Betting Guide for UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum
After a rare week off from the UFC schedule, the Octagon opens back up this weekend for UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum (a.k.a. UFC on ESPN 29).
Overall, it's a tepid card from a name-value standpoint. However, there are no favorites across the 12 fights with odds shorter than -190.
That means we could see close fights from the top of the card to the bottom, which always makes for exciting nights of action.
But what about the betting value? Where might that be found on UFC odds?
Trevin Jones (-146) vs. Saidyokub Kakhramonov (+124)
This fight between Trevin Jones (13-6-0) and Saidyokub Kakhramonov (8-2-0) hasn't been on the card for long.
The initial fight in this slot was Mana Martinez versus Jesse Strader, and once Strader pulled out, Jones stepped in and Martinez dropped out.
Anyway, my betting model is really keen on Jones in this matchup, suggesting a 72.2% win probability, which outperforms the expected odds of 59.3%. This is the fun of a card without a lot of heavy betting favorites.
A positive test for marijuana stands in the way of a four-fight win streak for Jones, and that would include a 2-0-0 record at the UFC level. Kakhramonov will be making his UFC debut and has a 3-2-0 record over his past five fights.
The public picks at Tapology give Jones a heavy 88.0% chance to win, and based on the finishing predictions, he's 64.1% likely to win by knockout/technical knockout (KO/TKO). UFC odds lists him at just +340 to win by KO/TKO, suggesting only a 22.7% chance.
Austin Hubbard (-108) vs. Vinc Pichel (-108)
The betting odds are dead even for this bout between Austin Hubbard (13-5-0) and Vinc Pichel (13-2-0).
Hubbard's past five bouts have led to a 3-2-0 record. Hubbard, in fact, has alternated wins and losses over his past seven fights, and he won his most recent shot against Dakota Bush at UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Gastelum.
Pichel is 6-1-0 in his past seven fights, and though 8 of his 13 career wins have been by knockout, we've seen 5 of his past 6 wins by decision.
Pichel is rating out as 67.0% likely to win, easily outperforming the even odds available.
Further, the Tapology picks are expecting another decision win for Pichel. Of the 1,600-plus picks on the fight, 73.0% are backing Pichel, and 88.0% of those are for Pichel to win by points.
That implies Pichel by points to be around -200, but it's listed at +165 on FanDuel Sportsbook. The picks also suggest an 88.6% chance for the fight to go the distance (heavy -780 odds). You can bet the fight to end by points at -220 and not worry about which fighter wins.
William Knight (-174) vs. Fabio Cherant (+146)
William Knight (9-2-0) is one of the bigger favorites on the card over Fabio Cherant (7-2-0), but the model says he's not favored as much as he should be.
My model gives Knight a 78.4% win probability, outperforming the moneyline odds of 63.5%.
Knight is 3-1-0 in three UFC bouts, and he defeated Aleksa Camur via unanimous decision at UFC 253.
Meanwhile, Cherant dropped a UFC fight via Von Flue Choke to Alonzo Menifield in his most recent bout and also lost in the contender series back in 2019 via a flying knee -- to Aleksa Camur, who Knight defeated.
There's also heavy finishing prop value. The Tapology picks suggest that Knight to win by KO/TKO should be listed at -210, but FanDuel Sportsbook has it at +140.