($00), Josh Allen ($7,700), Aaron Rodgers ($7,600), and Deshaun Watson ($8,300). Of note, Lamar Jackson ($8,400) ranks seventh in a road tilt with the Seattle Seahawks, an opponent that likes to run the ball plenty. The cheaper plays are Daniel Jones ($7,200) and Gardner Minshew ($6,900), who are sixth and eighth, respectively, in boom/bust ratio.

Tournament Standouts
- Jones is third in projected value when using the 75th-percentile outcome rather than the median outcome. Minshew is sixth. Other than that, it's the higher-floor passers who stand out most: Murray, Allen, Ryan, Rodgers, and Jackson. Jared Goff ($7,800) ranks eighth in 75th-percentile value. Of note, Watson is ninth and may have a higher floor than ceiling against an Indianapolis Colts team that can try to take the air out of the ball and grind clock.

If seeking pure upside regardless of price, the most likely passers to surpass 25.0 FanDuel points are Jackson, Russell Wilson ($8,500), Ryan, Watson, and Murray.

Running Back

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 3x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
20+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Leonard Fournette $7,900 20.1 37.8% 1.16 51.7% 27.3
Saquon Barkley $8,600 18.6 26.3% 0.59 44.7% 26.3
Dalvin Cook $8,300 18.2 23.8% 0.53 40.6% 24.6
David Johnson $7,400 16.9 28.2% 0.67 36.3% 23.3
Chris Carson $7,600 16.5 26.9% 0.61 36.2% 23.6
Derrick Henry $6,500 14.3 29.6% 0.64 27.3% 20.6
Aaron Jones $7,600 14.1 13.9% 0.26 24.2% 19.7
Devonta Freeman $6,400 13.6 24.1% 0.53 20.8% 18.7
Kerryon Johnson $6,800 13.4 18.9% 0.36 20.8% 19.1
Alvin Kamara $7,800 13.1 6.4% 0.10 15.5% 17.9
Josh Jacobs $6,700 12.9 16.1% 0.30 16.5% 17.8
Marlon Mack $7,100 12.9 15.1% 0.29 19.7% 18.8
Joe Mixon $6,100 12.2 21.2% 0.43 14.7% 17.1
Melvin Gordon III $6,600 12.0 17.7% 0.31 17.1% 17.5
Tevin Coleman $6,200 11.7 21.9% 0.43 18.7% 17.6
Mark Ingram II $7,500 11.5 8.9% 0.13 14.6% 16.9
Todd Gurley II $7,100 11.4 7.2% 0.11 10.8% 16.5
David Montgomery $5,900 11.3 21.1% 0.39 13.2% 16.7
Austin Ekeler $6,900 11.2 8.6% 0.13 9.9% 15.5
Frank Gore $6,000 10.8 15.3% 0.25 10.1% 15.0
Carlos Hyde $6,300 10.2 11.0% 0.17 8.4% 15.2
Matt Breida $5,600 10.1 17.9% 0.31 8.5% 14.7
Kenyan Drake $5,400 9.9 23.1% 0.43 10.3% 15.5
Jamaal Williams $5,400 9.4 18.2% 0.33 7.6% 14.7
Adrian Peterson $5,700 9.4 12.9% 0.21 5.7% 14.0
Devin Singletary $5,800 9.0 11.8% 0.18 5.7% 13.6
Tarik Cohen $5,500 8.4 13.2% 0.20 5.5% 13.3
Chris Thompson $5,200 7.0 5.0% 0.07 1.0% 11.0
Duke Johnson $5,400 6.9 5.9% 0.08 1.7% 10.5
Nyheim Hines $4,800 6.5 8.6% 0.12 0.6% 10.4
Latavius Murray $5,300 6.5 6.3% 0.08 1.2% 10.7


Cash-Game Standouts

- Leonard Fournette ($7,900) is the top play in boom/bust ratio, median value, and 75th-percentile value. David Johnson ($7,400) and Derrick Henry ($6,500) are top three in each. Of the three, Fournette is my favorite. Johnson has injury concerns, but if he goes, he's clearly number two. Even with the simulations loving Henry, I don't think I'll be enticed even at his price. Of note, Chris Carson ($7,600) had a better floor/ceiling combo than Saquon Barkley ($8,600) when adjusting for price, but I'm locking Barkley and Fournette into cash games this weekend. If spending down, Devonta Freeman ($6,400) is the most interesting in terms of boom/bust potential.

