| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -2.25 | 3-4 | 28.9% | 29 | 5 | -4 |
| 21 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -1.94 | 3-3 | 20.7% | 8 | 28 | +1 |
| 20 | Houston Texans | -1.31 | 4-3 | 57.1% | 19 | 19 | +3 |
| 19 | Washington Redskins | -0.9 | 4-2 | 54.4% | 21 | 15 | +1 |
| 18 | Indianapolis Colts | -0.74 | 2-5 | 10.3% | 14 | 18 | +9 |
| 17 | Green Bay Packers | -0.7 | 3-2-1 | 29.3% | 17 | 23 | 0 |
| 16 | Cleveland Browns | -0.63 | 2-4-1 | 7.5% | 30 | 1 | -2 |
| 15 | Dallas Cowboys | 0.07 | 3-4 | 25.4% | 24 | 8 | 0 |
| 14 | Cincinnati Bengals | 0.55 | 4-3 | 47.6% | 11 | 20 | -5 |
| 13 | Carolina Panthers | 0.73 | 4-2 | 49.2% | 16 | 17 | -1 |
No team saw a bigger climb in the ratings than the Indianapolis Colts, who jumped up a whopping nine spots after beating down the hapless Bills. Yes, the opportunity to play Buffalo helps, but Sunday's game was not your typical Bills' loss. It really was a shellacking.
For as bad as the Bills have looked this season, most of their struggles have been on the offensive of the ball, as their defense actually came into the week ranked 3rd in NEP and 10th in success rate (43.9%).
The Colts' offense responded by posting +18.3 NEP and a 50.0% success rate, the third- and sixth-best marks of the week, respectively. The performance was not typical of the 2018 Colts, but they also are probably a bit unfortunate to have only two wins.
Three of their losses came by eight points or fewer, while a fourth turned on a fumble in the red zone with the Colts trailing by six with 40 seconds left (that fumble was returned for a touchdown). They actually have a +4 point differential, which suggests they "should" have 3.6 wins.