NFL
Daily Fantasy Football: Gdula's Game Simulations for Week 3

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most-likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks.

Table Terms

Salary: A player's main slate salary on FanDuel
FDP: A player's median FanDuel projection
Value: Projected FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection.
Value %: The frequency with which a player surpassed the given value threshold over 1,000 simulated weeks.
Boom/Bust Ratio: The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game. For quarterbacks and running backs, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For wide receivers, it's 3x versus less than 1.5x. For tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
FDP%: The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome.
75th Pct: The player's FanDuel point projection in the top 75th-percentile of his games, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end outcome.

Quarterback

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 3x
Value %
Boom/Bust
Ratio
30+
FDP %
75th
Pct
Dak Prescott $8,400 22.8 36.8% 1.55 16.9% 28.0
Patrick Mahomes $9,200 22.5 25.6% 0.88 16.2% 27.7
Lamar Jackson $8,500 21.9 32.9% 1.35 17.4% 27.4
Jameis Winston $7,300 20.2 43.0% 2.10 10.6% 25.8
Deshaun Watson $8,200 19.9 27.9% 0.90 9.8% 25.2
Josh Allen $7,500 19.7 38.6% 1.41 8.1% 25.3
Tom Brady $7,800 19.6 29.2% 0.93 8.2% 24.5
Carson Wentz $7,700 19.4 30.3% 0.99 7.9% 24.4
Russell Wilson $7,600 19.0 29.6% 0.92 9.2% 24.1
Kyler Murray $7,200 19.0 38.1% 1.45 5.9% 24.3
Aaron Rodgers $7,900 18.9 25.3% 0.74 8.0% 23.7
Matt Ryan $7,800 18.9 28.4% 0.89 7.6% 24.2
Philip Rivers $7,500 18.6 28.8% 0.90 6.0% 23.5
Kirk Cousins $7,200 17.9 31.8% 1.00 6.7% 23.1
Jacoby Brissett $6,800 17.9 36.9% 1.31 5.8% 23.1
Jimmy Garoppolo $7,200 17.6 29.4% 0.85 5.7% 22.8
Matthew Stafford $6,900 16.6 31.2% 0.87 3.6% 22.4
Daniel Jones $6,000 16.2 40.4% 1.41 3.5% 21.5
Mason Rudolph $6,600 15.7 31.0% 0.84 2.8% 21.1
Andy Dalton $7,100 14.9 17.9% 0.39 2.0% 19.5
Kyle Allen $6,000 14.2 29.6% 0.81 1.0% 18.7
Derek Carr $6,700 14.0 22.0% 0.47 1.1% 19.3


Cash-Game Standouts
- The top-four passer in terms of 3x value games are Jameis Winston (43.0%), Daniel Jones (40.4%), Josh Allen (38.6%), and Kyler Murray (38.1%). I don't think I'll be considering any of the minimum-salary passers this week, but Winston, Allen, and Murray are on my short list for cash-game options. If spending up, it'll likely be Dak Prescott (36.8%) or Lamar Jackson (32.9%).

High-Floor, High-Ceiling Plays
- Measured by boom/bust ratio, Winston (2.10 games of 3x value for every game shy of 1.5x) really stands out against such a terrible New York Giants team, which ranks 31st in adjusted pass defense, based on numberFire's metrics. Prescott (1.55), Murray (1.45), Allen (1.41), Jones (1.41), Jackson (1.35), and Jacoby Brissett (1.31) also grade out well.

Tournament Standouts
- The top 75th-percentile outcomes belong to pricier options, starting with Prescott (28.0), followed closely by Patrick Mahomes (27.7) and Lamar Jackson. The 75th-percentile marks above 20 among passers below $7,000 belong to Brissett (23.1), Matthew Stafford ($22.4), Daniel Jones (21.5), and Mason Rudolph (21.1).

Bust Candidates
- Despite the minimum salary for Luke Falk (40.4%) and Josh Rosen (37.0%), they each appear with the highest likelihood of falling below 1.5x value this week as massive underdogs. Teddy Bridgewater (35.7%), Derek Carr (28.9%), Joe Flacco (28.4%), and Andy Dalton (27.9%) also busted at least a quarter of the time.