Tournament Standouts
- Fournette and Barkley have enough upside for tournaments, but Dalvin Cook ($8,300) ranks third in 75th-percentile projections (6th in 75th-percentile value). The top three backs -- plus David Johnson and Chris Carson -- are the most likely to get past 20.0 FanDuel points. Spending up at running back and putting a pricey back in the flex makes a lot of sense this week for tournament lineups.

Among sub-$7,000 backs, the best 75th-percentile values belong to Freeman, Kenyan Drake ($5,400), Tevin Coleman ($6,200), David Montgomery ($5,900), and Kerryon Johnson ($6,800).

Wide Receiver

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 2x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
15+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Julio Jones $8,200 16.1 52.0% 1.68 57.7% 21.9
Cooper Kupp $7,800 15.7 50.3% 1.63 53.2% 21.4
DeAndre Hopkins $8,000 14.7 44.2% 1.21 49.3% 20.1
Michael Thomas $8,100 14.6 41.2% 1.15 47.5% 19.6
Tyler Lockett $6,500 13.8 54.1% 1.72 44.1% 19.6
T.Y. Hilton $7,600 13.6 43.8% 1.11 44.5% 19.6
Keenan Allen $7,500 13.2 39.6% 0.95 39.6% 18.4
Adam Thielen $7,100 13.1 44.6% 1.20 40.7% 18.0
Robert Woods $7,300 12.9 40.7% 0.96 38.6% 18.3
Kenny Golladay $7,100 12.6 40.0% 1.00 36.1% 17.1
Tyler Boyd $5,600 12.5 57.0% 1.91 38.3% 17.9
Larry Fitzgerald $5,600 12.2 55.6% 1.75 33.6% 17.4
Stefon Diggs $6,800 12.2 46.1% 1.27 36.3% 17.2
DJ Chark Jr. $6,600 12.0 45.1% 1.21 36.8% 17.3
Brandin Cooks $6,700 11.9 41.6% 1.01 34.4% 17.1
Allen Robinson II $7,000 11.9 40.0% 0.94 35.1% 17.1
Davante Adams $8,000 11.6 22.5% 0.42 26.5% 15.3
John Brown $5,900 11.4 47.5% 1.32 29.9% 16.2
Will Fuller V $6,300 11.4 43.7% 1.09 31.8% 16.4
Terry McLaurin $6,400 11.1 40.7% 0.98 29.5% 16.3
Golden Tate $6,100 10.7 42.2% 1.02 28.9% 15.9
Calvin Ridley $5,500 10.3 47.0% 1.27 26.8% 15.3
Christian Kirk $5,600 9.9 39.5% 0.93 19.9% 14.0
Dede Westbrook $5,400 9.8 41.4% 1.00 20.7% 14.0
Marvin Jones Jr. $5,600 9.8 42.0% 1.03 21.7% 14.5
Marquez Valdes-Scantling $6,300 9.5 31.6% 0.63 19.8% 14.1
Mike Williams $6,200 9.5 30.7% 0.61 19.8% 13.8
Sterling Shepard $6,500 9.4 26.5% 0.52 15.3% 13.2
Mohamed Sanu $5,500 9.3 40.4% 0.94 20.7% 13.9
DK Metcalf $6,200 9.2 34.0% 0.70 20.1% 13.9
Cole Beasley $5,600 9.1 38.4% 0.83 18.4% 13.5
Auden Tate $5,900 8.7 31.5% 0.64 16.7% 12.9
Marquise Brown $5,400 8.4 33.3% 0.70 11.9% 12.2
Tyrell Williams $5,900 7.9 23.7% 0.42 8.1% 11.6
Corey Davis $5,000 7.7 35.9% 0.73 13.5% 11.9
Preston Williams $5,100 7.5 35.0% 0.70 12.7% 12.0
Geronimo Allison $5,700 7.4 20.6% 0.36 6.3% 10.6
Darius Slayton $5,400 7.2 25.3% 0.43 8.6% 10.8
Dante Pettis $5,100 7.2 31.8% 0.60 10.3% 11.4
Adam Humphries $5,100 7.0 29.0% 0.54 9.3% 10.8
A.J. Brown $5,300 6.9 25.9% 0.45 8.9% 10.8
Deebo Samuel $5,300 6.7 25.9% 0.45 7.4% 10.7
Willie Snead IV $4,600 6.5 31.2% 0.58 8.2% 10.3
Marquise Goodwin $5,000 6.4 26.4% 0.47 6.3% 10.2
Hunter Renfrow $4,800 6.3 30.1% 0.54 5.7% 10.3
DeVante Parker $5,400 6.3 22.3% 0.36 6.9% 10.3
Chris Conley $4,600 6.2 30.2% 0.54 8.2% 10.3
Taylor Gabriel $4,800 6.1 23.8% 0.40 3.5% 9.4


