| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Arizona Cardinals | -12.28 | 3-12 | 0.0% | 32 | 17 | 0 |
| 31 | Miami Dolphins | -9.40 | 7-8 | 0.0% | 27 | 32 | -1 |
| 30 | New York Jets | -8.97 | 4-11 | 0.0% | 29 | 23 | -1 |
| 29 | Oakland Raiders | -8.32 | 4-11 | 0.0% | 25 | 30 | 2 |
| 28 | San Francisco 49ers | -6.39 | 4-11 | 0.0% | 24 | 24 | 0 |
| 27 | Detroit Lions | -6.17 | 5-10 | 0.0% | 21 | 28 | 0 |
| 26 | Washington Redskins | -5.27 | 7-8 | 0.0% | 28 | 18 | -2 |
| 25 | Buffalo Bills | -5.17 | 5-10 | 0.0% | 31 | 5 | 1 |
| 24 | Cincinnati Bengals | -4.91 | 6-9 | 0.0% | 19 | 25 | -1 |
| 23 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -4.85 | 5-10 | 0.0% | 30 | 7 | 2 |
We can finally drop the pretense that the Miami Dolphins were playoff contenders after their loss to the Jaguars officially eliminated them from contention. As documented frequently in this space, Miami was not remotely a quality team despite its solid record, because of a weak schedule, less-than-convincing wins and a string of blowout losses.
Washington also had its postseason hopes dashed over the weekend; the squad held on as long as it could without Alex Smith and Colt McCoy, but its solid defense was not enough to compensate for an inability to do much of anything on offense.
Over the past four weeks, Washington held its opponents to 0.08 Net Expected Points (NEP) per play and a 43.3% Success Rate (NEP measures each play's impact on the game's scoring margin while Success Rate is the percentage of plays that produce positive NEP; you can read more about both metrics in our glossary). The league averages are roughly 0.09 and 46.0%, respectively.
Its offense, however, was held to -0.12 NEP per play and a 40.6% Success Rate, marks which effectively ended the team's season.