Betting Guide for UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt
This week in the UFC, we get a card headlined by a bantamweight bout between top-four contenders, Rob Font and Cody Garbrandt, and not a whole lot else, to be honest.
That doesn't mean the fights won't be good or that there won't be betting value, though, and often, cards like this wind up packed with excitement.
So let's dive into the fights that seem to offer the best leverage over at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Rob Font (-118) vs. Cody Garbrandt (-104)
The headlining event comes from the bantamweight division. Rob Font (18-4-0) is the third-ranked contender in the division, and Cody Garbrandt (12-3-0) is fourth.
The striking edge belongs to Font, who lands 5.21 significant strikes per minute, via UFCStats, over Garbrandt (3.35). Font also has secured more takedowns per 15 minutes (1.20) than Garbrandt (0.84).
As far as form goes, Garbrandt has won the bantamweight title, lost it, lost two more fights after that (including a title rematch), and then snapped that three-fight losing streak with a knockout win over Raphael Assunção (now the 11th-ranked contender in the division).
Font has won three straight, most recently a first-round knockout win over Marlon Moraes (the sixth-ranked contender).
My model gives Font a 59.6% chance to win this bout, making him a value at the -118 odds.
Of note, the public picks from Tapology are heavily anticipating a KO/TKO finish, as 84% of the predicted outcomes are a KO/TKO, implying odds of -514. FanDuel Sportsbook lists the fight to end by KO/TKO as -200.
David Dvořák (-148) vs. Raulian Paiva (+126)
These two fighters have similar professional records. David Dvořák (19-3-0) is getting the slight favorite love by bookmakers over Raulian Paiva (20-3-0), but my betting model is giving Dvořák a 65.3% chance to get the win, so there's value on him at those odds.
Dvořák, the 11th-ranked contender at flyweight, enters with a 15-fight win streak. Paiva, ranked 12th, had been 18-1-0 before going 2-2-0 over his past four fights.
They land similar significant strikes per minute (4.50 for Dvořák and 4.46 for Paiva), though Dvořák's sample is just two fights at the UFC level. Both of his victories were by unanimous decision.
What's interesting is that the public is super heavy on Dvořák. Tapology picks are 86% in favor of Dvořák to get to 3-0-0 in the UFC.
Dvořák outright is a good value overall, but this thing seems destined to go the distance. The public picks are anticipating this fight to end by points 83% of the time, making that finishing prop (-220) a strong value.
Cláudio Silva (-108) vs. Court McGee (-108)
We're getting even money on this bout, and that's a little peculiar because a lot of the data is pointing to Cláudio Silva (14-2-0) over Court McGee (19-10-0).
McGee, who is 1-5-0 over his past six fights, has the striking advantage, but Silva, fresh off of getting his 14-fight win streak snapped, has the takedown advantage, leading to a nice probability of Silva netting a submission victory.
Silva has secured 9 of his 14 career wins by submission. McGee has not been submitted and actually has 5 of his 19 wins by submission of his own. This fight to end by submission from either fighter is available at +240 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Outright, my model is seeing Silva 71.7% likely to get the win here, making him the biggest expected value on the card as far as outright winners go.