Running Back

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 2x
Value
Boom/Bust
Ratio
20+
FDP
75th
Pct
Ezekiel Elliott $8,800 22.1 61.8% 0.93 55.2% 30.1
Christian McCaffrey $8,900 22.0 62.6% 0.93 54.9% 30.2
Saquon Barkley $9,200 18.9 55.4% 0.53 48.9% 27.3
Austin Ekeler $7,600 18.5 65.7% 1.03 47.9% 26.3
Dalvin Cook $8,300 18.4 53.2% 0.55 41.3% 25.2
Alvin Kamara $8,000 17.0 56.6% 0.70 43.0% 25.5
David Johnson $7,000 17.0 63.0% 0.97 38.8% 24.2
Le'Veon Bell $7,700 15.5 47.8% 0.42 31.6% 22.1
Chris Carson $7,000 15.3 55.2% 0.58 30.2% 21.4
Aaron Jones $6,900 14.4 53.4% 0.51 25.9% 20.5
James Conner $7,400 13.0 45.0% 0.33 23.9% 19.8
Marlon Mack $7,000 12.9 45.7% 0.34 20.9% 18.6
Sony Michel $6,800 12.7 46.6% 0.32 18.1% 18.2
Josh Jacobs $6,500 12.0 44.2% 0.31 15.8% 17.2
Kerryon Johnson $6,600 12.0 42.4% 0.26 14.7% 17.1
Joe Mixon $6,500 11.9 44.1% 0.35 18.6% 17.6
Phillip Lindsay $6,400 11.6 44.4% 0.29 13.6% 16.6
Peyton Barber $6,100 11.1 44.9% 0.32 13.6% 16.5
Mark Ingram II $7,100 11.1 35.1% 0.13 12.1% 16.2
Damien Williams $6,400 11.1 38.8% 0.16 8.4% 15.6
Devonta Freeman $6,200 11.1 43.2% 0.30 13.6% 16.2
Matt Breida $5,900 10.4 41.4% 0.22 6.4% 14.7
Frank Gore $5,700 10.2 45.4% 0.31 8.5% 15.4
James White $6,200 9.7 33.0% 0.20 10.0% 14.5
Miles Sanders $5,400 9.5 42.9% 0.33 7.1% 14.7
Duke Johnson $5,400 9.4 43.0% 0.30 8.1% 14.3
Royce Freeman $5,900 9.2 37.0% 0.19 6.2% 13.9
LeSean McCoy $5,500 9.1 43.5% 0.26 6.0% 13.9
Kenyan Drake $5,300 9.0 41.9% 0.31 8.0% 14.3
Devin Singletary $5,800 8.4 29.6% 0.09 2.2% 12.6
Carlos Hyde $6,000 8.4 26.1% 0.08 2.3% 12.1
Rex Burkhead $4,600 8.3 43.9% 0.39 4.4% 13.2
Raheem Mostert $6,000 8.2 26.1% 0.08 2.9% 12.3


Cash-Game Standouts

- The 8 of the 9 running backs who returned at least 2x value in half of the simulated weeks -- Austin Ekeler, David Johnson, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Chris Carson, Aaron Jones, and Dalvin Cook -- are at least $7,000 on FanDuel. Jones is $6,900. It's a week to spend up for running backs in cash games.

High-Floor, High-Ceiling Plays
- The same nine backs had at least 0.5 games of 3x value for every game shy of 2x value, reiterating that the floor/ceiling combos come from spending up.

Tournament Standouts
- Despite playing with a backup passer, McCaffrey has the highest 75th-percentile outcome of the week (30.2). Elliott (30.1) is the only other back above Barkley's 27.3. The volume should be there for McCaffrey in an uptempo game against Arizona.

Bust Candidates
- Among 34 backs projected for a median outcome of 7.0 FanDuel points, the least likely to return 1.5x value are Carlos Hyde (55.0%), Justin Jackson (53.2%), Raheem Mostert (53.1%, and James White (50.6%). The primary bust candidates among backs priced at least $7,000 include Mark Ingram (47.8%), James Conner (39.2%), Marlon Mack (36.4%), and Le'Veon Bell (35.3%), all of whom -- excluding Mack -- are road underdogs.

