Betting Guide for UFC London
A rising heavyweight prospect with a perfect analytical profile gets his stiffest test yet against a Russian striking stalwart. Oh yeah, this is not just a non-pay-per-view card outside of the Apex, as well. It's out of the country.
UFC London: Volkov vs. Aspinall takes place Saturday from the O2 Arena in London, England. Where are the sharpest places to wager on the card using UFC odds?
Ilia Topuria and Molly McCann to Win (+103; 1.5 Units)
The two-legger got back on track with a pair of comfortable decision wins last week, but the heavy favorites on this card made it slightly more challenging to construct.
Personally, Ilia Topuria (-550) is the safest win bet on the entire card. The heavy underdogs in other spots have UFC success to their name, but Jai Herbert really doesn't. Outside of a quick knockout in his last fight, Herbert posts terrible volume (2.18 significant strikes landed per minute) that will give him few chances to pierce Topuria's 64% striking defense.
Topuria is primarily a grappler, though. He's secured 7 of his 11 pro wins via submission, and Herbert has just a 30% takedown defense to keep Topuria from getting this fight to the spot he wants it. Herbert is the English fighter in this bout, but the showcase spot is all about Georgia's Topuria.
The harder choice was the even-money favorite to pair with Topuria. Still, Molly McCann (-138) stuck out like a sore thumb on her home card. The Liverpool native is an exceptional striker who has not lost in the UFC when she's avoided a takedown. Her opponent, Luana Carolina, failed to land her only takedown attempt in five UFC-affiliated appearances.
This striking match -- as most will -- favors McCann. "Meatball" has a solid volume (5.67 significant strikes landed per minute) that she pairs with a 65% striking defense. She's used her crisp boxing to eclipse 100 significant strikes in four of her seven UFC appearances. Carolina's 48% striking defense is a massive concern with that volume coming back the other way.
Tom Aspinall and Alexander Volkov Go the Distance (+144; 1.0 Units)
This line opened at +160 on Wednesday, so move quickly.
In what should be a fun main event, this is one of the best ways to back this fight with some unknown elsewhere.
England's Tom Aspinall (-115) is the slight favorite, and he should be. His analytical profile is perfect. He's posted 7.19 significant strikes per minute with a +4.89 striking success rate, and he's added 2.73 takedowns per 15 minutes on perfect efficiency (100%). Aspinall's level of competition isn't even a concern; his opponents thus far in UFC are 11-4 since the start of 2020 in bouts not facing Aspinall.
However, Alexander Volkov (-105) will be a tough out. He's got a +1.91 striking success rate himself in a larger sample, and Volkov's takedown defense is essentially perfect outside of a 14-for-25 effort by superstar wrestler Curtis Blaydes. Aspinall is special if he takes Volkov down at will while also being a far better striker than Blaydes.
Overall, there's great value in a wager that these two heavyweights go all 25 minutes. Between their combined 15 UFC appearances, just one has resulted in a loss by a finish. Derrick Lewis knocked out Volkov with just 11 seconds remaining.
There are paths to failure, including Aspinall's cardiovascular endurance being a total unknown beyond a second round. Still, the skill represented in this fight deserves better than just a 41.0% implied probability both hang around to the end.
Dart Throw of the Week: Paul Craig to Win by Submission (+350; 0.5 Units)
Are we really doing this again?
Paul Craig (+148) has scored three straight finishes as the betting underdog at light heavyweight. He's a betting underdog yet again this week despite an obvious path to winning this bout.
Obviously, Nikita Krylov would like to strike and avoid the traps on the ground of "Bearjew". The problem? No one really has. Craig has spent at least 60% of each of the last five bouts in a controlled environment grappling -- for or against. He'll either pull guard or move to his improving takedown offense. He's landed four takedowns in his past two bouts.
Krylov, normally, is confident in his own grappling. He averages 1.30 submission attempts per 15 minutes. A submission has decided 7 of Krylov's last 12 fights either for or against, but he's lost the last two of those outcomes.
Craig's jiu-jitsu is just on a different level than anyone else at light heavyweight. His 1.90 submission attempts per 15 minutes are second on the card to the featherweight Topuria. 12 of his 15 pro wins have come via submission.
This feels like tremendous value in a fight that should play right into Craig's style.