Cash-Game Standouts

- Some cheap options at receiver will help spend up at running back if that's the plan you prefer. Tyler Boyd ($5,600), Larry Fitzgerald ($5,600), John Brown ($5,900), and Calvin Ridley ($5,500) grade out with top-seven boom/bust ratios, though my preference is Boyd by a mile in cash games, followed by Fitzgerald -- and even over Fitzgerald -- Christian Kirk ($5,600) if he plays. The sturdiest expensive receivers on the board are Julio Jones ($8,200) and Cooper Kupp ($7,800) in a potential shootout against one another.

Tournament Standouts
- Using the 75th-percentile outcomes -- so a realistic ceiling for a player compared to his FanDuel salary -- the best values are Boyd, Fitzgerald, Tyler Lockett ($6,500), Ridley, Brown, Kupp, Jones, D.J. Chark ($6,600), Golden Tate ($6,100), and Will Fuller ($6,300). I'm hoping recency bias limits the public perception on Fuller, as he actually had more air yards in Week 6 than he did in Week 5's explosion. Two cheaper plays still in the top 12 in this measure are Dede Westbrook ($5,400) and Marvin Jones ($5,600).

DeAndre Hopkins ($8,000) has had some concerning peripherals but still grades out with a 49.3% chance to surpass 15.0 FanDuel points and a 25.4% chance to get to 20.0, ranking third in each. People may flock to Jones and Kupp after Hopkins' recent down games.

Tight End

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 2x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
15+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Evan Engram $6,800 12.9 45.8% 1.23 38.5% 18.0
George Kittle $7,100 12.6 42.5% 1.05 36.9% 17.3
Austin Hooper $6,600 11.4 40.7% 0.99 30.2% 16.1
Darren Waller $6,200 11.2 43.8% 1.16 28.2% 15.5
Mark Andrews $6,700 11.1 38.1% 0.87 29.0% 15.7
Hunter Henry $5,700 9.4 39.2% 0.90 20.4% 13.9
Jimmy Graham $5,800 7.7 24.7% 0.43 10.8% 11.6
Delanie Walker $5,200 7.6 30.4% 0.58 9.1% 11.4
Gerald Everett $5,900 7.0 22.3% 0.36 9.1% 11.3
T.J. Hockenson $5,400 6.6 24.5% 0.42 9.0% 10.7
Eric Ebron $5,300 6.1 21.5% 0.33 6.7% 9.9
Jack Doyle $4,900 6.0 23.8% 0.40 5.7% 9.6
Jared Cook $5,800 5.9 15.3% 0.22 5.7% 9.7
Tyler Eifert $4,500 5.4 27.5% 0.48 4.0% 9.5
Vernon Davis $4,800 5.3 24.6% 0.40 4.7% 9.5
Dawson Knox $4,800 5.3 21.8% 0.34 4.7% 9.0
Trey Burton $4,800 5.1 21.0% 0.33 3.3% 8.9


Cash-Game Standouts

- As usual, the tight end pool is pretty shallow this week in terms of high-floor options. The five players priced above $6,000 -- George Kittle ($7,100), Evan Engram ($6,800), Mark Andrews ($6,700), Austin Hooper ($6,600), and Darren Waller ($6,200) -- are the five of the six best boom/bust plays, with Hunter Henry ($5,700) being the lone exception. The cheaper play with the best boom/bust ratio is Delanie Walker ($5,200), though I won't be using him in cash games and will prioritize Henry or Engram.

Tournament Standouts
- With tight ends, the high-floor plays are the ones with enough volume to project for high ceilings. Engram is the best play on the board in terms of 75th-percentile outcome value and also the top play by boom/bust ratio. Some other interesting pivots are Jimmy Graham ($5,800), Gerald Everett ($5,900), and T.J. Hockenson ($5,400) if seeking players with relatively high ceilings. Dawson Knox ($4,800) doesn't grade out well at all in the simulations, but he's a punt play option as a huge home favorite against the Miami Dolphins.

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