Sony Michel's 11 games in the NFL don't provide an enormous sample size, but they do illuminate a larger point. Michel, as the first and second down back for the New England Patriots, is at his best when they are big favorites. Most backs are and Michel is no different. He can do the most damage when the Patriots afford him the positive game script to rack up touches.

He averages 3.5 more carries in games where the Pats are favored by a touchdown or more. Michel is even used slightly more as a receiver in the split. This week the Patriots are 13-point favorites against the Buffalo Bills (stay up to date with line movement using the DFS heat map), which sets Michel up for a good fantasy championship week.