| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Buffalo Bills | -6.87 | 2-3 | 7.0% | 32 | 5 | 0 |
| 31 | Miami Dolphins | -5.61 | 3-2 | 19.9% | 29 | 13 | 0 |
| 30 | Detroit Lions | -4.58 | 2-3 | 18.7% | 15 | 30 | -3 |
| 29 | Tennessee Titans | -4.57 | 3-2 | 27.3% | 25 | 23 | -7 |
| 28 | San Francisco 49ers | -4.53 | 1-4 | 4.1% | 30 | 20 | -2 |
| 27 | Indianapolis Colts | -4.01 | 1-4 | 10.1% | 20 | 22 | +1 |
| 26 | Oakland Raiders | -3.86 | 1-4 | 2.0% | 13 | 28 | -4 |
| 25 | Dallas Cowboys | -3.29 | 2-3 | 23.4% | 27 | 16 | -1 |
| 24 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -2.8 | 2-2 | 22.0% | 8 | 29 | +6 |
| 23 | Denver Broncos | -2.64 | 2-3 | 6.7% | 14 | 26 | -4 |
Tennessee dropped seven spots in the rankings after losing to No. 32 Buffalo, somewhat vindicating our models, which have been relatively pessimistic about the Titans for much of the year.
The Titans have scored 87 points and allowed 86, which suggests they should be in the middle of the pack rather than towards the bottom. This mediocre scoring margin has come against a schedule that has been considerably easier than average as the Titans are tied for 24th in strength of schedule, according to Pro-Football-Reference.
By our rankings, Tennessee has played the teams that rank 31st, 18th, 4th, 16th and 32nd.
Things look even worse on a per-play basis. The Titans have averaged 4.8 yards per play while allowing 5.3, and they have a minus-0.3% Success Rate margin (Success Rate measures the percentage of plays that yield positive Net Expected Points, or NEP).
Again, these rates look even worse considering that they have come against a below-average slate of opponents.