Every year, teams get into the NCAA Tournament that probably don't deserve to enter the final 68.
Whether it's conference or name or anything else, certain teams can get overrated and get a bid. Even if that's not the case and every at-large team deserved to make the cut, not all of them are strong teams.
According to our nERD metric, which indicates expected point differential against an average team on a neutral court, these are the five worst at-large teams in the 2018 NCAA Tournament.
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UCLA Bruins face the St. Bonaventure Bonnies in the First Four. They'll bring with them the 25th-ranked offense by adjusted offensive rating (117.0) but a defense that barely cracks the top 100 (98.2, 98th).
The Bruins do well to limit turnovers (38th in turnover rate) but struggle to force turnovers, as well (340th). Against the Bonnies' senior backcourt, that could cause issues.
Of course, junior point guard Aaron Holiday can carry this team himself. Holiday ranks 16th in points produced per game and has averaged 20.3 points, 5.8 assists, and 3.6 rebounds per game this season.
4. Alabama Crimson Tide
nERD: 9.52
nERD Rank: 49
Tournament Seed: 9
The Alabama Crimson Tide will square off with the Virginia Tech Hokies (10.91 nERD, 35th) in the 8-versus-9 matchup in the East region. Bama's 109.7 adjusted offensive rating ranks 86th in the country, but the 91.1 defensive rating places them 16th.
It's a strange defensive makeup, though, as they're 35th in effective field goal percentage allowed (47.2%) but 187th in turnover rate (16.1%), 277th in offensive rebounding rate allowed (30.6%), and 234th in free throw attempts per field goal attempt (0.368).
Alabama enters the tournament with a 2-6 record over their past eight games, albeit against tough competition. That's been their modus operandi all season, as they've faced the eighth-toughest schedule in the country.
They'll need freshman point guard Collin Sexton (32.5% usage rate) to continue carrying the team, especially if junior big Donta Hall (eighth in the nation in true shooting percentage at 69.4%) can't return from his concussion.
3. Syracuse Orange
nERD: 9.04
nERD Rank: 54
Tournament Seed: 11
The Syracuse Orange drew an 11 seed and will face Arizona State Sun Devils (10.27 nERD, 32nd in the country) in the First Four. Syracuse enters the tournament with a 20-13 record and a 3-5 record in their final eight games.
Despite a mediocre offense (107.7 adjusted offensive rating, 103rd nationally), the Orange boast the ninth-ranked defense in the country (89.2). That extends to effective field goal percentage, where they're 321st offensively (47.2%) but 15th defensively (46.8%).
The infamous zone defense has resulted in a three-point attempt rate of 43.8% against (21st highest in the country), but opponents have converted just 32.8% of those looks. The Sun Devils launch a three on 40.7% of their attempts with an above-average success rate of 36.4%, so that could end Syracuse's hopes to repeat a Final Four run.
2. Providence Friars
nERD: 7.71
nERD Rank: 68
Tournament Seed: 10
The Providence Friars actually led this list last year with a nERD of 8.92. They had an 11 seed and played in the First Four but drew a 10 seed in the West region this year. The Friars' adjusted offensive rating of 109.2 ranks 90th in the nation, but they boast a top-35 defense (92.8). The Friars simply don't do much at an elite level to stand out, and that's reflected in their 21-13 record.
The only offensive Four Factor -- effective field goal percentage, turnover rate, offensive rebound rate, and free throw attempts per field goal attempt -- in which they rank inside the top 120 is free throw attempts per field goal attempt (0.392, 43rd), but they're a below-average free throw shooting team (70.3%, 217th).
The key reason for Providence's inclusion into the dance is their 11th-ranked schedule difficulty. They face Texas A&M Aggies (12.05 nERD, 25th in the country) in the first round.
1. St. Bonaventure Bonnies
nERD: 7.63
nERD Rank: 69
Tournament Seed: 11
The Bonnies face UCLA in the First Four, meaning at least two of the weaker at-large teams will play one another before the Round of 64. The Atlantic 10 squad enters with a 25-7 record and a 13-1 record in their final 14 games (snapped by an 82-70 loss to the Davidson Wildcats in the A10 tournament.
The Bonnies rank just 74th in adjusted offensive rating (111.0) and 81st in adjusted defensive rating (97.2). That culminates in a 13.8 adjusted net rating, 74th in the country. Unsurprisingly, St. Bonaventure ranks just 69th in our nERD rating.
They can make the three-ball (39.8% from deep) but are just 269th in three-point attempt rate (33.7% of their field goals are three-pointers).
Where they make up ground is with their experience, as they're led by senior guards Jaylen Adams (12th in the country in three-point percentage at 45.7%) and Matt Mobley (17th in three-point makes with 102). They may have to deal with the loss of junior forward Courtney Stockard, who missed their A10 loss to Davidson with a leg injury.