MLB
Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis: Second Base, Shortstop

This has been the most unusual of season-long draft seasons, with an abridged 60-game MLB season awaiting us at the end of next week.

I've been taking a look at how drafters are going about their business this month, between how they're tackling the first round and how first base, third base, and catcher are shaping up.

Let's now take a look at the middle infielder positions.

I'll be using average draft position (ADP) data from NFBC's 12-team Sprint - Rotowire Online Championship drafts and comparing it to what ADP looked like in March. This should give us an idea of how players are now being valued and whether that's changed over the last several months.

For reference, I've included consensus projections from FantasyPros, which includes numberFire's own model.

Second Base

Rank Player ADP +/- AB R HR RBI SB AVG
1 Gleyber Torres 29.9 -0.6 203 33 13 36 2 .281
2 Ozzie Albies 33.0 -2.6 219 35 8 29 5 .287
3 Keston Hiura 36.3 6.3 206 31 11 33 5 .280
4 Jonathan Villar 39.0 0.7 205 29 6 21 12 .262
5 Ketel Marte 39.7 -0.1 211 34 9 29 3 .299
6 Jose Altuve 42.5 -3.6 207 36 9 29 5 .304
7 Whit Merrifield 67.3 -11.6 219 32 5 23 8 .291
8 DJ LeMahieu 76.8 -9.4 204 34 7 27 2 .298
9 Max Muncy 83.4 -10.5 176 33 11 33 1 .256
10 Jeff McNeil 100.1 -13.7 199 32 7 27 3 .293
11 Mike Moustakas 101.3 -9.5 201 30 13 36 1 .263
12 Cavan Biggio 125.4 -1.8 178 29 8 25 5 .243
13 Tommy Edman 132.8 3.5 185 26 5 21 7 .278
14 Eduardo Escobar 138.6 -22.4 211 29 10 35 1 .265
15 Garrett Hampson 161.8 35.7 144 19 3 15 7 .270
16 Ryan McMahon 173.3 6.3 178 25 8 28 2 .263
17 Gavin Lux 176.5 -7.7 177 27 7 24 3 .276
18 Kevin Newman 197.8 -8.7 196 24 4 21 6 .281
19 Brandon Lowe 204.7 0.3 186 28 9 28 3 .258
20 Rougned Odor 226.9 2.4 185 26 10 28 4 .233
21 Kolten Wong 233.4 -28.5 180 24 4 21 7 .272
22 Howie Kendrick 250.7 154.2 153 23 6 24 1 .309
23 Luis Arraez 253.1 -9.5 187 26 2 19 2 .315
24 Starlin Castro 256.3 -0.4 183 24 7 26 1 .286
25 Cesar Hernandez 265.5 21.4 184 25 4 21 4 .280
26 Niko Goodrum 285.1 1.6 182 25 6 21 4 .247
27 Jose Peraza 295.9 94.6 129 16 3 13 4 .278
28 Nick Madrigal 299.1 -21.5 145 20 2 14 6 .287
29 Michael Chavis 300.4 -34.1 164 23 9 25 1 .253
30 Mauricio Dubon 304.0 102.5 171 20 5 17 4 .265


- Keston Hiura is the big mover up top, now cracking the top-three second basemen, and as the projections suggest, he has a strong argument for being the first one taken off the board. He has more stolen base upside than Gleyber Torres and is a better bet for power than Ozzie Albies. But overall, that trio, along with Ketel Marte and Jose Altuve, project in about the same range, explaining their fairly tight ADP grouping. Jonathan Villar's value is more tied to specific roster construction, which I'll get into with the shortstops.

- The public may be souring on Whit Merrifield, who saw his swiped bags drop from 45 (82% success rate) to 20 last year (67%), and he's now 31 years old. His sprint speed remains solid but also declined last year. Throw in the limited power, and he's probably a pass at his price unless he really plummets.

- DJ LeMahieu, Max Muncy, and Jeff McNeil conveniently line up in a row as players eligible at three positions apiece -- something that could be quite handy under these circumstances. Batting average will be really wonky over the small sample because it takes so long to stabilize, which may partially explain why we see drops for LeMahieu and McNeil. Note that LeMahieu was just cleared for camp after being an asymptomatic case. Muncy's dip is a bit more surprising, as he figures to outdo his playing time projection with easier access to the lineup through the universal DH rule.

- As I noted with third base, Mike Moustakas just doesn't seem to be getting enough love. Of the 30 second basemen listed, only Torres and Moustakas are projected for 13 homers.

- Eduardo Escobar's Statcast metrics didn't really back up his 2019 power surge -- his barrel rate actually went down -- which could explain his sizable ADP drop. But that doesn't mean he's a total zero in the home run department, as he's still projected for 10, and this is a more reasonable range to take him.

