In the "second round" of the NCAA Tournament, we tend to get a fair share of blowouts. A lot of the time, those come courtesy of the lopsided 1-16, 2-15 or even 3-14 matchups. We get a few others sprinkled in here and there, as well.
One place that's very unlikely to happen is in the 8-9 games, when two teams are often evenly matched, and we, as viewers, are rewarded with a highly competitive contest. Let's be honest, though -- we primarily watch because 8-9's can make or break your first-round record in your bracket. They're nearly unpredictable.
Over the years, the total overall record in 8-9 matchups is 64-64. It's a coin flip.
But, if you make use of our tools, it's substantially more predictable. Like we have here, for these closely-matched games, you can use our nERD metric to decipher which team is actually better. nERD basically tells us the expected point differential for a team against an average team on a neutral court, where teams play in March Madness.
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Wisconsin Badgers come into the postseason having won 25 games and posting a nERD of 14.69, 22nd in the entire field. They are 3.48 points better than your average 8 seed, dating back to the year 2000. Their defense is the backbone of their success. In terms of adjusted defensive efficiency, they rank seventh in the nation and allow just 61.4 points per contest.
For all those reasons, this is the most lopsided of the 8-9 matchups.
Virginia Tech is pretty much your average 9 seed. In the regular season, they won 22 total games, including 10 in the tough ACC. At a nERD of 10.45, they're just .06 nERD better than those 9 seeds which have come before them. They're adjusted net rating of 20.04 speaks to how solid they are, but the issue here isn't them -- it's their opponent. Wisconsin's one of the best 8 seeds in recent years, and our numbers give them a 66.1% probability of taking what is usually more of a 50-50 game.
3. Miami (8) vs. Michigan State (9)
In the Midwest Region, we get a classic ACC-Big Ten clash between Jim Larranaga's Miami Hurricanes and Tom Izzo's Michigan State Spartans. It's also a more customary 8-9 game with a gap of just 1.6 nERD in favor of the 21-11 Hurricanes (11.83). The 9-seeded Spartans, who won just 19 games (10 in conference), will step in with a 10.23 nERD of their own.
Miami and Michigan State are really evenly matched offensively, with adjusted ratings of 111.42 and 112.88, respectively. The difference here is in defensive efficiency, where the Hurricanes have themselves in a tie for 17th nationally. Their 87.78 adjusted points allowed per 100 possessions is more than 4 points superior to the Spartans' mark of 91.91.
Miami's other distinction is their pace, which is the fifth-slowest of all NCAA Tournament teams. A pace like that will help to keep them in the game even if they get out to a slow start. Whether they do or not, the game should be a close one. We give Miami a 55.1% chance of advancing to the Round of 32.
2. Arkansas (8) vs. Seton Hall (9)
If you thought Miami-Michigan State was going to be a nailbiter, the matchups only get closer. With nERD scores of 11.25 and 9.76, Arkansas and Seton Hall have a difference of just 1.49 between them. The Pirates are the worst 9 seed in the field and are even a below-average one by historical standards. In contrast, the Razorbacks are a fairly stock 8 seed with a nERD just .04 above the average 8 seed.
Arkansas went 25-9 on this year's campaign and 12-6 in the SEC. They play at a pace faster than 72.7% of all other NCAA teams and average 79.8 points a game. Their adjusted offensive rating of 116.69 ranks 31st in the country, but their adjusted defensive rating of 96.53 is a little less impressive. Out of the Big East, Seton Hall won 21 of 32 games and 10 of 18 inside the conference. Their adjusted offensive efficiency (110.91) places them 59th while their defensive efficiency (91.99) falls within the top 50.
The Pirates will have the defensive advantage, but Arkansas' upbeat offense might be too much for them. Our algorithms have returned a 55% probability in favor of the Razorbacks.
1. Northwestern (8) vs. Vanderbilt (9)
Right now, everyone's deeply in love with Northwestern. Having made the Tournament for the first time in program history, they're a great feel-good story and are coached by a big-name coach in Chris Collins. Just be sure not to overreact to all of that.
With a nERD of 10.95, the Wildcats are 0.26 nERD worse than the average 8 seed and are the worst 8 in this year's big dance. They also posted an adjusted net rating of 21.42 with a top-30 mark in adjusted defensive efficiency (90.28). They're the 40th overall team in our power rankings and are more than worthy of a bid in the tournament.
The thing is they're matched up with a tough Vanderbilt team, a squad sporting an 11.17 nERD -- 0.78 above the historical average for a 9 seed. With an adjusted defensive efficiency of 92.66, they're nearly as effective as Northwestern defensively, and the Commodores are more than 2 points better on the offensive end.
The lower seeding doesn't appear to mean much. We believe Vanderbilt has a 50.7% chance of knocking off the darling Wildcats because they are the better team. But it should be close, and this has a chance to be the best 8-9 clash.