UFC 288: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry within the sports world, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of the weekend throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action each and every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. No matter your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout here.

Without further delay, let's break down the 12 fights at UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo, taking place at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ on Saturday.

Claudio Ribeiro (-170) vs. Joseph Holmes (+138)

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Claudio Ribeiro was a modest favorite over UFC winner Abdul Razak-Alhassan in his debut and was flattened. Oddsmakers aren't shorter on him here.

I have a totally different handicap of this fight. Ribeiro was a home-run slugger in that one, but he defended just 41% of strikes and was looking for a highlight knockout while showing zero wrestling threat. Against good strikers, that just won't work.

Joseph Holmes has proven to be a pretty solid one. Importantly, he's absorbed just 2.73 significant strikes per minute behind an above-average 58% striking defense. If he can keep himself safe, he's got a three-inch reach advantage to poke away at the Brazilian.

Plus, Ribeiro's regional experience and his first fight showed zero acumen when grappling. "Uglyman Joe" has only lost in UFC via wrestling and grappling, and he's actually got six of his own eight professional wins by submission.

Never having been professionally knocked out, I'm not sure why things are slanted so far in that direction. I'd favor Holmes in both domains.

Betting Verdict: I'm showing tremendous value on Holmes' ML at +138, but he's also a fine dart by a submission (+380) given the enormous advantage regionally in that department.

DFS Verdict: At a $15 salary, Holmes' floor isn't the best, but he's an excellent swing for the fences in tournaments. I'd be more scared if he had a track record of a weak chin, but he hasn't been knocked down in UFC yet.

Ikram Aliskerov (-215) vs. Phil Hawes (+172)

Middleweight (185 pounds)

We haven't quite seen the Dagestani wrestling brigade take over 185 pounds, but Ikram Aliskerov will try to do so.

He's a heavy favorite in his UFC debut by way of that pedigree, but I've got questions about that. His fights against UFC fighters Khamzat Chimaev and Denis Tiuliulin are free on YouTube, and you can watch for yourself; he wasn't supremely dominant or impressive. Chimaev flattened him quickly.

On top of that, he landed just 33% of his takedowns on the Contender Series. It wasn't dominant. He'll have to pierce Phil Hawes' perfect takedown defense (100%) this weekend, too.

With four UFC-affiliated knockdowns, Hawes has the power to replicate the Chimaev result, and on top of his perfect defense, he also lands his own takedowns at a higher 36% clip.

Everything about resumés and analytics favors Hawes, who is 4-2 in UFC, in this bout. Aliskerov's camp, led by Khabib Nurmagomedov and Islam Makhachev, has a boogeyman-level reputation, but not all of those fighters win and succeed constantly in UFC.

I'll take the proven veteran at this number.

Betting Verdict: I got one unit down on Hawes at +175, but he's a great bet anywhere at plus money. He's favored in my stuff, and the KO/TKO (+320) angle is interesting after what quick work Chimaev made of him.

DFS Verdict: Hawes has topped 100 FanDuel points in three of his five UFC-affiliated victories. Against what I'm grading as a step back in competition, he's got a monstrous ceiling at $9.

Parker Porter (-170) vs. Braxton Smith (+138)

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

This is our weekly lesson on heavyweight just being wildly different.

Braxton Smith wouldn't have earned a contract in another division. He was knocked out in 2014 by Chase Sherman (4-10 UFC) and retired. Since returning, he's knocked out five regional bums, including his last opponent twice. That was Jakori Savage, who is just 3-2 as a pro.

We've got no evidence of any tangible wrestling or grappling skill. His striking isn't crisp or refined. He's a 5'11" ball of muscle who hits like a truck, and that's his win condition against Parker Porter.

Porter's portly frame often draws eye rolls from UFC fans, but he can fight. He's 3-3 with UFC, topping 100 significant strikes twice, and he's also added five career takedowns. His 51% striking defense isn't amazing, but he's only shown momentary lapses of a poor chin, but that includes his only fight of 2023. It was a swift knockout loss to Justin Tafa in Perth.

That's the drama and conception behind this fight. If Porter's chin fails him again, Smith can turn out his lights. However, any other outcome should be a dominant, explosive win for Porter, and regional knockout power just doesn't translate to UFC with a direct correlation.

Betting Verdict: I'm not laying Porter's moneyline given the danger ahead of him, but I don't mind a dart at Porter by Submission (+270) behind a hypothesis that Smith is completely unskilled there.