- Speedster Garrett Hampson is on the upswing with Ian Desmond opting out and the DH rule adding more plate appearances to go around. Of course, we should always be prepared for the Rockies to break our hearts with playing time shenanigans, so don't get overeager in the draft room.

- Kolten Wong stole a career-high 24 bags in 2019, but the people clearly aren't buying. Previously, the last time he swiped double-digit bags was 2015. Still, stolen bases will be at a premium, and Wong's 86% success rate is promising at least. For what it's worth, the consensus projections give him the same number of swiped bags as Hampson and Tommy Edman, who are going far earlier.

- Howie Kendrick rockets up the charts with the universal DH and no Ryan Zimmerman (opted out) clearing his way to more playing time. It's unclear why Kendrick hasn't reported to camp yet, but there isn't anything to suggest he won't be ready. (Update: Kendrick finally reported to camp on July 16th).

- Jose Peraza is in a competition with Michael Chavis for the starting job at second base in Boston. Peraza stole over 20 bases in three straight seasons from 2016-18, which should be more than enough to pique your interest in a late-round pick.

- Drafters are starting to take notice of San Francisco's Mauricio Dubon, who can play multiple positions and showed power/speed potential in the minors.

Shortstop

RankPlayerADP+/-ABRHRRBISBAVG
1Francisco Lindor7.01.42193912318.290
2Trea Turner8.01.72153672614.289
3Trevor Story12.7-2.92123713357.284
4Fernando Tatis Jr.17.40.72053511288.280
5Alex Bregman17.8-1.51973912382.296
6Adalberto Mondesi28.08.61992872617.255
7Gleyber Torres29.9-0.62033313362.281
8Javier Baez33.03.42183512375.280
9Jonathan Villar39.00.72052962112.262
10Xander Bogaerts41.3-0.32103410372.295
11Bo Bichette44.014.4205328258.278
12Manny Machado68.4-5.32113112353.276
13Marcus Semien97.7-5.6214379284.278
14Tim Anderson98.5-1.3216318257.281
15Carlos Correa106.63.21842911341.277
16Amed Rosario133.0-0.5204255237.276
17Corey Seager140.49.8186308311.281
18Elvis Andrus146.9-4.8212285248.270
19Jorge Polanco168.9-8.0212337293.288
20Kevin Newman197.8-8.7196244216.281
21Paul DeJong199.7-12.92043011322.251
22Jean Segura205.3-13.7198274235.291
23Didi Gregorius242.1-26.3193279312.258
24Dansby Swanson250.06.0191266253.254
25Jon Berti264.1-3.3109162116.253
26Niko Goodrum285.11.6182256214.247
27Carter Kieboom289.025.6160235212.259
28Jose Peraza295.994.6129163134.278
29Willy Adames337.8-14.8191257232.262
30David Fletcher339.0-12.5176242173.285


- Only six players project for double-digit stolen bases, and three of them qualify here at shortstop. I really don't think it's crazy to consider Trea Turner as a top-five or even top-three pick when he could be a game-changer in stolen bases without hurting you anywhere else. Low-volume base stealers who normally pitch in 8-10 bags will be far tougher to rely on over just 60 games, so speed will be at a premium more than ever. Sure, there are risks for even the elite options, but in a season littered with question marks, you're going to have to pick your poison.

- Adalberto Mondesi and Jonathan Villar are the other two aforementioned speedsters, with Mondesi having the top overall stolen base projection. They both project as below-average real-life hitters, but if you don't come away with any speed in the first couple rounds, you might want to pounce. The good news is they should regularly have the green light on bad teams.

- Bo Bichette is the first double-digit riser at the position. He has enticing power/speed potential, recording a combined 19 dingers and 19 stolen bases between the Majors and Triple-A last year. However, he only succeeded on four of eight stolen base attempts at the highest level and didn't really show spectacular Statcast metrics to back up the power. That said, at just 22 years old, the arrow is clearly pointing up.

- Paul DeJong has dropped to around the 200th pick but projects for 11 home runs -- identical to Carlos Correa, who goes nearly 100 picks earlier. DeJong doesn't hit for average, but as noted earlier, batting average will be really unpredictable in the shortened season, so we shouldn't penalize him as much for that.

- On the other hand, I'm less interested in Jean Segura, who's also fallen about a round. Segura only stole 10 bases last season -- his lowest total since his rookie season (2012) -- and at 30 years old, his 65th percentile sprint speed can only drop even further.

- Didi Gregorius seems to be a forgotten man, but he could flirt with double-digit home runs as his projection suggests. He may no longer call Yankee Stadium home, but Citizens Bank Park is good for dingers, too.

- Top prospect Carter Kieboom is expected to be Washington's starting third baseman. He slashed .303/.409/.493 with 16 home runs and 5 stolen bases over 494 plate appearances in Triple-A last season.

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