The Play

The Math

Here's a basic notion to remember throughout this analysis: when a team is tied and hits a buzzer-beater, it's not going to be as impactful compared to when a team is losing and hits a buzzer-beater. And it's obvious as to why: if they were to miss the shot in a tied game, the contest would go to overtime. If they were losing and missed, the game's over.

In this case, you've got a Wisconsin team that's tied with Xavier. They didn't even need a three, and they still had a good chance to win if the game went to OT. But Bronson Koenig drilled it, adding 41.7% win probability for the Badgers.