Betting Guide for UFC Vegas 47
A really intriguing matchup at middleweight caps this weekend's 13-fight card filled with young prospects.
UFC Vegas 47: Hermansson vs. Strickland takes place from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, NV on Saturday. Where is the sharpest place to wager on Saturday's card using UFC odds?
Carlston Harris and Shavkat Rakhmonov Under 1.5 Total Rounds (+108; 1 Unit)
This weekend's board is tough, but this number stood out to me -- so much it even felt like a "trap" to start.
Shavkat Rakhmonov (-250) and Carlston Harris (+198) have wasted absolutely no time cruising through their first four UFC bouts. They've finished two wins apiece, and three of those finishes were in the first round.
Rakhmonov has finished all 14 of his pro fights as victories, and Harris sports a finishing rate of 58.8% (10 of 17). That would be solid if not having to sit next to a perfect mark.
For that reason, these two have a tendency to impose their will in a mismatch. Notably, these two fighters have such a small amount of combined octagon time (just over 18 minutes), there is enhanced volatility in this fight environment. We really don't know a lot about just how good either of these two fighters is given the quick wins over lower competition. That only leans further towards a quick finish.
This is only a one-unit bet because there is a history of Harris taking his time against quality competition. He has decision wins over UFC welterweights Wellington Turman and Michel Pereira outside the promotion. Still, Rakhmonov and Harris have combined for 5.2 submission attempts per match in their first four appearances. Usually, one of these guys is quickly locking up a choke.
That type of frenetic pace provides good value on just a 48.1% implied probability that one of these guys gets it done in less than 7.5 minutes.
Jack Hermansson To Win (+180; 0.75 Units)
This weekend's main event odds were shocking to me.
I've been as strong a supporter of Sean Strickland (-225) as anyone since he returned to the UFC in 2020. With a +1.72 striking success rate, tremendous volume, and an 82% takedown defense, Strickland is a high-paced bully who can wilt someone that's not up to the challenge.
That said, there's very little we know about him at this point. His only opponent with a win over a ranked fighter was his last, Uriah Hall. Hall hasn't beaten a ranked fighter since 2014.
Therefore, I really like the value with Jack Hermansson (+180) given that he has a strong profile that's well tested. Hermansson has a +1.50 striking success rate, but he's actually more of a wrestler (2.09 takedowns per match). Historically, Strickland has been a tough one to get to the mat, but he's not faced a takedown attempt since he returned in 2020. Not one.
Hermansson -- one of the best wrestlers and grapplers in the division -- also has two ranked wins since Strickland's return (Kelvin Gastelum and Edmen Shahbazyan).
There's a nonzero percent chance Hermansson is the first to deploy a wrestling strategy that Strickland can't defend at this higher weight class. Strickland has had success striking at middleweight because of his speed, but "The Joker" is no joke on the mat. In a fight I see closer to a pick'em, I'll take +180 odds every time.
Dart Throw of the Week: Danilo Marques by Submission (+750; 0.25 Units)
This moneyline is one of the most confusing of the week. But, when the environment seems wholly predictable, why not fire a long-distance dart?
Danilo Marques (+340) is the largest underdog on the card to Jailton Almeida. I really don't understand it.
Almeida had a dominant win grappling on Dana White's Contender Series. As a result, his statistical profile does look absurd. He averaged 6.60 takedowns per 15 minutes and 2.2 submission attempts per match through that one fight. But, like his other 13 opponents, Almeida's opponent has zero official UFC appearances -- much less any substantiated victories.
Marques, on the other hand, is not just 2-1 in the UFC, but he also has more than seven minutes in control time in all three of his appearances. Statistically, he's been one of the most dominant grapplers in the light heavyweight division. He just doesn't have the submission wins to show for it -- like Almeida does regionally.
Perhaps I'm wrong and oddsmakers know that Almeida has physical gifts that will bury Marques quickly. But there is a substantial competition gap here. There are a lot of variables -- including cardio and striking -- that might be tested for the first time for the prospect. We've seen the veteran dominate grappling situations in every appearance and know how he responds to adversity.
Marques does not impose damage (just 1.56 significant strikes per minute), so he would have to win by submission or a decision. That bet is available for +410 odds, but a quarter-unit flier that his experience gap in grappling proves to be too much for Almeida seems like a small risk with a potentially great reward.
