Betting Guide for UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
This weekend's UFC card -- UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane -- is loaded with some big names, and the card all leads to an interim heavyweight title fight between Ciryl Gane and Derrick Lewis.
On the card, we have 6 (of 13) fights with the favorite sitting at -215 or shorter, via UFC odds, indicating a few one-sided matchups, but that still leaves plenty of close fights and value to be had.
How can we get action on some of the card's top fights?
Ciryl Gane (-355) vs. Derrick Lewis (+270)
Derrick Lewis (25-7-0) enters the weekend as the biggest underdog in any singular fight, making Ciryl Gane (9-0-0) the biggest favorite.
Outright, my model has Gane winning this fight 69.1% of the time, which isn't enough to want to back him at -355. There's a tinge of value on Lewis outright, given the long odds.
Lewis has recorded 20 of his 25 wins by knockout, and Gane has a pleasing 3-3-3 split with his 9 wins by knockout, submission, and decision.
The public picks at Tapology give Gane a 70.0% chance to win, in line with my model's prediction, but within those picks are 28.7% odds for Lewis to win by knockout/technical knockout (KO/TKO). That implies +248 odds. But we can bet Lewis by KO/TKO at +390 on UFC odds.
For that number, it's the ideal way to go for the main card fight if we insist on getting action on this fight, as Gane's odds are just too steep to back.
Jose Aldo (-112) vs. Pedro Munhoz (-108)
The co-main event is a bantamweight bout between Jose Aldo (29-7-0) and Pedro Munhoz (19-5-0).
Aldo snapped a three-fight losing streak with a unanimous decision victory over Marlon Vera in December, but Munhoz is just 1-2-0 in his past three fights himself.
My model gives Aldo a 57.9% chance to get the win here, outperforming his moneyline odds (52.8%) by enough to go with him over Munhoz.
Munhoz has yet to be knocked out, and we haven't seen a TKO from Aldo since February 2019 (four fights), so another angle here is for the fight to go to points. Tapology's picks suggest the fight is around 82.2% likely to go the distance, suggesting odds of -463.
The fight is listed at just -170 to go to the distance on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Vicente Luque (-110) vs. Michael Chiesa (-110)
Another tight fight on the main card features Vicente Luque (20-7-1) against Michael Chiesa (17-4-0).
Luque has won three straight bouts, earning finishes in all three. He ultimately has 18 early stoppages in 20 career wins.
Chiesa's win streak is up to four, though the past three have come by unanimous decisions. His five-round win over Neil Magny was quite decisive. Chiesa's path to an early victory is by submission: 11 of his 18 wins have been by submission. Zero have been by knockout.
So, overall, my model gives Luque a 58.8% chance to win, making him a moneyline value.
As for method of victory angles, well, we've got some. Tapology's public picks (which are 61.0% toward Luque outright) suggest a 41.7% chance for Luque to win by KO/TKO. That suggest odds of +140. His odds to win by KO/TKO on FanDuel Sportsbook are +250.
Other Bets to Consider
Angela Hill (+116) over Tecia Torres
Casey Kenney (-122) over Song Yadong
Drako Rodriguez (-114) over Vince Morales
Anderson Dos Santos (+180) over Miles Johns
