NCAAF
College Football Market Share Report: Week 10
Malik Willis makes his debut on a FanDuel main slate for Liberty, and his rushing volume might be a surprise. Who else's workload stands out entering Week 10 of the college football season?

Since many of the 2018 law changes that marked the return of college football daily fantasy, it has been quickly growing. After all, more individuals watched the 2020 National Championship Game than any other non-NFL sporting event.

With so many eyeballs on the games, and some monster statistics put up by the elite players in the sport, it is natural for many to gravitate to playing daily fantasy instead of traditional betting. FanDuel offers college football contests each weekend, which can include Thursday, Friday, and Saturday main slates -- depending on game volume.

College football is a unique challenge for DFS, as a lot of necessary information is not easily found. Often, injury news is reported through the schools themselves and newspaper beat reporters. It can also be particularly difficult to find accurate information on which players are on the field, who has the best usage, and where inefficiencies in the salary cap model may reside.

The latter point is the premise for this piece, which in addition to numberFire's betting guides and daily fantasy helpers, is designed to help you find out which college football players are on the field and seeing work.

With that in mind, let's examine the market shares for players on Saturday's main slate on FanDuel.

Note: Players with fewer than 10 pass attempts, 10 rushing attempts, and 5 targets in the previous week will not be featured but may still be viable in daily fantasy formats. For players returning from off weeks, previous reports will contain their most recent sample. All stats are from PFF.com.

Quarterbacks

Player Team
Name
Week
9
ATT
2021
ATT/G
2021
YPA
Rush
ATT/G
Rush
YDS/G
Sean Clifford PSU 52 33.1 7.59 2.5 29.0
Jarret Doege WVU 46 32.4 8.03 1.5 5.6
Aidan O'Connell PUR 45 30.9 7.18 0.7 1.3
Taulia Tagovailoa MD 40 34.9 8.48 3.1 16.0
Will Rogers MSST 39 54.5 6.56 0.6 7.9
Casey Thompson TEX 38 22.1 8.76 2.0 25.5
Sam Hartman WAKE 37 31.3 9.91 1.6 33.4
Matt Corral MISS 37 31.4 8.78 7.0 76.1
C.J. Stroud OSU 34 31.3 10.37 1.0 8.1
Sam Howell UNC 34 30.8 8.91 5.0 96.8
Anthony Brown ORE 33 28.0 7.92 6.8 51.0
Bo Nix AUB 31 30.8 7.18 4.0 30.6
Payton Thorne MSU 30 26.9 8.78 4.3 19.9
Gerry Bohanon BAY 30 25.1 8.93 6.0 22.9
Adrian Martinez NEB 29 26.8 9.39 6.8 65.7
Will Levis UK 28 25.5 7.25 4.1 29.9
Connor Bazelak MIZZ 28 38.1 7.02 1.1 6.4
Malik Willis LIB 27 23.2 9.50 7.1 96.2
Brock Purdy ISU 27 27.1 8.52 2.9 32.3
Dylan Morris WASH 25 32.0 7.07 1.5 8.8
Stetson Bennett UGA 20 14.6 11.36 2.3 27.4
Spencer Sanders OKST 19 24.1 7.92 9.1 40.3
Chandler Morris TCU 14 7.5 8.73 1.0 15.5
Max Duggan TCU 13 23.3 8.91 5.6 40.5
Shane Illingworth OKST 10 25.5 7.59 0.5 2.0


Welcome to the main slate, Malik Willis ($10,200). The Liberty quarterback and top NFL Draft prospect draws the struggling Mississippi secondary this weekend. His 27 pass attempts last week don't jump right off the page, but his 96.2 rushing yards per game do. Albeit against terrible opponents, Willis has eclipsed 20 FanDuel points in every game this season. The Ole Miss defense is allowing 437.6 total yards per game -- 98th in the country. This may be a step up in overall competition, but Willis is worth a look in a game very crucial to his draft stock.

Punting this week, Dylan Morris ($6,200) is hard to turn down. He only offered 25 attempts last week, but that was actually a fairly low mark for his 2021 campaign. Morris has exceeded 30 attempts four times this season, and he'll likely have to throw plenty as Washington is a 6.5-point underdog to Oregon at home. The Ducks are pretty poor against the pass. They're allowing 279.7 passing yards per game, which is the seventh-worst mark amongst all Power 5 schools.

numberFire's model has the Arkansas Razorbacks' projected team total at 36.87 against Mississippi State on Saturday. That is well ahead of their 30-point implied team total in the contest. With that the case, it's more than appropriate to like KJ Jefferson ($9,200) and Will Rogers ($9,100) in their respective game scripts. Jefferson is averaging 60.6 yards on the ground and could play with a lead, and Rogers is averaging an absurd 54.5 pass attempts per game in Mike Leach's system, so he will be comfortable trailing.

