Betting Guide for UFC Fight Night on 10/17/20
Fight Island has lived up to all of the hype so far, and this weekend is likely to be another banger. The bad blood between former featherweight title contenders Chan Sung Jung and Brian Ortega will finally bet settled, and FanDuel Sportsbook has plenty of odds: outright winners, method of victory, and more.
Let's take a look at the best bets to make.
Chan Sung Jung (-190) vs. Brian Ortega (+160)
Since returning from his mandatory South Korean military service, Jung has put together a 3-1 UFC record. And that lone loss came when he was knocked out in the final second of a fight he was clearly winning against Jair Rodriguez. On the other side, Ortega returns after taking absorbing a whopping 290 significant strikes in his lone career loss to then-champion Max Holloway.
Ortega does have the higher jiu-jitsu accumen among the pair, but this fight will likely take place primarily on the feet, where both fighters average more than 4.00 significant strikes landed per minute. Ortega lands eight percentage points fewer of his significant strikes than Jung does, and he absorbs nearly double the amount of significant strikes on defense.
The edge in striking here goes to Jung, and with his 77% takedown defense rate and Ortega landing only 0.51 takedowns per minute, the jiu-jitsu isn't much of a factor. Jung's past three wins have all come via first round KO/TKO, but keep in mind that it took 290 punches for Ortega to finally be put away in his last fight. The number of rounds prop bet is not listed as of writing, but it if it pops up at 2.5, the over is the bet to make. As it stand now, with the fight priced at -330 to not go the distance, the smart bet is on Jung by TKO or submission at +100.
Jessica Andrade (-168) vs. Katlyn Chookagian (+136)
Katlyn Chookagian rebounded from her third round KO loss to flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko by defeating her sister, Antonina Shevchenko, in May. Now she will take on former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade, who is moving up to 125 for the first time in her 17-fight UFC career.
Andrade put together a solid 7-3 record at 115 pounds, with the three losses all coming to a current or former champion. Where it gets interesting is that she actually started her UFC career at bantamweight, putting together a 4-3 record against lesser competition.
Moving back up a weight class, Andrade will have a six-inch reach disadvantage and be the shorter fighter by eight inches. She averages 3.02 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, but she will have a much tougher test pulling off one of those against the bigger, rangier fighter, and Chookagian has never been submitted on the ground anyway.
With the significant size advantage in Chookagian's favor and a decorated UFC resume already under her belt, it's weird to see Chookagian as the underdog in this fight. That makes her a great value bet.
James Krause (-156) vs. Claudio Silva (+126)
Here is a matchup between two longtime UFC veterans in the welterweight division. Claudio Silva holds a perfect 5-0 UFC record, but that is quite a small sample for someone who has been in the organization for more than six years. James Krause dropped a split decision to Trevin Giles in his most recent fight, putting an end to his six-fight winning streak. But it's important to note that fight was at 185 pounds.
Back at 170, Krause will have a three-inch height and two-inch reach advantage in this matchup. He also throws at a much higher volume, averaging 1.85 more significant strikes landed per minute than Silva. Krause does absorb a high 4.09 significant strikes per minute, but that is heavily tied to the high volume that has been thrown at him. Considering he carries a high 60% defense rate and Silva isn't a high-volume striker, Krause has the advantage on the feet in this one.
Silva averages a high 3.32 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has submitted each of his past three opponents. But Krause has not been submitted in 10 years and has been competing recently in high level grappling competitions. A -156 line is not a big enough line to scare away bettors, and the bet to make in this one is on the favorite.