Wide Receiver

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 2x
Value
Boom/Bust
Ratio
15+
FDP
75th
Pct
Keenan Allen $7,800 16.8 57.5% 0.83 58.4% 23.4
DeAndre Hopkins $8,900 16.1 43.9% 0.35 54.4% 22.6
Julio Jones $8,300 15.9 47.5% 0.61 53.9% 23.4
Davante Adams $8,200 15.7 46.8% 0.53 53.0% 22.7
Amari Cooper $7,700 14.9 50.0% 0.57 51.2% 22.1
Michael Thomas $8,000 14.4 45.8% 0.50 49.8% 22.2
Sammy Watkins $7,100 14.1 49.1% 0.65 46.0% 21.1
Chris Godwin $7,600 13.7 44.3% 0.46 45.0% 20.8
Adam Thielen $7,000 13.7 49.7% 0.67 45.3% 20.7
Mike Evans $7,100 13.5 48.5% 0.59 46.4% 20.5
JuJu Smith-Schuster $7,500 13.3 43.5% 0.44 43.5% 20.6
T.Y. Hilton $7,400 13.0 45.2% 0.42 44.6% 19.8
Kenny Golladay $7,000 12.8 46.5% 0.51 42.1% 19.2
Tyler Lockett $6,600 12.5 47.8% 0.57 40.7% 18.8
Larry Fitzgerald $5,900 12.2 50.7% 0.75 38.4% 18.5
Stefon Diggs $6,700 12.2 43.0% 0.43 36.5% 17.9
Julian Edelman $6,900 12.0 39.9% 0.34 34.4% 17.3
DJ Moore $6,500 11.5 43.5% 0.44 34.2% 17.3
Tyler Boyd $6,600 11.5 44.3% 0.45 36.4% 17.9
Emmanuel Sanders $5,700 11.3 47.9% 0.63 32.6% 16.7
Marquise Brown $6,100 11.3 46.7% 0.55 34.9% 17.3
Christian Kirk $5,900 11.1 47.9% 0.61 34.9% 17.6
John Brown $5,900 11.1 45.9% 0.45 30.4% 16.3
Calvin Ridley $6,500 10.9 38.7% 0.34 30.3% 16.5
Tyrell Williams $6,200 10.7 40.7% 0.35 29.9% 16.3
Nelson Agholor $4,800 10.5 53.5% 0.98 31.3% 16.3
Will Fuller V $6,000 9.8 38.5% 0.34 26.0% 15.2
Sterling Shepard $6,000 9.8 34.7% 0.17 16.8% 13.5
Mike Williams $6,100 9.8 37.4% 0.31 24.1% 14.9
Curtis Samuel $5,800 9.8 41.8% 0.36 24.2% 14.8
Josh Gordon $6,000 9.6 34.3% 0.20 21.7% 14.1
Jamison Crowder $6,200 9.6 37.3% 0.30 25.8% 15.2
Randall Cobb $5,300 9.6 48.1% 0.53 25.0% 15.0
DK Metcalf $6,200 9.6 34.2% 0.22 22.5% 14.5
Marvin Jones Jr. $5,400 9.5 42.5% 0.42 22.1% 14.3
John Ross III $6,700 9.4 29.6% 0.12 22.3% 14.5
Alshon Jeffery $6,700 9.0 21.0% 0.03 13.9% 12.6
Courtland Sutton $5,600 8.9 39.0% 0.31 19.5% 13.8
Robby Anderson $5,700 8.8 34.0% 0.25 19.7% 13.4
Demarcus Robinson $6,700 8.4 23.4% 0.08 17.7% 13.0
Marquez Valdes-
Scantling
$5,300 8.3 36.4% 0.24 14.4% 12.8
Cole Beasley $5,100 8.3 40.9% 0.34 16.6% 13.1
Deebo Samuel $5,500 8.2 33.9% 0.19 14.4% 12.5
Mecole Hardman $6,300 8.2 25.9% 0.10 17.1% 12.8
Mohamed Sanu $5,300 7.6 34.6% 0.25 16.5% 12.8
Preston Williams $5,100 7.4 33.6% 0.24 12.8% 11.8
Danny Amendola $4,900 7.2 34.0% 0.23 10.0% 11.4
DeVante Parker $4,800 7.1 34.3% 0.27 12.8% 11.7


Cash-Game Standouts

- Four wideouts hit 2x value in at least half of the sims: Keenan Allen (57.5%), Nelson Agholor (53.5%), Larry Fitzgerald (50.7%), and Amari Cooper (50.0%) with Adam Thielen (49.7%), Sammy Watkins (49.1%), Mike Evans (48.5%), and Randall Cobb (48.1%) closest behind. Agholor ($4,800), Fitzgerald ($5,900), and Cobb ($5,300) offer salary relief.

