NBA
Which 2018 NBA Rising Stars Challenge Participants Profile as Future Superstars?
Using comparable seasons, we look at which Rising Stars participants are on track to become bona fide stars in today's NBA, and which aren't.

All-Star Status

Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers

Comparable Seasons Match %
Tim Duncan, 2012-13 88.97%
Tim Duncan, 2013-14 86.51%
Roy Hibbert, 2010-11 86.16%
Dwight Howard, 2013-14 85.22%
Shaquille O'Neal, 2003-04 84.03%


Among the players in this year's Rising Stars field, Embiid's 3.4 nERD (numberFire's proprietary player ranking that measures a player's total contributions over the course of a season, based on efficiency) ranks second only to the Boston Celtics' Jayson Tatum. He's done so while being restricted in minutes and for back-to-back sets for the majority of the 2017-18 season.

Being compared to the likes of Tim Duncan, Dwight Howard and Shaquille O'Neal is, to be frank, quite insane. O'Neal's in the Hall of Fame and both Duncan and Howard are headed there before long. When you factor in Roy Hibbert, the four have combined for 40 All-Star appearances in their careers as NBA bigs.

As for the seasons, Duncan's 16th year (at age 36) is the most similar. That season, the two-time MVP averaged 17.8 points, 9.9 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 2.7 blocks per game. He made his 14th NBA All-Star Game that year.

Through 44 games, Embiid is averaging 23.7 points, 11.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.8 blocks. Naturally, he was voted to participate in Sunday's varsity game -- and it's very likely we see him there for years to come.

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