Running Backs

Player Team
Name
WEEK
9
RUSH
ATT
2021
RUSH/G
2021
RUSH
SHARE
WEEK
9
TGT
2021
TGT
SHARE
Tyler Badie MIZZ 31 19.8 64.5% 8 15.6%
TreVeyon Henderson OSU 28 13.3 42.6% 2 3.9%
Tank Bigsby AUB 24 15.8 48.6% 1 5.4%
Breece Hall ISU 24 22.3 74.8% 4 13.0%
Leddie Brown WVU 22 17.8 59.7% 7 12.4%
Kenneth Walker III MSU 22 21.8 63.0% 3 4.0%
Abram Smith BAY 21 15.8 41.0% 1 5.2%
Challen Faamatau MD 20 7.3 17.6% 2 2.5%
Jo'quavious Marks MSST 20 9.0 54.1% 10 14.9%
Sean McGrew WASH 19 15.3 37.4% 1 2.5%
Cameron Davis WASH 18 7.3 20.7% 1 2.5%
Bijan Robinson TEX 17 20.4 59.5% 2 9.5%
King Doerue PUR 17 13.1 41.3% 1 5.2%
Tayon Fleet-Davis MD 16 10.1 32.4% 3 8.3%
Ty Chandler UNC 15 15.1 50.6% 1 3.9%
Zamir White UGA 14 12.1 32.8% 1 1.8%
Rahmir Johnson NEB 13 10.6 29.4% 1 6.6%
John Lovett PSU 13 8.2 18.4% 1 3.3%
Travis Dye ORE 13 13.1 38.5% 5 12.3%
Kendre Miller TCU 13 8.4 24.5% 4 6.1%
Trestan Ebner BAY 12 11.1 29.0% 0 7.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. MISS 12 10.8 27.0% 1 8.1%
Jarquez Hunter AUB 12 8.6 26.6% 2 3.9%
Jaden Nixon OKST 11 11.0 3.3% 1 0.5%
Dominic Richardson OKST 11 5.0 10.6% 0 1.5%
Zander Horvath PUR 11 11.3 15.2% 2 2.1%
Dillon Johnson MSST 11 6.8 40.6% 4 11.3%
Christian Turner WAKE 10 8.6 24.7% 1 2.1%
James Cook UGA 10 7.1 19.3% 2 8.8%
Snoop Conner MISS 10 9.5 23.8% 0 3.6%


This is a volume report, but don't fall in love with Tyler Badie ($7,500) just on volume. The Georgia defense is allowing just 76.4 rushing yards per game, which is second in the country to only Wisconsin. With a split backfield on the Bulldogs' side, this game might just be a cross-off entirely.

However, the dreamy workload of Breece Hall ($10,700) is back on the table this weekend. Hall is averaging 22.3 carries per game, and he's essentially unopposed in the Cyclones backfield (74.8% rush share on the season). He's got a 13.0% target share as well, which is third on the team. Texas is ranked 110th in the country against the rush (206.9 rushing yards per game), and almost all of that opportunity belongs to Hall. He is the cornerstone building block of the slate personally.

I'm more concerned than I expected to load up on Travis Dye ($9,800) against Washington's 94th-ranked rush defense. Dye was presumed to have the backfield all to himself after CJ Verdell was injured several weeks ago, but he only saw 13 of 21 carries last weekend against Colorado. That could have just been because of the lop-sided score; Dye saw an 88% rush share two weeks ago. It's still worth getting to -- now especially with Oregon needing to try significantly to widen scores moving forward to make the College Football Playoff.

