This game was only an upset based on seeding. Our win probability gave Wichita State a 75.84 percent chance to win this game, and the Shockers entered the game as a 6.5-point favorite, according to ESPN.

Dayton's highest win probability came with 14 seconds left in the first half when the Flyers lead by five. The game was played within a three-point margin for most of the second half until the Shockers stretched their lead to six with a late trey, pushing the lead to 51-45 and never looking back.