DFS Verdict: I also can't lock Porter into an MVP spot given the odds (greater than 30% in my stuff) that Smith does find his knockout. However, every other outcome favors Parker at an $18 salary that'll be largely ignored due to his perception.

Marina Rodriguez (-132) vs. Virna Jandiroba (+108)

Women's Strawweight (115 pounds)

This is one of the closer fights on the card by the moneyline, and I truly see an argument for both sides.

Marina Rodriguez is an excellent Muay Thai striker (+1.75 SSR) that has often handled everyone in this division there. However, she's a bit older than reputation at 36 because of a late UFC debut, and you've got to wonder if that played a role in a shocking, knockout loss to Amanda Lemos last year.

On the other side, Virna Jandiroba is a decorated jiu-jitsu practitioner with 13 of her 18 pro wins via submission. Jandiroba's three UFC losses have all come to other grapplers where she's a bit behind in the striking (-0.74 SSR), but she's handled anyone else who wasn't comfortable there.

Rodriguez, with a 65% takedown defense, has done a fine job keeping her feet in most situations. Conversely, Jandiroba (57% striking defense) has kept herself safe and comfortable at a distance to avoid a UFC loss via finish.

This will just come down to who enforces their offense better, and since she's closer to her prime, I'm leaning toward Jandiroba. Rodriguez ceded three takedowns to Cynthia Calvillo, five to Carla Esparza, and nearly a full round of control to Amanda Ribas before -- stunningly -- knocking her out. Jandiroba is a better grappler than all three.

Betting Verdict: I don't feel definitive enough about Jandiroba to bet her +108 moneyline, but slightly favoring her, there is a smidge of value there.

DFS Verdict: Over 2.5 Rounds is -230 here. Rodriguez has never been professionally submitted, and Jandiroba has never been finished. I'd use Jandiroba at $15 in very light doses.

Khaos Williams (-325) vs. Rolando Bedoya (+250)

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Rolando Bedoya might have the weakest resume to make a debut in 2023, but he's here as a training partner of former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira, who was originally scheduled to be on this card.

Bedoya has gone to a decision in 7 of his 13 pro fights, which is a bad omen entering UFC. He's scuffled with guys not sniffing this opportunity and tasked with dethroning multi-time UFC winner and knockout artist Khaos Williams.

Williams' profile isn't perfect. His 48% striking defense is low, but he's never been professionally finished. He's been largely untested by way of grappling but did survive there against more accomplished submission artists like Michel Pereira and Randy Brown. They both largely chose to strike with Khaos -- and won doing it.

Still, Williams lands over five significant strikes per minute and has a 1.40% knockdown rate. That's huge power, and he's a mammoth favorite over the newcomer for excellent reason.

Betting Verdict: I'm right in line with Williams' lofty moneyline and the short -120 odds he wins by KO/TKO. I don't see a reason to bet this with all the unknown, though.

DFS Verdict: Williams will be a pivot off of a heavier favorite at MVP, but he's got the multiple-knockdown, first-round finishing upside you'd hope for at a $22 salary.

Kennedy Nzechukwu (-176) vs. Devin Clark (+142)

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Just like last week with Waldo Cortes-Acosta (who lost), there's sharp money flowing in on Devin Clark, and I just don't get it.

Clark has been a benign, simple puzzle if he can get his wrestling (2.36 takedowns per 15 minutes) going, and Kennedy Nzechukwu holds an 80% takedown defense. That's a horrible starting point for him.

On the feet, Kennedy lands 4.63 significant strikes per minute with 44% accuracy, but that's projected to increase behind an eight-inch reach edge this weekend. Clark's 45% striking defense is also awful, which is why he was finished last June by Azamat Murzakanov.

However, I see another path for Nzechukwu this weekend. Clark's own 59% takedown defense is poor, and Nzechukwu flashed wrestling skills out of nowhere last year in Singapore and has a 55% takedown accuracy overall.

I'd favor him comfortably in both domains.

Betting Verdict: If you're willing to pay the juice, I see Nzechukwu as a -250 favorite despite this -176 moneyline. Clark's career-long battle with jiu-jitsu also makes Nzechukwu by Submission (+1200) an interesting lottery ticket to me.

DFS Verdict: I'll be largely alone, but Clark's poor defense in both domains could result in a coming-out party for Kennedy's offense. He's a top-five MVP candidate for me at $17.

Drew Dober (-225) vs. Matt Frevola (+172)

Lightweight (155 pounds)

I've already put my money where my mouth is to say Drew Dober is the worst fighter in UFC currently holding a three-plus fight win streak.

