UFC

Betting Guide for UFC Vegas 46

Chase Sherman needs a win to save his UFC contract. Is there reason to believe he can score one against Jake Collier?

UFC's opening week of 2022 has been chaotic with fights moving and shifting constantly. Still, some solid betting opportunities remain.

UFC Vegas 46: Kattar vs. Chikadze takes place Saturday from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. Where is the sharpest place to wager on Saturday's card using FanDuel Sportsbook?

Calvin Kattar and Giga Chikadze Goes The Distance (+158)

Giga Chikadze (-250) was just passed over this week for a replacement spot in the UFC's next featherweight title bout, but that speaks to his talent that he was considered. The Georgian-born kickboxer is on a finishing binge of late; he's won his past three by knockout, and all were started with a patented kick.

There's still reason to believe the iron chin of Boston's Calvin Kattar (+198) hangs around for five rounds. Kattar's been out of action for over a year following his last fight where he took a UFC-record 445 significant strikes from Max Holloway. Kattar's also absorbed 96 from Zabit Magomedsharipov and 116 from Renato Moicano -- now at a higher weight class because he was so large at 145 pounds.

Despite the damage, and an ugly 8.16 significant strikes absorbed per minute mark, Kattar has never been professionally knocked out. It's not even a hot take to say Chikadze probably won't inflict more damage than Holloway did in a record-setting performance.

Kattar's weak defense should be aided by the fact Chikadze is definitely measured. He offers just 3.65 significant strikes per minute, and that downtick in volume doesn't exactly boost the chances Chikadze finishes Kattar when Holloway couldn't.

Given a pace advantage offensively, don't be surprised if Kattar has more success in this fight than publically projected, but the plus money is too solid to pass up in this spot considering 9 of the 17 combined UFC fights involving these two have ended in a decision.

Chase Sherman to Win (+110)

A hungrier dog runs faster, so why not back Chase Sherman (+110) in the surprise co-main event this weekend?

Sherman battles Jake Collier in a low-level heavyweight fight, but surprisingly, the fight carries -148 odds to see the entire distance. That's because these two actually pride themselves on volume -- not power -- in UFC's largest division.

As a former middleweight, Collier has blistered the bigger boys for at least 123 significant strikes in back-to-back fights. However, he's organically smaller for the weight class, and it's noticeable in his power. Collier has no knockdowns across 266 significant strikes at heavyweight.

Surprisingly, given that volume is the strength of Collier (5.52 significant strikes per minute), Chase Sherman produces more output overall (6.24 significant strikes per minute). Plus, in just 259 strikes since returning to UFC's heavyweight division, Sherman did have a knockdown in a brutal finish of Ike Villanueva.

With a power advantage and comparable volume, and neither fighter offering any grappling alternatives, the underdog seems like better value in a fight he must win to secure another UFC contract.

Dart Throw of the Week: Dakota Bush by Submission (+600)

This is the truest meaning of the word "dart throw" imaginable.

Dakota Bush (+152) and Viacheslav Borshchev have never beaten an opponent with a UFC start. Truly, I'm not even sure how one would set the betting line on this fight given some of the names involved. However, with limited data given, we could make a decent inference on how the fight could look.

Bush, undoubtedly, is a wrestler and grappler by trade. Four of his eight pro wins have come by submission, and 8:13 of his UFC debut against Austin Hubbard was spent grappling. The fight was on short notice and Hubbard is a solid, UFC-proven wrestler, so losing that bout doesn't necessarily disqualify him from being one as well.

Borshchev found a stellar knockout on Dana White's Contender Series, but he did struggle with wrestling defense in that fight. He ceded two of three takedown attempts to his opponent Chris Duncan -- not of known UFC-caliber -- in addition to 1:19 in control time. Borshchev has zero pro wins or losses by submission, so we have absolutely no record of any success on the ground close to the caliber UFC requires.

Working in small samples, it's bizarre, personally, that Borshchev is +115 to win this fight by knockout, yet Dakota Bush has six-to-one odds in what appears to be his most likely domain to finish this fight. Embracing the unknown, it seems like a tremendous spot for a quarter-unit flier.