Wide Recievers

Player TEAM
NAME
WEEK
9
TGT
WEEK
9
TGT
SHARE
TGT/G 2021
TGT
SHARE
2021
REC
YDS
SHARE
Jahan Dotson PSU 16 34.8% 11.6 34.6% 32.4%
Wan'Dale Robinson UK 14 53.8% 10.3 41.0% 43.1%
David Bell PUR 14 32.6% 10.6 22.5% 31.7%
Josh Downs UNC 13 43.3% 12.3 42.4% 43.8%
Jayden Reed MSU 11 39.3% 6.5 25.7% 33.0%
R.J. Sneed BAY 11 39.3% 5.1 21.1% 26.6%
Rome Odunze WASH 11 47.8% 6.0 12.7% 10.1%
Parker Washington PSU 10 21.7% 6.4 19.0% 22.6%
Garrett Wilson OSU 10 31.3% 8.4 26.3% 24.8%
Joshua Moore TEX 10 27.8% 5.3 20.9% 12.3%
Casey Kelly MISS 9 22.5% 5.0 6.1% 5.3%
Marcus Washington TEX 9 25.0% 3.0 9.0% 7.8%
Jahcour Pearson MISS 9 22.5% 3.3 9.3% 9.5%
Carlos Carriere MD 9 25.0% 4.5 6.5% 8.0%
A.T. Perry WAKE 9 23.7% 6.5 21.4% 28.8%
Bryce Ford-Wheaton WVU 9 20.9% 5.9 18.1% 19.5%
Isaiah Esdale WVU 8 18.6% 4.1 12.7% 15.8%
Chris Olave OSU 8 25.0% 7.1 22.4% 20.3%
Xavier Hutchinson ISU 8 30.8% 7.9 27.4% 29.2%
Milton Wright PUR 8 18.6% 5.6 13.7% 12.9%
Rakim Jarrett MD 8 22.2% 6.3 18.0% 18.9%
Tyquan Thornton BAY 8 28.6% 7.5 30.9% 31.8%
Winston Wright Jr. WVU 8 18.6% 7.1 22.0% 23.4%
Xavier Worthy TEX 8 22.2% 6.6 26.4% 35.2%
Jaquarii Roberson WAKE 7 18.4% 8.0 26.3% 29.6%
Barrett Banister MIZZ 7 25.9% 3.0 7.0% 5.4%
Omar Manning NEB 7 28.0% 3.0 10.5% 12.8%
Quentin Johnston TCU 7 25.0% 7.1 25.4% 25.6%
Kobe Hudson AUB 7 23.3% 5.3 16.3% 18.5%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba OSU 7 21.9% 5.8 18.0% 23.4%
Antoine Green UNC 7 23.3% 3.1 10.8% 15.0%
Marcus Fleming MD 6 16.7% 3.6 6.5% 5.6%
Derius Davis TCU 6 21.4% 3.9 15.7% 15.0%
Brenton Strange PSU 6 13.0% 2.8 8.2% 7.3%
Tay Martin OKST 6 21.4% 7.6 26.0% 30.5%
Samori Toure NEB 6 24.0% 5.9 23.1% 23.8%
Jalen McMillan WASH 6 26.1% 5.5 13.9% 21.4%
Makai Polk MSST 6 15.4% 10.4 19.6% 20.6%
Dontario Drummond MISS 6 15.0% 6.8 21.9% 29.2%
Tauskie Dove MIZZ 6 22.2% 5.5 14.6% 16.5%
Devon Williams ORE 6 18.8% 4.3 11.5% 15.5%
Jaden Walley MSST 6 15.4% 5.8 10.9% 14.8%
Jackson Anthrop PUR 6 14.0% 5.0 12.2% 10.2%
Bryson Green OKST 5 17.9% 4.3 8.3% 5.1%
Demetris Robertson AUB 5 16.7% 6.0 16.3% 18.0%
Jahmal Banks WAKE 5 13.2% 2.3 3.7% 3.0%
Noah Frith LIB 5 16.1% 3.8 10.1% 6.8%
Jalen Nailor MSU 5 17.9% 7.6 30.2% 30.0%
Shedrick Jackson AUB 5 16.7% 5.1 16.0% 14.9%
Keke Chism MIZZ 5 18.5% 6.7 15.6% 17.2%
Theo Johnson PSU 5 10.9% 1.8 5.2% 7.1%
Ke'Shawn Williams WAKE 5 13.2% 3.0 9.9% 10.6%
Austin Allen NEB 5 20.0% 4.4 15.3% 15.6%


The wideout I deployed most often last weekend was Xavier Worthy ($8,000) of Texas. To my frustration, more of the volume went to sophomore Joshua Moore ($6,500) instead. Moore is definitively the top option for the Longhorns despite what the salaries may indicate. Moore has at least a 27.0% target share in four straight games. Iowa State has been brutal against the pass (184.6 passing yards allowed per game; 13th-best in the nation), but Moore's volume is too solid to ignore. Until that changes, Worthy seems over-salaried.

Baylor was not kind, either. Ty'Quan Thornton ($7,700) entered leading the Bears in targets this season, but they turned back to RJ Sneed ($7,400) this past Saturday. Sneed saw 11 targets to just a respectable 8 for Thornton. With the salary increase for Sneed after the monster game, this passing attack is harder to stack than one would hope, but it could be fruitful to guess correctly. Texas Christian is just 99th in passing yards per game allowed to opponents (262.1) and just fired head coach Gary Patterson this week.

On a brighter note, this is the first workable matchup for Wan'Dale Robinson ($8,500) in quite some time. Honestly, Robinson is under-salaried just because Kentucky drew Georgia, Florida, and Louisiana State in three weeks before exiting the main slate in Week 9. Now back, they have a pristine contest for Robinson against Tennessee. The Vols are ranked 101st against the pass (264.4 passing yards per game allowed), and Robinson's dominant volume is absurd. He has a 41.0% target share this year.

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