UFC Daily Fantasy Helper: Fight Night 2/27/21
Combat sports are one of America's longest-standing active sports to wager on. This was evident throughout the late 1900s as boxing took the sports world by storm. From Muhammed Ali to Mike Tyson, several stars were born, and Americans around the country placed bets on who would win boxing matches. Nowadays, with boxing much smaller than it was throughout the 1900s, mixed martial arts has taken the lead as America's favorite combat sport.
By far, the largest and most successful MMA organization in North America is the Ultimate Fighting Championship, commonly known as UFC. The UFC lays claim to the best mixed martial artists in the world and is showcased on both cable and pay-per-view events every month. As one of the most unique DFS sweats available, UFC daily fantasy is now live on FanDuel.
numberFire is always the best spot to get you ready for this weekend's UFC card. In addition to this helper, Brandon Gdula's betting guide breaks down where numberFire's model is placing their sharp dollars on Saturday's bouts. I also dove deeper into this weekend's card on the latest UFC edition of The Heat Check Daily Fantasy Podcast.
Without further delay, let's break down UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, NV on Saturday night.
MVP Considerations
Ciryl Gane ($22): Experience is just about the only knock on Ciryl Gane's flawless 7-0 professional resume. Gane answered a great deal about his legitimacy with a second-round knockout win over Junior Dos Santos in December, and the French heavyweight has posted gaudy numbers inside the UFC through that fight. He has the best marks on the entire card in strikes absorbed per minute (1.95), striking defense (73%), and takedown efficiency (60%). And while his defense and efficiency are nice, his 4.03 FanDuel points per minute are fourth-best on the card and show he has legitimate scoring potential in this five-round main event. Gane is a heavy -290 favorite -- and -120 inside the distance -- to make another huge leap toward a potential heavyweight title.
Angela Hill ($21): Matchups make fights, and Angela Hill has taken a matchup this weekend with very little personal reward outside of providing a potential showcase. A win over Ashley Yoder does not get her back into the title picture at 115 pounds, but Hill likely was game because this matchup is elite on paper. Hill is a volume striker (5.70 significant strikes per minute) with a 77% takedown defense, and that has allowed her to stay on the feet doing what she does best. If Hill does stay on the feet successfully against Yoder, Yoder is in position to struggle with her low 2.81 significant strikes per minute and poor 41% accuracy. Yoder's primary offense should be wrestling. Hill has defended 20 of her last 22 takedowns, and that significantly opens Hill to the three points per takedown defended on FanDuel.
Other High-Salaried Fighters
Sabina Mazo ($19): Sabina Mazo has yet to secure her first UFC finish, but her pace is going to break women's bantamweight contenders before long. She has scored at least 108 significant strikes in each of her last three fights -- all just scheduled for three rounds. Mazo is second on the card in significant strikes per minute (7.14) and third in FanDuel points per minute excluding bonuses (4.76), and that type of pace could break Alexis Davis. She could also choose to wrestle Davis with some success, as the Canadian veteran defends just 32% of her takedowns historically inside the promotion. A lot of paths to success in this fight favor Mazo, who will look to cash as a -220 favorite.
Ronnie Lawrence ($18): Dana White called Ronnie Lawrence "special" after his appearance on Dana White's Contender Series, and it was well deserved. Lawrence landed 12 takedowns in 15 minutes, and the bantamweight will surely aspire to some of the weightclass's greatest volume wrestlers like Ricky Simon and Merab Dvalishvili. He has a favorable matchup as an offensive wrestler in his official debut, as Vince Cachero allowed takedowns on five of seven attempts against Jamall Emmers -- who has a base style of boxing. This might be a showcase for Lawrence, and Cachero is untested, as well. But on paper, this matchup leans solely toward "The Heat."
Value Fighters
Montana De La Rosa ($14): Montana De La Rosa's perceived upside -- with no finishes since February 2019 -- is low, but her mid-range salary may be accurate upon second glance. Mayra Bueno Silva has been a special submission artist in the UFC thus far, but the striking element has been ugly. Bueno Silva has the worst striking success rate on the card at -2.30, and she combines that with poor 44% striking defense. De La Rosa -- albeit against higher-ranked competition -- is not stellar at a -0.35 striking success rate herself, but outstriking prospect Vivi Araujo in her last fight proved her capable at a high level. With a knockdown two fights ago against Mara Romero Borella, De La Rosa has flashed power before, and one strike in the correct spot could earn her a first career knockout.
Kevin Croom ($10): The counting stats of Kevin Croom are hilarious after he earned a standing guillotine win over Roosevelt Roberts in his debut in just 31 seconds. While his 29.0 submission attempts per match and 15.47 FanDuel points per minute are amusing, they do provide a lens into Croom's MMA style -- constant action. Croom has 16 finishes in 21 career wins, and while he is far from perfect, he does not have to be in his fight with Alex Caceres, which features a combined 24 professional losses between the two fighters. Caceres has been submitted seven times inside the UFC and posts just a 59% takedown defense, so the path is clear for the "Hard Hitting Hillbilly" to start his UFC career with back-to-back finishes.
Austin Swaim is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Austin Swaim also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ASwaim3. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