Dober's 1.06% knockdown rate might be the most overrated skill in the sport. In fact, his opponent, Matt Frevola, has a higher knockdown rate (2.30%) himself. Most are justifying Dober as a pick to win behind power, so that's kind of odd.

As a striker, Frevola's striking accuracy (41%) and defense (59%) are both higher than Dober's, but he probably doesn't wish to stay there.

Instead, look for "The Steamrolla" to pivot to his wrestling. He lands 2.39 takedowns per 15 with 37% accuracy, and Dober's 55% takedown defense is poor. That's how he lost to Islam Makhachev (understandable) and Brad Riddell (less so).

Frevola has two straight wins by knockout and is the superior wrestler. I believe him to also be better in both domains, which is why I've already wagered on the Serra Longo product this weekend.

Betting Verdict: I've got a unit on Frevola at +175. This feels like a gift at plus money. Because Frevola's simplest path to victory is deflating Dober with submission-attempt-free wrestling, I'd back him by points (+460) for an outcome.

DFS Verdict: Frevola at $9 is another quality underdog to pair with some of the strong favorites discussed previously. We can't discount a finish given his recent power surge.

Charles Jourdain (-192) vs. Kron Gracie (+148)

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Because most of MMA's key media figures are Canadian, the "Canadian Bump" is something I've patented on betting lines. Charles Jourdain is getting it this weekend.

Jourdain seems to be the latest Canuck to continue to rise in perception while losing fights. He was handled grappling by Shane Burgos and Nathaniel Wood in his past two, and "Air" Jourdain's 48% takedown defense is awful. He regularly loses to anyone with that sort of threat.

Enter Kron Gracie. Gracie is the son of Rickson Gracie, the legendary ninth-degree red belt in BJJ. Gracie is a black belt with plenty of international success in competitions himself. He's ending a near-four-year layoff to take this bout, and his UFC sample is tiny.

He quickly submitted Alex Caceres, who has multiple UFC submissions of his own. In his second fight, he couldn't get Cub Swanson to the ground and resigned to losing an entertaining striking match, but Kron has done surprisingly well to keep himself safe (53% striking defense) doing that.

Gracie's layoff is a concern, but he should be able to roll out of bed and get Jourdain to the mat. The real deciding factor in this fight for me was Jourdain's minuscule knockdown rate (0.79%). If he can't knock out Kron, that is a long 15 minutes to try and dodge a patented Gracie sub.

Betting Verdict: Gracie's layoff could actually present a slow start that I'm targeting in a unique way. His R2 Submission (+1100) and R3 Submission (+1500) props are enticing -- especially if he falls behind in the first round.

DFS Verdict: Jourdain's volume is good, but his lack of power has a ceiling in DFS considering Gracie's historic durability. We know Gracie ($12) can submit Jourdain if Julian Erosa did.

Movsar Evloev (-1100) vs. Diego Lopes (+600)

Featherweight (145 pounds)

This isn't a good fight; it's just about getting Movsar Evloev paid after Bryce Mitchell withdrew due to injury earlier this week.

Diego Lopes might be a UFC fighter. He handily lost to Joanderson Brito (2-1 UFC) in his trial on the Contender Series, but Brito's success is hope for his chance to maintain a roster spot. The only problem is Evloev is significantly better than Brito.

Evloev is on a shortlist of future contenders for Alexander Volkanovski. He's a complete package with striking (+1.57 SSR) and wrestling (4.83 takedowns per 15 with 50% accuracy).

The only drama in this fight comes from a method or daily fantasy perspective. Evloev has been known to play with his food a bit, going to a decision in all six UFC fights (and wins). This massive step back in competition could provide an opening for his first promotional finish.

Betting Verdict: Though I'll never pick up pennies in front of a bulldozer with fluke injuries, I've got Evloev at -2500 compared to -1100 here. I'd sooner bet his inside-the-distance (ITD) number, which likely is released Saturday.

DFS Verdict: Evloev at $23 is the control at MVP to all other variables. Fading him is a play on a super quick finish with few peripheral points, or he could go to a seventh straight decision.

Jessica Andrade (-200) vs. Yan Xiaonan (+154)

Women's Strawweight (115 pounds)

I was leaning toward the technical, defensive-minded Yan Xiaonan in this fight earlier in the week, but then I realized a trend. Jessica Andrade has begun to realize her own power.

In Andrade's last four bouts facing someone with fewer than two career knockdowns, she's averaged an absurd 171.8 significant strikes per 15 minutes. The sample is over a half hour of octagon time, so she really is walking fighters down and trading when there won't be devastating consequences.

