Betting Guide for UFC Vegas 48
Two swangin', bangin' light heavyweights should make for a wild cap to the 12-fight card this weekend.
UFC Vegas 48: Walker vs. Hill takes place Saturday from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, NV. Where is the sharpest place to wager on the card using UFC odds?
Parker Porter and Kyle Daukaus to Both Win (-109; 1.5 Units)
Parlaying two confident favorites worked last week. Let's run it back.
Parker Porter (-250) is amongst my favorite UFC fighters to watch. Despite his physical frame indicating otherwise, he's a high-volume heavyweight (8.48 significant strikes per minute) who does a decent job of limiting incoming damage for his division (52% striking defense). He draws Alan Baudot in this matchup, and while Baudot showed plus volume himself last fight, he has just a 39% striking defense.
Porter may not knock him (or anyone) out with a 0% knockdown rate on 292 career significant strikes, but his only career loss to the ranked Chris Daukaus has aged like fine wine. Porter is trending towards the top-15 spots himself.
Speaking of the Daukaus clan, brother Kyle Daukaus (-250) is on the card as a sizable favorite. He's swapping opponents late to Jamie Pickett, as Pickett returns Saturday just 34 days after his win in January. Pickett was outstruck in that fight and has been in five of his seven UFC-affiliated appearances (3-4 record). He's generally seen as a tier down from Daukaus in skill here.
Daukaus' 40% striking defense is worrisome, but he's shown tremendous durability through it to get to his signature ability -- his grappling. Daukaus is second on the card at 1.90 submission attempts per 15 minutes, and he stopped the ranked Kevin Holland via submission before it was overturned to a no-contest on replay.
This is Pickett's first match with a grappler currently averaging over 1.50 takedowns per 15 minutes since his UFC debut -- a first-round loss by submission. Daukaus is very capable of inducing that result, as well.
Jim Miller to Win (+146; 1.0 Units)
Jim Miller (+146) made his UFC debut in 2008. We're still doubting him against inexperienced opponents?
It's a shock to see "A-10" here at plus-money odds against UFC newcomer Nikolas Motta. Motta was outstruck in his lone appearance on Dana White's Contender Series, and more importantly, he didn't secure a takedown in that fight. In fact, he didn't even try. He also has zero career submission wins, so Motta may not even be an adept grappler or wrestler.
Miller has won 11 of his last 14 fights in which his opponent didn't secure a takedown. I'm not sure what Motta's approach (and really, his skillset) in terms of wrestling will be, but if he's not trying on a weaker, inexperienced opponent, he may not have a path to beat Miller.
Newcomer Erick Gonzalez did have a path to beat Miller with his ground game, and Miller weathered an early storm to finish him outright on the feet. Before you wash the 38-year-old entering his record 39th fight with UFC, his losses since the start of 2019 have come against four fighters with a combined 31-16 record. He's not exactly getting crushed by cans.
Overall, this fight is at the very least a pick 'em given the inexperience and unknown of Motta, but getting the successful veteran at +140 odds is a steal.
Dart Throw of the Week: Mark Striegl by Submission (+600; 0.25 Units)
The world has changed a bit since September 2019. Some might even say it was a pandemic ago.
That was the last time Chas Skelly stepped foot in a UFC octagon. Skelly didn't exactly light the world on fire, either. He posted just a 7-4 record.
Don't get me wrong; he's an excellent grappler. He leads this card at 2.40 submission attempts per 15 minutes. He also was outstruck in six of his last nine fights before this leave against questionable competition by any standard. He's a bit of a one-trick pony.
That definitely applies to Mark Striegl (+172), as well, though. Striegl won 14 of his 20 total bouts by submission before a UFC debut that saw him finished by the now-ranked Said Nurmagomedov at bantamweight. It wasn't a cakewalk, to say the least. Curiously, Striegl moves up to featherweight for this one that profiles to be a grappling battle.
In that event, it's lofty praise to peg Skelly as such a heavy favorite exiting a long layoff. Skelly's grappling defense was suspect before serious questions about his modern ability. Skelly surrendered six submission attempts in his last three fights and was submitted by Bobby Moffett (1-2 in UFC) before that fight was overturned due to a drug test.
It's well worth this roll of the dice that the athlete in his prime -- who also possesses adept grappling skills -- can overwhelm the rusty veteran on the mat.