Winning your office pool takes some luck. But you can increase your chances of winning with a little math, too.
The biggest flaw bracket-filler-outers have when making tournament selections is not analyzing what their competition is doing. They're (you're) just picking the optimal bracket without factoring in what others in the pool may be choosing.
For instance, let's assume you're in a pool with 100 people. You pick Villanova to repeat as National Champion, but so do 85 others. If Villanova wins then, sure, you'll be fine. But we all know the chance of Villanova winning the title isn't 85%. That would be ridiculous.
You may be thinking, "JJ, it's impossible to know who people are picking, so why does this even matter?" Well, friend, ESPN allows the impossible to be possible with their Who Picked Whom data, which is free for public use.
And by comparing those odds to what our algorithm says, we can find inefficiencies to help increase your chances of choosing a winning bracket.
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North Carolina drops off the list, while West Virginia rises to the top. Why? Because everyone and their mom is picking UNC to go deep in the tournament, which makes the pick less valuable -- you're better off not picking them and hoping they lose.
To give you context, the following table shows the 10 teams that are your worst bets to push into the Final Four this year:
| Team | Final Four Odds | Public's Picks | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 9.54% | 38.20% | -28.66% |
| Kansas | 31.27% | 53.30% | -22.03% |
| Duke | 16.71% | 38.10% | -21.39% |
| UCLA | 9.52% | 24.80% | -15.28% |
| Villanova | 36.34% | 43.80% | -7.46% |
| Notre Dame | 2.75% | 6.30% | -3.55% |
| Michigan | 2.14% | 5.10% | -2.96% |
| Maryland | 0.34% | 1.60% | -1.26% |
| North Carolina | 42.04% | 43.20% | -1.16% |
| Northwestern | 0.28% | 0.80% | -0.52% |
Despite Arizona having the 14th-best odds to make it to the Final Four -- per our numbers -- they're not a great selection in a larger pool given how crazy the public is for them. The same goes for Kansas and Duke.
Now, this doesn't mean you shouldn't take any of these teams to the Final Four. That's especially true in a smaller pool: you need less differentiation and variance when there's less competition. But if you want to be different -- if you want to increase your chances of winning in a setting with many brackets -- you'll probably want to avoid at least some of these teams.
The Most Optimal Championship Picks
Running through the same exercise above, here's a breakdown of the best picks to make it to the championship round:
| Team | Championship Odds | Public's Picks | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga | 30.15% | 13.40% | +16.75% |
| West Virginia | 11.76% | 2.10% | +9.66% |
| Louisville | 13.04% | 5.40% | +7.64% |
| Florida | 8.11% | 1.40% | +6.71% |
| Kentucky | 18.16% | 13.40% | +4.76% |
| Purdue | 5.03% | 1.10% | +3.93% |
| Wichita State | 4.23% | 0.70% | +3.53% |
| Virginia | 4.09% | 1.20% | +2.89% |
| Florida State | 4.32% | 1.80% | +2.52% |
| North Carolina | 26.46% | 24.10% | +2.36% |
| Baylor | 4.39% | 2.10% | +2.29% |
And here are the 10 worst selections to get that far:
| Team | Championship Odds | Public's Picks | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | 7.15% | 25.80% | -18.65% |
| Arizona | 3.29% | 15.20% | -11.91% |
| UCLA | 4.26% | 15.80% | -11.54% |
| Kansas | 15.22% | 26.60% | -11.38% |
| Villanova | 21.22% | 29.20% | -7.98% |
| Michigan | 0.58% | 1.90% | -1.32% |
| Notre Dame | 0.82% | 1.80% | -0.98% |
| Maryland | 0.04% | 0.50% | -0.46% |
| Northwestern | 0.05% | 0.30% | -0.25% |
| Wisconsin | 0.62% | 0.80% | -0.18% |
The Most Optimal National Champion Picks
Last but not least, let's take a look at the top picks you can make to be your bracket's national champion:
| Team | Champion Odds | Public's Picks | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga | 18.99% | 7.00% | +11.99% |
| West Virginia | 6.13% | 0.90% | +5.23% |
| Louisville | 6.16% | 2.50% | +3.66% |
| Florida | 4.20% | 0.60% | +3.60% |
| Kentucky | 9.81% | 7.60% | +2.21% |
| Wichita State | 1.79% | 0.30% | +1.49% |
| Purdue | 1.92% | 0.50% | +1.42% |
| Virginia | 1.80% | 0.50% | +1.30% |
| Baylor | 1.76% | 0.60% | +1.16% |
| Florida State | 1.57% | 0.60% | +0.97% |
Now for the opposite side of things:
| Team | Champion Odds | Public | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | 3.11% | 12.30% | -9.19% |
| UCLA | 1.54% | 8.80% | -7.26% |
| Arizona | 1.11% | 6.20% | -5.09% |
| Kansas | 7.16% | 11.90% | -4.74% |
| Villanova | 12.88% | 15.70% | -2.82% |
| Michigan | 0.15% | 1.10% | -0.95% |
| Notre Dame | 0.23% | 0.70% | -0.47% |
| Wisconsin | 0.20% | 0.40% | -0.20% |
| Maryland | 0.01% | 0.20% | -0.19% |
| Northwestern | 0.01% | 0.20% | -0.19% |
It looks as though your best bet this year is with Gonzaga, and our numbers really favor West Virginia, Louisville, and Florida, too.
Just remember to stay away from the chalk: Duke, UCLA, Arizona, Kansas, and Villanova are all really strong candidates to win the title, but they probably won't help you win a big bracket pool.