High-Floor, High-Ceiling Plays
- Agholor (0.98) stands out in boom/bust rate, hitting 2x value nearly as often as he falls shy of 1.5x. Volatility at receiver limits safety even when spending up, but Allen (0.83), Thielen (0.67), Watkins (0.65), Julio Jones (0.61), and Mike Evans (0.59) project as high floor/ceiling options this week. It's worth noting that Fitzgerald (0.75) ranks third, and Emmanuel Sanders (0.63) is sixth at just $5,700.

Tournament Standouts
- The top scores in the 75th-percentile mark all belong to the pricey options. The best high-outcome game for a wideout below $7,000 is Tyler Lockett ($6,600) at 12.5. Lockett joins the $7,000-plus receivers in terms of 20-point games at 20.0%. The highest rates of 20-plus-point games come from Keenan Allen (37.7%), Julio Jones (35.6%), DeAndre Hopkins (35.0%), Davante Adams (33.3%), Michael Thomas (32.1%), and Amari Cooper (31.4%).

Among cheaper plays, Adam Thielen (27.1%), Kenny Golladay (22.6%), Tyler Lockett (20.0%), Larry Fitzgerald (19.4%), Stefon Diggs (18.6%), Tyler Boyd (18.0%), Christian Kirk (17.2%), D.J. Moore (17.2%), and Marquise Brown (16.3%) pop. I'll have Moore in game stacks, and I think that I'll pretend that Brown's projection is even higher in his matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Bust Candidates
- Among 37 wideouts with a median projection of at least 7.0 FanDuel points, both Demarcus Robinson ($6,700) and Mecole Hardman ($6,300) appear as likely bust candidates, failing to hit 1.5x value in about 60% of their games due entirely to their price hike. Their raw projections are fine, but the price makes them more of game-stack-only plays. I'll also point out John Ross ($6,700), who does face a Buffalo Bills defense that limits deep-ball production.

Tight End

Simulation Results

Player Salary FDP 2x Value Boom/Bust
Ratio
15+
FDP
75th
Pct
Travis Kelce $8,000 15.28 44.4% 1.09 48.2% 21.9
Zach Ertz $6,900 13.79 50.0% 1.42 44.0% 19.7
George Kittle $6,600 12.84 46.0% 1.19 38.7% 18.4
Mark Andrews $6,800 11.64 38.8% 0.85 34.0% 17.2
Evan Engram $6,400 11.39 45.2% 1.11 34.6% 17.7
Darren Waller $5,900 9.47 37.8% 0.83 23.5% 14.6
Greg Olsen $6,100 8.64 31.4% 0.60 17.1% 13.5
Austin Hooper $5,800 7.94 30.7% 0.56 15.7% 12.7
Vance McDonald $5,900 7.78 27.7% 0.51 14.6% 12.6
O.J. Howard $5,800 7.75 24.0% 0.43 9.9% 11.4
T.J. Hockenson $5,500 7.52 28.1% 0.50 11.6% 11.6
Jason Witten $5,000 7.02 35.6% 0.70 13.4% 12.0
Kyle Rudolph $4,800 6.82 31.9% 0.59 8.9% 10.6
Jared Cook $5,800 6.75 22.7% 0.36 9.9% 11.1
Eric Ebron $5,700 6.26 20.2% 0.31 8.4% 10.2
Will Dissly $5,400 6.00 20.6% 0.32 5.6% 10.1
Jimmy Graham $4,900 5.92 26.4% 0.44 7.7% 10.1
Tyler Eifert $4,900 5.72 26.4% 0.44 6.5% 10.1
Jack Doyle $5,200 5.62 19.8% 0.30 5.2% 9.3
Noah Fant $4,600 5.24 22.2% 0.36 3.2% 8.8


Cash-Game Standouts

- There's a big four in 2x value: Zach Ertz (50.0%), George Kittle (46.0%), Evan Engram (45.2%), and Travis Kelce (44.4%). They're also the only four to provide at least 2x value more frequently than they fell shy of 1.5x value.

Tournament Standouts
- In addition to the top four, just two tight ends produced at least 15.0 FanDuel points in 20% of their simulated games: Mark Andrews (34.0%) and Darren Waller (23.5%)

Bust Candidates
- Everyone is at tight end, but four who are priced above $5,000 and fell shy of 1.5x value at least 6 out of 10 times are Eric Ebron (66.2%), Jack Doyle (65.8%), Will Dissly (63.6%), and Jared Cook (63.2%).

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