She also has this second pitch with her wrestling, averaging 2.54 takedowns per 15 minutes with 54% accuracy. I can't help but remember when Yan was stuck underneath Carla Esparza, ceding the first career finish for "Cookie Monster" Carla, and wonder what a stronger Andrade might do.

Analytically, Xiaonan's 61% striking defense should be a tough out, but Andrade mowed through Cynthia Calvillo (64% striking defense) and Katlyn Chookagian (63%) because her pace and power were so much higher. The technical kickboxer from China could meet a similar fate.

Betting Verdict: Both Chookagian and Calvillo suffered first-round knockouts. A tiny dart at one here (+900) would be my only play from an otherwise-efficient line.

DFS Verdict: Beyond the early finishes, Andrade's striking volume is getting impossible to ignore when she's in a matchup without a power threat. She's a sneaky MVP candidate at $19 with the -132 odds this one goes the distance. Strike points count just the same.

Gilbert Burns (-132) vs. Belal Muhammad (+104)

Welterweight (170 pounds; Five-Round Co-Main Event)

I feel confident picking this fight as one of Gilbert Burns' longtime supporters, but he's struggled a bit in this echelon of welterweight.

Last month's win over a retiring Jorge Masvidal wasn't quite the statement you'd hope for from someone who wants to fight for the title at 170. He had just a +4 striking differential, coasting a bit on four takedowns. It's plausible he took it easy on Masvidal in his home city, but that's a rough look.

It's hard to picture more upside against perhaps the best defensive fighter in the division. Belal Muhammad has a 58% striking defense and an excellent 92% striking defense at its highest level, coming off a second-round dusting of Sean Brady in which he landed 80 significant strikes.

Muhammad is now training with Khabib Nurmagomedov and has never been professionally submitted, and if there's a weakness between these two, it's Burns' 47% takedown defense. Muhammad has landed 12 of his last 19 takedowns against better marks.

Over 4.5 rounds here is -148, so this one figures to be a five-round slog -- as most high-level battles at welterweight are. I can't wash the taste of Burns' last performance out of my mouth, and he's set to face who I believe is currently the best 170'er in the world.

Betting Verdict: I'll likely fire at Muhammad by Saturday night, but the bulk of the action is coming in on Burns. I can wait for a better number in this near pick 'em.

DFS Verdict: Though the finishing upside isn't too present in this one, the extra two rounds of volume aren't accounted for in FanDuel's salaries like the main event. The problem is these grapplers aren't striking mavens. It could be a trap to stack what is likely a defensive battle.

Henry Cejudo (-120) vs. Aljamain Sterling (-106)

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds; Five-Round Main Event)

I was worried I'd never get to talk about Henry Cejudo. He retired in early 2020 before numberFire started UFC content.

Personally, Cejudo's title run was largely a farce. He was a flyweight hovering in the middle of the top 10 before being next in line to face Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson. He earned an awful split decision win with a -30 striking differential and never rematched Johnson, who left the promotion.

Then, Cejudo knocked out a ghastly-looking T.J. Dillashaw at 125 before leaping to bantamweight. He defeated Marlon Moraes and Dominick Cruz for the belt and one defense, but those two are a forgettable 3-5 since fighting Cejudo in a division that's blossomed as UFC's deepest.

Now at 36, he's unretiring to "get his belt back" against Aljamain Sterling, who has four wins over current top-10 bantamweights to Cejudo's zero. Sterling mauled Dillashaw at T.J.'s proper weight class last fall in his latest defense.

Aljo's 41% takedown defense has been poor, but that's about my only concern for him winning this fight. He's a significantly better striker (+2.52 SSR) with a seven-inch advantage in reach, and Sterling has four UFC wins by submission to just two career attempts for the King of Cringe.

There's a significant gap in size between Sterling and Cejudo, who was a flyweight his entire career. On top of that, Cejudo's first red flag is the layoff exceeding three years, and the second one? Fighters older than 35 (Cejudo) are 2-28 in their last 30 title fights against an opponent younger than 35 (Aljo).

Betting Verdict: I've got Sterling closer to -180 in this fight. He'd likely exceed -300 if I made a positive adjustment to his takedown defense like I'm expecting due to size. He's one of my favorite bets on the card, and Sterling ITD (+270) could be worth a swing with all the questions surrounding Cejudo.

DFS Verdict: The salaries are elevated here, and the one to benefit would be the striking edge of Sterling at $19. Cejudo ($20) could pile up a few takedowns, but that's an odd proposition to target at a salary just $3 lower than Evloev.